Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

30/08/2025 at 21:40 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY).

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Match Stats


Aces
22	10
Double Faults
12	4
1st Serve Percentage
61%	61%
1st Serve Points Won
83% (91/110)	75% (73/97)
2nd Serve Points Won
52% (36/69)	56% (35/63)
Break Points Saved
100% (6/6)	63% (5/8)
Average 1st Serve Speed
192 km/h	174 km/h
Average 2nd Serve Speed
163 km/h	140 km/h
1st Return Points Won
25% (24/97)	17% (19/110)
2nd Return Points Won
44% (28/63)	48% (33/69)
Break Points Converted
38% (3/8)	0% (0/6)
Winners
70	39
Unforced Errors
55	32
Net Points Won
71% (29/41)	47% (27/58)
Service Points Won
71% (127/179)	68% (108/160)
Return Points Won
33% (52/160)	29% (52/179)
Total Points Won
53% (179/339)	47% (160/339)
Last 10 Balls
6	4
Match Points Saved
0	2
Service Games Won
100% (27/27)	88% (22/25)
Return Games Won
12% (3/25)	0% (0/27)
Total Games Won
58% (30/52)	42% (22/52)
Distance Covered (metres)
3001	3119

Chances of winning

Alexander Bublik
51.1%

Tommy Paul
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

58%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

57.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alexander Bublik's performance.

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tommy Paul might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alexander Bublik that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tommy Paul could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.32)		1.97 ↑ (1.68)	4.5% (2.6%)

What is the prediction for Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul?

Users Predictions: 53 users predict this event. Bublik will win (votes: 40 - 75.5%). Paul will win (votes: 13 - 24.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bublik: 63.9% – 87.1%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Alexander Bublik will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:3.

Preview Facts

Bublik is ranked ATP: 24. Paul is ranked ATP: 14.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bublik won 1.
Bublik is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Paul has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.
We predict that Bublik will win today's game, with odds of 1.75.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Bublik won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 0.8:1.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Alexander Bublik won against Tommy Paul?

Alexander Bublik has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Tommy Paul won against Alexander Bublik?

Tommy Paul has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul were as follows:

21.03.2025 Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul 1:2

05.07.2024 Tommy Paul - Alexander Bublik 3:0

Latest results of Alexander Bublik

28.08.2025 Alexander Bublik - Tristan Schoolkate 3:0 ✺

26.08.2025 Alexander Bublik - Marin Cilic 3:0 ✺

26.07.2025 Alexander Bublik - Arthur Cazaux 2:0 ✺

25.07.2025 Alexander Bublik - Botic Van De Zandschulp 2:0 ✺

24.07.2025 Alexander Bublik - Alexander Shevchenko 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Tommy Paul

28.08.2025 Nuno Borges - Tommy Paul 2:3 ✺

26.08.2025 Elmer Moller - Tommy Paul 0:3 ✺

11.08.2025 Adrian Mannarino - Tommy Paul 2:1 ✺

09.08.2025 Pedro Martinez Portero - Tommy Paul 0:2 ✺

03.07.2025 Sebastian Ofner - Tommy Paul 3:1 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Kopriva V.	3 : 0
2	Popyrin A.	Ruusuvuori E.	3 : 0
3	Royer V. (WC)	Bu Y.	3 : 0
4	Fucsovics M.	Shapovalov D. (27)	0 : 3
5	Bublik A. (23)	Cilic M.	3 : 0
6	Sonego L.	Schoolkate T. (WC)	2 : 3
7	Borges N.	Holt B.	3 : 0
8	Moller E.	Paul T. (14)	0 : 3
9	Musetti L. (10)	Mpetshi Perricard G.	3 : 1
10	Halys Q.	Goffin D.	1 : 3
11	Brooksby J.	Vukic A.	3 : 2
12	Passaro F. (Q)	Cobolli F. (24)	2 : 3
13	Diallo G. (31)	Dzumhur D.	3 : 1
14	Munar J.	Faria J. (LL)	3 : 1
15	Bergs Z.	Tseng C. H.	3 : 0
16	Gomez F. A. (Q)	Draper J. (5)	1 : 3
17	Zverev A. (3)	Tabilo A.	3 : 0
18	Bautista-Agut R.	Fearnley J.	1 : 3
19	Monfils G.	Safiullin R.	2 : 3
20	Harris B. (LL)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	0 : 3
21	Humbert U. (22)	Walton A.	1 : 3
22	Kovacevic A.	Wong C. (Q)	0 : 3
23	Duckworth J. (LL)	Boyer T. (WC)	0 : 3
24	Prizmic D. (Q)	Rublev A. (15)	0 : 3
25	Khachanov K. (9)	Basavareddy N. (WC)	3 : 1
26	Dellien H.	Majchrzak K.	1 : 3
27	Riedi L. (Q)	Martinez P.	3 : 0
28	Arnaldi M.	Cerundolo F. (19)	2 : 3
29	Tsitsipas S. (26)	Muller A.	3 : 1
30	Altmaier D.	Medjedovic H.	3 : 2
31	Gaston H.	Mochizuki S. (Q)	0 : 3
32	O'Connell C.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
33	Djokovic N. (7)	Tien L.	3 : 0
34	Svajda Z. (Q)	Piros Z. (Q)	3 : 0
35	Norrie C.	Korda S. (RET.)	2 : 0
36	Comesana F.	Michelsen A. (28)	3 : 1
37	Tiafoe F. (17)	Nishioka Y.	3 : 0
38	Damm M. (Q)	Blanch Dar. (WC)	3 : 0
39	Struff J-L. (Q)	McDonald M.	3 : 1
40	Van De Zandschulp B.	Rune H. (11)	0 : 3
41	Mensik J. (16)	Jarry N.	3 : 0
42	Blanchet U. (Q)	Marozsan F.	3 : 1
43	Fonseca J.	Kecmanovic M.	3 : 0
44	Nardi L.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
45	Nakashima B. (30)	De Jong J. (Q)	3 : 2
46	Kym J. (Q)	Quinn E.	3 : 1
47	Baez S.	Harris L. (Q)	0 : 3
48	Nava E. (WC)	Fritz T. (4)	0 : 3
49	Shelton B. (6)	Buse I. (Q)	3 : 0
50	Carreno-Busta P.	Llamas Ruiz P. (Q)	3 : 0
51	Thompson J.	Moutet C.	3 : 1
52	Mannarino A.	Griekspoor T. (29)	3 : 0
53	Lehecka J. (20)	Coric B.	3 : 1
54	Ugo Carabelli C.	Etcheverry T. M.	0 : 3
55	Galan D. E. (Alt)	Collignon R.	0 : 3
56	Ofner S.	Ruud C. (12)	0 : 3
57	Medvedev D. (13)	Bonzi B.	2 : 3
58	Navone M.	Giron M.	2 : 3
59	Carballes Baena R.	Rinderknech A.	1 : 3
60	Shevchenko A.	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	0 : 3
61	Darderi L. (32)	Hijikata R.	3 : 0
62	Dostanic S. (WC)	Spizzirri E. (WC)	0 : 3
63	Bellucci M.	Shang J. (RET.)	2 : 1
64	Opelka R.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/32-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Popyrin A.	3 : 0
2	Royer V.	Shapovalov D. (27)	1 : 3
3	Bublik A. (23)	Schoolkate T.	3 : 0
4	Borges N.	Paul T. (14)	2 : 3
5	Musetti L. (10)	Goffin D.	3 : 0
6	Brooksby J.	Cobolli F. (24)	2 : 3
7	Diallo G. (31)	Munar J.	0 : 3
8	Bergs Z. (WO.)	Draper J. (5)
9	Zverev A. (3)	Fearnley J.	3 : 0
10	Safiullin R.	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	0 : 3
11	Walton A.	Wong C.	1 : 3
12	Boyer T.	Rublev A. (15)	1 : 3
13	Khachanov K. (9)	Majchrzak K.	2 : 3
14	Riedi L.	Cerundolo F. (19)	3 : 2
15	Tsitsipas S. (26)	Altmaier D.	2 : 3
16	Mochizuki S.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
17	Djokovic N. (7)	Svajda Z.	3 : 1
18	Norrie C.	Comesana F.	3 : 1
19	Tiafoe F. (17)	Damm M.	3 : 1
20	Struff J-L.	Rune H. (11)	3 : 2
21	Mensik J. (16)	Blanchet U.	2 : 3
22	Fonseca J.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
23	Nakashima B. (30)	Kym J.	2 : 3
24	Harris L.	Fritz T. (4)	1 : 3
25	Shelton B. (6)	Carreno-Busta P.	3 : 0
26	Thompson J.	Mannarino A.	1 : 3
27	Lehecka J. (20)	Etcheverry T. M.	3 : 1
28	Collignon R.	Ruud C. (12)	3 : 2
29	Bonzi B.	Giron M.	3 : 2
30	Rinderknech A.	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	3 : 2
31	Darderi L. (32)	Spizzirri E.	3 : 1
32	Bellucci M.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/16-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Shapovalov D. (27)	3 : 1
2	Bublik A. (23)	Paul T. (14)	3 : 2
3	Musetti L. (10)	Cobolli F. (RET.) (24)	2 : 0
4	Munar J.	Bergs Z.	3 : 0
5	Zverev A. (3)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	1 : 3
6	Wong C.	Rublev A. (15)	2 : 3
7	Majchrzak K. (RET.)	Riedi L.	0 : 0
8	Altmaier D. (RET.)	De Minaur A. (8)	1 : 2
9	Djokovic N. (7)	Norrie C.	3 : 1
10	Tiafoe F. (17)	Struff J-L.	0 : 3
11	Blanchet U.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
12	Kym J.	Fritz T. (4)	1 : 3
13	Shelton B. (RET.) (6)	Mannarino A.	2 : 2
14	Lehecka J. (20)	Collignon R.	3 : 0
15	Bonzi B.	Rinderknech A.	1 : 3
16	Darderi L. (32)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/8-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Bublik A. (23)	3 : 0
2	Musetti L. (10)	Munar J.	3 : 0
3	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	Rublev A. (15)	3 : 0
4	Riedi L.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
5	Djokovic N. (7)	Struff J-L.	3 : 0
6	Machac T. (21)	Fritz T. (4)	0 : 3
7	Mannarino A.	Lehecka J. (20)	1 : 3
8	Rinderknech A.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Quarter-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Musetti L. (10)	3 : 0
2	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	De Minaur A. (8)	3 : 1
3	Djokovic N. (7)	Fritz T. (4)	3 : 1
4	Lehecka J. (20)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Semi-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	3 : 1
2	Djokovic N. (7)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Final

1

Sinner J. (1)

Alcaraz C. (2)

1 : 3

Which TV channels are streaming of Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


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Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max