Toluca vs Orlando City: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer CONCACAF League Cup Toluca - Orlando City
Result
0:1 penalties
20/08/2025 at 20:50 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Leagues Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
Toluca - Orlando City - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.760.24
Ball Possession
51%49%
Total shots
154
Shots on target
11
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
105
Passes
86% (357/415)82% (334/407)
Yellow Cards
13
Expected Goals (xG)
0.760.24
xG on target (xGOT)
0.120.08
Total shots
154
Shots on target
11
Shots off target
62
Blocked Shots
81
Shots inside the Box
72
Shots outside the Box
82
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
105
Touches in opposition box
2512
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
14
Free Kicks
917
Passes
86% (357/415)82% (334/407)
Long passes
57% (27/47)48% (22/46)
Passes in final third
78% (110/141)60% (56/93)
Crosses
23% (5/22)9% (1/11)
Expected assists (xA)
1.110.23
Throw-ins
147
Fouls
179
Tackles
73% (8/11)67% (14/21)
Duels won
3352
Clearances
1623
Interceptions
1013
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
11
xGOT faced
0.080.12
Goals prevented
0.080.12

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 45+2', Pereira F. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 59', Castro H. , Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ,
  • 63', Brekalo D. 🟨,
  • 64', Schlegel R. 🟨,
  • 67', Muriel L. , Enrique R. ,
  • 76', Atuesta E. 🟨,
  • 76', Angulo J. , Herrera H. ,
  • 81', Pasalic M. , Taifi Z. ,
  • 85', Brekalo D. , Smith K. ,
  • 85', Atuesta E. , Gerbet J. ,
  • 86', Ruiz M. , Castro N. ,
  • 86', Paulinho , Morales R. ,
  • Penalties (5 - 6)
  • 1, Vega A. (Pen),
  • 1, Ojeda M. (Pen),
  • 2, Pereira F. (Pen),
  • 2, Jansson R. (Pen),
  • 3, Morales R. (Pen),
  • 3, Freeman A. (Pen),
  • 4, Gallardo J. (Pen),
  • 4, Gerbet J. (Pen),
  • 5, Romero F. (Pen),
  • 5, Smith K. (Pen),
  • 6, Castro N. (Pen),
  • 6, Enrique R. (Pen),
  • 7, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. (Pen),
  • 7, Gallese P. (Pen),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Toluca
39.7%
Draw
25.4%
Orlando City
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
48.9% 26.6% 24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9% 28.2% 23.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toluca's form might have worsened.
  • Orlando City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orlando City's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+12.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toluca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orlando City than the current prediction. (-11.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orlando City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Toluca - Orlando City Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.35
    (1.92)
    3.7
    (3.52)
    2.71
    (3.82)
    6.5%
    (6.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
  • What is the prediction for Toluca - Orlando City?
  • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Orlando City will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 9.6%70.4%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Orlando City (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Neutral location - Dignity Health Sports Park.
    • At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
    • Toluca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • Recently, the teams have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Toluca
    16.08.2025 Toluca - UNAM 1:1
    11.08.2025 Juárez - Toluca 0:2
    05.08.2025 Toluca - New York City 2:1
    01.08.2025 Toluca - CF Montréal 2:1
    29.07.2025 Toluca - Columbus Crew 2:2
    Latest results of Orlando City
    10.08.2025 Orlando City - Inter Miami 4:1
    06.08.2025 Orlando City - Necaxa 5:1
    02.08.2025 Orlando City - Atlas 3:1
    30.07.2025 UNAM - Orlando City 2:1
    Draw
    Play Offs

    Quarter-finals
    1Los Angeles GalaxyPachuca2 : 1
    2Seattle SoundersPuebla1 : 0
    3Inter MiamiTigres UANL2 : 1
    4TolucaOrlando City0 : 1

    Semi-finals
    1Los Angeles GalaxySeattle Sounders0 : 2
    2Inter MiamiOrlando City3 : 1

    Final
    1Seattle SoundersInter Miami3 : 0

    3rd place
    2Los Angeles GalaxyOrlando City2 : 1
    Which TV channels are streaming of Toluca - Orlando City?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video
    italyItalyAmazon Prime Video
    mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, TUDN
    south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
    usaUsaMLS Season Pass, TUDN
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