Brentford vs Aston Villa: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer English League Cup Brentford - Aston Villa
Result
2:1 penalties
16/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : EFL Cup - 1/16-finals
  • Referee: Brooks J. (Eng)
Brentford - Aston Villa - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.590.71
Ball Possession
46%54%
Total shots
1012
Shots on target
36
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
33
Passes
84% (353/420)89% (435/491)
Yellow Cards
02
Expected Goals (xG)
0.590.71
xG on target (xGOT)
1.551.33
Total shots
1012
Shots on target
36
Shots off target
45
Blocked Shots
31
Shots inside the Box
74
Shots outside the Box
38
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
33
Touches in opposition box
1824
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
80
Free Kicks
1012
Passes
84% (353/420)89% (435/491)
Long passes
48% (21/44)43% (16/37)
Passes in final third
60% (40/67)85% (125/147)
Crosses
29% (4/14)20% (3/15)
Expected assists (xA)
0.580.64
Throw-ins
179
Fouls
1210
Tackles
37% (7/19)64% (7/11)
Duels won
4531
Clearances
2622
Interceptions
87
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
20
Goalkeeper Saves
52
xGOT faced
1.331.55
Goals prevented
0.330.55

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 25', Guessand E. 🟨,
  • 43', 0 - 1, Elliott H. , McGinn J. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Janelt V. , Yarmolyuk Y. ,
  • 52', Ajer K. , Collins N. ,
  • 57', 1 - 1, Hickey A. ,
  • 67', Elliott H. , Watkins O. ,
  • 67', Malen D. , Rogers M. ,
  • 68', Milambo A. , Nelson R. ,
  • 68', Bogarde L. 🟨,
  • 74', Sancho J. , Buendia E. ,
  • 74', Bogarde L. , Kamara B. ,
  • 78', Ouattara Da. , Damsgaard M. ,
  • 78', Hickey A. , Kayode M. ,
  • 80', Guessand E. , Jimoh-Aloba J. ,
  • Penalties (4 - 2)
  • 1, McGinn J. (Pen),
  • 1, Carvalho F. (Pen),
  • 2, Watkins O. (Pen),
  • 2, Nelson R. (Pen),
  • 3, Buendia E. (Pen),
  • 3, Yarmolyuk Y. (Pen),
  • 4, Cash M. (Pen),
  • 4, Damsgaard M. (Pen),

Chances of winning


Brentford
22.9%
Draw
26.2%
Aston Villa
51%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
33.4% 26.3% 40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4% 27.1% 41.5%

Brentford - Aston Villa Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)
4.66
(2.83)
3.9
(3.58)
2.02
(2.34)
-3.5%
(6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Brentford - Aston Villa?
  • Users Predictions: Brentford will win (20 of 22 users predict this - 90.91%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 78.9%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Brentford will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brentford won 1.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Brentford: Gustavo Nunes (Hamstring Injury) Maghoma P. (Hamstring Injury)
    • There will not play in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Lacking Match Fitness) Garcia A. (Knock) Kamara B. (Hamstring Injury) Onana A. (Hamstring Injury)
    • In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Brentford won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:23. (average 1.4:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Brentford won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:6. (average 1.4:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Brentford - Aston Villa were as follows:
    23.08.2025 Brentford - Aston Villa 1:0
    08.03.2025 Brentford - Aston Villa 0:1
    04.12.2024 Aston Villa - Brentford 3:1
    06.04.2024 Aston Villa - Brentford 3:3
    17.12.2023 Brentford - Aston Villa 1:2
    Latest results of Brentford
    13.09.2025 Brentford - Chelsea 2:2
    30.08.2025 Sunderland - Brentford 2:1
    26.08.2025 Bournemouth - Brentford 0:2
    23.08.2025 Brentford - Aston Villa 1:0
    Latest results of Aston Villa
    13.09.2025 Everton - Aston Villa 0:0
    23.08.2025 Brentford - Aston Villa 1:0
    10.08.2025 Villarreal - Aston Villa 0:2
    Draw
    Main

    1/64-finals
    1BirminghamSheffield Utd2 : 1
    2BlackpoolPort Vale0 : 1
    4ByeArsenal
    5BarnsleyFleetwood3 : 2
    6SalfordRotherham0 : 1
    7Oxford UtdColchester1 : 0
    8ByeBrighton
    9LiverpoolBye
    11WatfordNorwich1 : 2
    12NorthamptonSouthampton0 : 1
    13Crystal PalaceBye
    15NewportMillwall0 : 1
    16CoventryLuton1 : 0
    17BarrowPreston0 : 1
    18WrexhamHull4 : 3
    19PortsmouthReading1 : 2
    20GillinghamAFC Wimbledon1 : 2
    21BurnleyBye
    22West BromDerby1 : 2
    23CardiffSwindon2 : 1
    24CheltenhamExeter2 : 0
    25WolvesBye
    26ByeWest Ham
    27EvertonBye
    28ChesterfieldMansfield0 : 2
    29TranmereBurton1 : 2
    30HarrogateLincoln1 : 3
    32ByeChelsea
    33SwanseaCrawley3 : 1
    34PlymouthQPR3 : 2
    36ByeNottingham
    37SunderlandBye
    38HuddersfieldLeicester3 : 2
    40ByeManchester City
    41BoltonSheffield Wed3 : 4
    42ByeLeeds
    43GrimsbyShrewsbury3 : 1
    44ByeManchester Utd
    45BournemouthBye
    46ByeBrentford
    48ByeAston Villa
    49NewcastleBye
    51StokeWalsall1 : 0
    52BlackburnBradford City1 : 2
    53TottenhamBye
    55AccringtonPeterborough2 : 1
    56MiddlesbroughDoncaster0 : 4
    57WiganNotts Co1 : 0
    58Stockport CountyCrewe3 : 1
    59BromleyIpswich2 : 1
    60Leyton OrientWycombe0 : 1
    61FulhamBye
    62Bristol CityMK Dons2 : 0
    63Bristol RoversCambridge Utd0 : 2
    64CharltonStevenage3 : 1

    1/32-finals
    1BirminghamPort Vale0 : 1
    2ByeArsenal
    3BarnsleyRotherham2 : 1
    4Oxford UtdBrighton0 : 6
    5LiverpoolBye
    6NorwichSouthampton0 : 3
    7Crystal PalaceBye
    8MillwallCoventry2 : 1
    9PrestonWrexham2 : 3
    10ReadingAFC Wimbledon2 : 1
    11BurnleyDerby2 : 1
    12CardiffCheltenham3 : 0
    13WolvesWest Ham3 : 2
    14EvertonMansfield2 : 0
    15BurtonLincoln0 : 1
    16ByeChelsea
    17SwanseaPlymouth2 : 1
    18ByeNottingham
    19SunderlandHuddersfield1 : 2
    20ByeManchester City
    21Sheffield WedLeeds2 : 1
    22GrimsbyManchester Utd3 : 2
    23BournemouthBrentford0 : 2
    24ByeAston Villa
    25NewcastleBye
    26StokeBradford City0 : 3
    27TottenhamBye
    28AccringtonDoncaster0 : 2
    29WiganStockport County1 : 0
    30BromleyWycombe1 : 2
    31FulhamBristol City2 : 0
    32Cambridge UtdCharlton3 : 1

    1/16-finals
    1Port ValeArsenal0 : 2
    2BarnsleyBrighton0 : 6
    3LiverpoolSouthampton2 : 1
    4Crystal PalaceMillwall2 : 1
    5WrexhamReading2 : 0
    6BurnleyCardiff1 : 2
    7WolvesEverton2 : 0
    8LincolnChelsea1 : 2
    9SwanseaNottingham3 : 2
    10HuddersfieldManchester City0 : 2
    11Sheffield WedGrimsby0 : 1
    12BrentfordAston Villa2 : 1
    13NewcastleBradford City4 : 1
    14TottenhamDoncaster3 : 0
    15WiganWycombe0 : 2
    16FulhamCambridge Utd1 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1ArsenalBrighton2 : 0
    2LiverpoolCrystal Palace0 : 3
    3WrexhamCardiff1 : 2
    4WolvesChelsea3 : 4
    5SwanseaManchester City1 : 3
    6GrimsbyBrentford0 : 5
    7NewcastleTottenham2 : 0
    8WycombeFulham1 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1ArsenalCrystal Palace
    2CardiffChelsea
    3Manchester CityBrentford
    4NewcastleFulham
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