Result
1:1
16/08/2025 at 23:10 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- : Liga MX - Apertura - Round 5
- Referee: Caceres V. (Mex)
Advertisement
Watch and bet Toluca - UNAM live
-
Sign in or
Register
(it's free) to watch and bet Live Stream*
- To place a bet while streaming, go to
Live In-Play
- Prior to joining Bet365.com and funding your account in order to view this event,
or any other particular event via Bet365.com live stream,
you are strongly advised to check with Bet365.com if,
depending on your place of residence, it is possible to view this live stream.
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.72 | 0.78 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 71% | 29% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (499/558) | 72% (168/234) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.72 | 0.78 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.61 | 1.23 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (499/558) | 72% (168/234) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 69% (47/68) | 33% (16/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 79% (135/170) | 58% (38/65) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 22% (6/27) | 43% (3/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.74 | 0.41 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (12/17) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 35 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.23 | 0.61 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.23 | -0.39 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 13', 0 - 1, Ruvalcaba J. ⚽, Duarte R. (A),
- 23', Ruvalcaba J. 🟨,
- 24', Ruiz M. 🟨,
- 24', Martinez G. 🟨,
- 28', Trigos S. 🟨,
- 35', Gallardo J. 🟨,
- 45', Caicedo J. ↓, Monroy P. ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Castro N. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 67', 1 - 1, Angulo J. ⚽, Paulinho (A),
- 68', Castro H. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
- 72', Ruvalcaba J. ↓, Quispe Cordova P. A. ↑,
- 79', Duarte R. 🟨,
- 82', Angulo J. ↓, Virgen O. ↑,
- 89', Nathan Silva 🟨,
- 90+1', Carrasquilla A. ↓, Rivas U. ↑,
- 90+1', Ruiz M. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
Chances of winning
Toluca
55.1% | Draw
25.2% | UNAM
19.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)UNAM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (+0.4%)
Toluca - UNAM Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.7 ↓
(1.71) |
3.72 ↑
(3.72) |
4.71 ↑
(4.57) |
7%
(7.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Toluca - UNAM?
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Toluca will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 1.
- Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
- Toluca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Toluca has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Toluca: Helinho
(Injury)
Luan
(Injury)
- There will not play in UNAM: Lopez S.
(Finger Injury)
- There are questionable in UNAM: Lara P.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:27. (average 1.2:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 1.6:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against UNAM?
Toluca has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has UNAM won against Toluca?
UNAM has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - UNAM were as follows:
29.01.2025
UNAM
-
Toluca
1:1
05.10.2024
Toluca
-
UNAM
1:1
17.03.2024
Toluca
-
UNAM
3:0
18.08.2023
UNAM
-
Toluca
1:1
16.04.2023
UNAM
-
Toluca
3:1
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Monterrey | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17:9 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Club America | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15:6 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15:8 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Tigres UANL | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16:8 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | Toluca | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:10 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Pachuca | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11:7 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13:9 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Juarez | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:7 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Club Leon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8:9 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7:8 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Santos Laguna | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9:11 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Mazatlan FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Atl. San Luis | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 | Atlas | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 12:19 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | Necaxa | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6:13 | -7 | 5 |
| 16 | Guadalajara Chivas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9:12 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Queretaro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Puebla | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6:18 | -12 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
Which TV channels are streaming of Toluca - UNAM?
It is being streamed on various channels, including:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping |
 Mexico | Caliente TV, Canal 5, Fox Sports, Tubi TV, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | CBS Sports Network, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
