AEK Larnaca vs AZ Alkmaar: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer UEFA Europa Conference League AEK Larnaca - AZ Alkmaar
Result
4:0
02/10/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Conference League - League phase - Round 1
  • Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)
AEK Larnaca - AZ Alkmaar - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.730.48
Ball Possession
69%31%
Total shots
226
Shots on target
102
Big Chances
71
Corner Kicks
62
Passes
92% (519/566)74% (194/263)
Yellow Cards
23
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
2.730.48
xG on target (xGOT)
4.550.13
Total shots
226
Shots on target
102
Shots off target
102
Blocked Shots
22
Shots inside the Box
155
Shots outside the Box
71
Hit the Woodwork
20
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
71
Corner Kicks
62
Touches in opposition box
4113
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
813
Passes
92% (519/566)74% (194/263)
Long passes
74% (23/31)33% (18/54)
Passes in final third
87% (189/218)58% (49/84)
Crosses
34% (12/35)17% (1/6)
Expected assists (xA)
2.620.75
Throw-ins
2210
Fouls
138
Tackles
71% (10/14)73% (11/15)
Duels won
4347
Clearances
1636
Interceptions
97
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
26
xGOT faced
0.134.55
Goals prevented
0.130.55

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 2', Penetra 🟥,
  • 25', 1 - 0, Rubio W. , Bajic R. (A),
  • 26', Daal R. , Chavez Garcia M. ,
  • 28', Milicevic H. 🟨,
  • 33', Goes W. 🟨,
  • 34', Weslley Patati 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
  • 54', 2 - 0, Bajic R. , Ledes Gustavo (A),
  • 57', Ekpolo G. , Miramon ,
  • 64', Mijnans S. , Sin M. ,
  • 64', Meerdink M. , Zeefuik L. ,
  • 64', Goes W. , Jensen I. ,
  • 68', Chavez Garcia M. 🟨,
  • 72', Rubio W. , Ivanovic D. ,
  • 72', Bajic R. , Naoum G. ,
  • 72', Kasius D. , Dijkstra E. ,
  • 73', 3 - 0, Ivanovic D. , Chacon Y. (A),
  • 83', 4 - 0, Rohden M. ,
  • 84', Chacon Y. , Mathias Gonzalez ,
  • 84', Pons P. , Gerasimou D. ,
  • 90+2', Gerasimou D. 🟨,

Chances of winning


AEK Larnaca
34.1%
Draw
29%
AZ Alkmaar
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
26.9% 27.6% 45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.8% 26.5% 47.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • AEK Larnaca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AEK Larnaca's performance.
  • AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AZ Alkmaar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Larnaca than the current prediction. (-8.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AEK Larnaca that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+10.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AZ Alkmaar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • AEK Larnaca - AZ Alkmaar Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.96
    (3.47)
    3.53
    (3.38)
    2.87
    (2.05)
    -3%
    (7.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for AEK Larnaca - AZ Alkmaar?
  • Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. AEK Larnaca will win (votes: 4 - 13.3%). AZ will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 61.6%91.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. AEK Larnaca (votes: 2 - 28.6%). AZ (votes: 5 - 71.4%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • AEK Larnaca is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • In recent matches, AZ has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • AEK Larnaca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • AZ will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in AEK Larnaca: Angielski K. (Muscle Injury) Cabrera E. (Injury) Garcia A. (Muscle Injury) Komar K. (Broken Hand) Saborit E. (Red Card)
    • There will not play in AZ: Maikuma S. (Knee Injury) Parrott T. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in AZ: Koopmeiners P. (Injury) Mastoras E. (Injury) Smit K. (Hip Injury)
    • The teams have not played against each other recently.
    Latest results of AEK Larnaca
    17.09.2025 Omonia - AEK Larnaca 1:0
    13.09.2025 Anorthosis - AEK Larnaca 1:1
    31.08.2025 AEK Larnaca - AEL Limassol 2:0
    Latest results of AZ Alkmaar
    28.09.2025 NEC Nijmegen - AZ Alkmaar 2:1
    24.09.2025 AZ Alkmaar - Zwolle 2:2
    21.09.2025 AZ Alkmaar - Feyenoord 3:3
    31.08.2025 NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar 0:1
    UEFA Europa Conference League Table
    League phase
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Zrinjski11005:053
    2AEK Larnaca11004:043
    3Sparta Prague11004:133
    4Lech Poznan11004:133
    5Lausanne11003:033
    6Celje11003:123
    7Crystal Palace11002:023
    8Rayo Vallecano11002:023
    9Fiorentina11002:023
    10Rakow11002:023
    11Shakhtar Donetsk11003:213
    12Strasbourg11002:113
    13Mainz11001:013
    14Samsunspor11001:013
    15Jagiellonia11001:013
    16Noah11001:013
    17Drita10101:101
    18KuPS10101:101
    19Hacken10100:001
    20Shelbourne10100:001
    21Aberdeen10012:3-10
    22Slovan Bratislava10011:2-10
    23Rijeka10010:1-10
    24Omonia10010:1-10
    25Legia10010:1-10
    26Hamrun10010:1-10
    27AEK Athens FC10011:3-20
    28Sigma Olomouc10010:2-20
    29Dyn. Kyiv10010:2-20
    30Shkendija10010:2-20
    31Univ. Craiova10010:2-20
    32SK Rapid10011:4-30
    33Shamrock Rovers10011:4-30
    34Breidablik10010:3-30
    35AZ Alkmaar10010:4-40
    36Lincoln Red Imps10010:5-50

          Promotion ~ Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

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