Toluca vs Puebla: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Mexican Liga MX Toluca - Puebla
Result
3:1
13/09/2025 at 23:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Liga MX - Apertura - Round 8
  • Referee: Hernandez Andrade K. (Mex)
Toluca - Puebla - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.611.35
Ball Possession
62%38%
Total shots
278
Shots on target
52
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
55
Passes
91% (476/522)82% (258/313)
Yellow Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.611.35
xG on target (xGOT)
0.731.07
Total shots
278
Shots on target
52
Shots off target
135
Blocked Shots
91
Shots inside the Box
115
Shots outside the Box
163
Hit the Woodwork
11
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
55
Touches in opposition box
239
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
1412
Passes
91% (476/522)82% (258/313)
Long passes
65% (31/48)54% (27/50)
Passes in final third
83% (125/151)70% (46/66)
Crosses
25% (4/16)9% (1/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.980.19
Throw-ins
179
Fouls
1314
Tackles
80% (12/15)65% (13/20)
Duels won
4443
Clearances
1422
Interceptions
75
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
12
xGOT faced
1.070.73
Goals prevented
0.07-2.27

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 31', 1 - 0, Pereira F. , Morales R. (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 55', Rivas J. , Moreno I. ,
  • 55', Gomez E. , Castillo R. ,
  • 63', Navarro E. 🟨,
  • 69', Castro N. , Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ,
  • 71', Organista A. , Gonzalez O. ,
  • 71', Gamarra P. , Rey L. ,
  • 76', Navarro E. , Araos A. ,
  • 80', 2 - 0, Gallardo J. , Angulo J. (A),
  • 80', Angulo J. , Herrera H. ,
  • 80', Morales R. , Virgen O. ,
  • 85', 2 - 1, Monarrez F. (Pen),
  • 89', 3 - 1, Virgen O. , Vega A. (A),
  • 90+1', Barbosa D. , Simon S. ,
  • 90+1', Vega A. , Estrada J. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Toluca
70.4%
Draw
18.1%
Puebla
11.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
72% 16.7% 11.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)
  • Puebla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
  • Toluca - Puebla Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.34
    (1.29)
    5.18
    (5.54)
    8.16
    (8.23)
    6.5%
    (8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
  • What is the prediction for Toluca - Puebla?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 64.6%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 18).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.
    • Recent performances by Toluca have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Puebla is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • In this match, Toluca is the undisputed favorite.
    • There will not play in Toluca: Helinho (Injury) Luan (Injury)
    • There will not play in Puebla: Cavallini L. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Puebla: Guerra E. (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 31:26. (average 1.6:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:13. (average 1.9:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Puebla were as follows:
    14.03.2025 Puebla - Toluca 0:3
    22.10.2024 Toluca - Puebla 5:0
    26.01.2024 Puebla - Toluca 1:1
    31.10.2023 Toluca - Puebla 0:1
    07.04.2023 Puebla - Toluca 1:2
    Latest results of Toluca
    23.08.2025 Cruz Azul - Toluca 1:0
    20.08.2025 Toluca - Orlando City 0:1
    16.08.2025 Toluca - UNAM 1:1
    11.08.2025 Juárez - Toluca 0:2
    Latest results of Puebla
    29.08.2025 Puebla - Monterrey 2:4
    24.08.2025 UNAM - Puebla 0:0
    20.08.2025 Seattle Sounders - Puebla 1:0
    08.08.2025 Tigres UANL - Puebla 7:0
    Mexican Liga MX Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Cruz Azul1073021:12924
    2Toluca1071228:131522
    3Monterrey1071222:17522
    4Club America1063119:10921
    5Tigres UANL1054119:91019
    6Club Tijuana1044219:11816
    7Juarez1043313:12115
    8Pachuca1042413:12114
    9UNAM Pumas1034313:13013
    10Club Leon1033410:16-612
    11Guadalajara Chivas1032514:17-311
    12Atl. San Luis1031615:16-110
    13Santos Laguna1031613:17-410
    14Necaxa102359:17-89
    15Mazatlan FC1015412:17-58
    16Queretaro1022611:18-78
    17Atlas1014515:24-97
    18Puebla101279:24-155

          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )

    Which TV channels are streaming of Toluca - Puebla?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    mexicoMexicoCaliente TV, Tubi TV
    south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
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