Result
05/10/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- : Bundesliga - Round 6
- Referee: Hartmann R. (Ger)
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Chances of winning
Hamburger SV
39.6% | Draw
28.1% | Mainz
32.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hamburger SV's performance.Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mainz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-6.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hamburger SV that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+8.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mainz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Hamburger SV - Mainz Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.79 ↓
(2.81) |
4.08 ↑
(3.7) |
3.75 ↑
(2.37) |
-13%
(4.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Hamburger SV - Mainz?
Users Predictions:
26 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 9 - 34.6%). Mainz will win (votes: 10 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 26.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 19.8% – 57.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0.
- Recent form of Hamburg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Mainz has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Mainz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Hamburg: Omari W.
(Injury)
Vieira F.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Mainz: Caci A.
(Muscle Injury)
Dal M.
(Knee Injury)
Zentner R.
(Red Card)
- There are questionable in Mainz: Leitsch M.
(Illness)
- In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:18. (average 1.2:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 0.9:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Hamburger SV won against Mainz?
Hamburger SV has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Hamburger SV?
Mainz has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Hamburger SV - Mainz were as follows:
Latest results of Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 25:3 | 22 | 18 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8:8 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Stuttgart | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8:6 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:8 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | FC Koln | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:9 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17:16 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | St. Pauli | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:9 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9:14 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | Union Berlin | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:13 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11:13 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Wolfsburg | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2:8 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Mainz | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5:6 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Heidenheim | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4:11 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | B. Monchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5:12 | -7 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga
Which TV channels are streaming of Hamburger SV - Mainz?
It is being streamed on various channels, including:
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 Africa | StarTimes App, Startimes World Football |
 Albania | Tring Sport 2 |
 Argentina | Disney+, ESPN 3 |
 Australia | Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect |
 Austria | DAZN, Sky Go Austria |
 Belgium | Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2 |
 Brazil | Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping |
 Bulgaria | Nova Sport, Play Diema Xtra |
 Canada | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 3, Oneplay |
 Denmark | TV3 MAX, Viaplay |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay |
 France | beIN Sports MAX 6 |
 Georgia | Setanta Sports 2 |
 Germany | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW |
 Greece | Nova Sports 4 |
 Hong-kong | beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 India | Vision+ |
 Indonesia | K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Italy | NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 259, Sky Sport MIX |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Laos | beIN Connect |
 Malaysia | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Malta | GO TV, TSN Malta 6 |
 Mexico | Sky Sport |
 Mongolia | Premier Sports 4 |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 North-central-america | Sky Sports Norte |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Norway | Viaplay, V Sport 1 |
 Pakistan | Tapmad |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Philippines | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 2 |
 Portugal | DAZN 3, DAZN / App |
 Romania | Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Saudi-arabia | Shahid |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 2 |
 Singapore | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Slovakia | Sport TV2, Voyo |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Spain | DAZN Espana |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Thailand | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Sport 2 |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1 |
 Ukraine | Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+ |
 United-kingdom | Amazon Prime Video |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 Vietnam | TV 360 |
 World | Onefootball |
