Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer MLS Next Pro
Soccer MLS Next Pro Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance
Result
1:2
02/05/2025 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : MLS Next Pro
Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.921.65
Ball Possession
55%45%
Total shots
1115
Shots on target
44
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
116
Passes
85% (422/499)85% (352/415)
Yellow Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
0.921.65
xG on target (xGOT)
0.901.95
Total shots
1115
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
44
Blocked Shots
37
Shots inside the Box
912
Shots outside the Box
23
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
116
Touches in opposition box
2647
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
25
Free Kicks
611
Passes
85% (422/499)85% (352/415)
Long passes
51% (31/61)47% (18/38)
Passes in final third
70% (78/111)76% (115/152)
Crosses
26% (9/34)24% (4/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.171.48
Throw-ins
2715
Fouls
116
Tackles
63% (5/8)83% (10/12)
Duels won
2430
Clearances
1627
Interceptions
56
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
23
xGOT faced
1.950.90
Goals prevented
-0.05-0.10

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 12', Miller H. 🟨,
  • 27', 1 - 0, Miller H. ⚽, Sullivan N. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
  • 46', 1 - 1, Tsukanome Y. ⚽,
  • 46', Katsaros E. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
  • 46', Pedder R. ↓, Carli E. ↑,
  • 58', 1 - 2, Tsukanome Y. ⚽,
  • 63', Dalgado R. ↓, Middleby M. ↑,
  • 65', Tsukanome Y. ↓, Khoury J. ↑,
  • 75', Vanney D. ↓, Karani S. ↑,
  • 75', Muller L. ↓, El-Jindaoui N. ↑,
  • 86', Gomez S. ↓, Robles D. ↑,
  • 88', Kocevski J. ↓, Garcia V. ↑,

Chances of winning


Ventura County
35.7%		Draw
22%		Tacoma Defiance
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
43.3% 22.5% 34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3% 24% 32%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Ventura County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ventura County's form might have worsened.
  • Tacoma Defiance has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tacoma Defiance's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ventura County than the current prediction. (+10.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ventura County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tacoma Defiance than the current prediction. (-10.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tacoma Defiance, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.6 ↑
    (2.13)    		 4.22 ↑
    (4.1)    		 2.19 ↓
    (2.69)    		 8%
    (8.5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
    •
    Preview Facts
    • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
    • Recent performances by Ventura County have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Tacoma is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ventura County won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:13. (average 2.6:2.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Ventura County won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:6. (average 3.7:2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance were as follows:
    07.03.2025 Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance 3:2
    20.10.2024 Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County 4:0
    18.08.2024 Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County 3:2
    31.05.2024 Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance 3:2
    31.03.2024 Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance 5:2
    Latest results of Ventura County
    27.04.2025 Vancouver Whitecaps 2 - Ventura County 2:3
    23.04.2025 Ventura County - Portland Timbers 2 2:3 ✺
    13.04.2025 Ventura County - St. Louis City 2 3:1
    06.04.2025 Real Monarchs - Ventura County 1:2
    02.04.2025 Ventura County - El Paso Locomotive 0:3
    Latest results of Tacoma Defiance
    26.04.2025 Tacoma Defiance - St. Louis City 2 4:1
    23.04.2025 Sporting Kansas City II - Tacoma Defiance 1:4
    15.04.2025 Tacoma Defiance - Oakland Roots 2:1 ✺
    10.04.2025 Los Angeles II - Tacoma Defiance 3:2
    06.04.2025 Tacoma Defiance - Vancouver Whitecaps 2 5:3
    MLS Next Pro Table
    2025

    Northeast Division
    PlWWLLPts
    1New York Red Bulls 212811228:2027
    2New York City II15522628:3121
    3New England Revolution II11430317:1419
    4Toronto FC II13503514:1718
    5Philadelphia Union II9422119:718
    6Chicago Fire II11501422:2117
    7Columbus Crew 211212611:2110
    8Cincinnati 21113079:189


    Southeast Division
    PlWWLLPts
    1Chattanooga13821222:1529
    2Huntsville12531324:1322
    3Orlando City B13610619:2420
    4Carolina Core11323317:1516
    5Crown Legacy11322417:1815
    6Inter Miami II14402822:3114
    7Atlanta United 213224519:2314


    Pacific Division
    PlWWLLPts
    1Ventura County13810426:2126
    2Town FC10511322:1018
    3Vancouver Whitecaps 213430627:2418
    4Tacoma Defiance12510627:2617
    5Real Monarchs10413220:1617
    6Los Angeles FC II12411619:2415
    7Portland Timbers 213411721:3015


    Frontier Division
    PlWWLLPts
    1St. Louis City 212710422:1823
    2Colorado Rapids 213702422:1923
    3North Texas12611420:2321
    4Houston Dynamo 213530520:1921
    5Minnesota 210502320:1317
    6Austin FC II1122349:1313
    7Sporting Kansas City II1201389:285


    Eastern Conference
    PlWWLLPts
    1Chattanooga13821222:1529
    2New York Red Bulls 212811228:2027
    3Huntsville12531324:1322
    4New York City II15522628:3121
    5Orlando City B13610619:2420
    6New England Revolution II11430317:1419
    7Toronto FC II13503514:1718
    8Philadelphia Union II9422119:718
    9Chicago Fire II11501422:2117
    10Carolina Core11323317:1516
    11Crown Legacy11322417:1815
    12Inter Miami II14402822:3114
    13Atlanta United 213224519:2314
    14Columbus Crew 211212611:2110
    15Cincinnati 21113079:189


    Western Conference
    PlWWLLPts
    1Ventura County13810426:2126
    2St. Louis City 212710422:1823
    3Colorado Rapids 213702422:1923
    4North Texas12611420:2321
    5Houston Dynamo 213530520:1921
    6Town FC10511322:1018
    7Vancouver Whitecaps 213430627:2418
    8Minnesota 210502320:1317
    9Tacoma Defiance12510627:2617
    10Real Monarchs10413220:1617
    11Los Angeles FC II12411619:2415
    12Portland Timbers 213411721:3015
    13Austin FC II1122349:1313
    14Sporting Kansas City II1201389:285

          Promotion ~ MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)

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