Toluca vs Monterrey: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Mexican Liga MX Toluca - Monterrey
Result
6:2
24/09/2025 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Liga MX - Apertura - Round 10
Toluca - Monterrey - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.402.55
Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
2416
Shots on target
137
Big Chances
84
Corner Kicks
62
Passes
86% (390/452)90% (455/508)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
3.402.55
xG on target (xGOT)
3.252.91
Total shots
2416
Shots on target
137
Shots off target
78
Blocked Shots
41
Shots inside the Box
1612
Shots outside the Box
84
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
84
Corner Kicks
62
Touches in opposition box
2822
Accurate through passes
20
Offsides
23
Free Kicks
411
Passes
86% (390/452)90% (455/508)
Long passes
52% (27/52)73% (45/62)
Passes in final third
77% (63/82)81% (150/186)
Crosses
38% (5/13)33% (8/24)
Expected assists (xA)
1.591.69
Throw-ins
1017
Fouls
114
Tackles
47% (9/19)80% (8/10)
Duels won
3033
Clearances
1711
Interceptions
45
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
56
xGOT faced
2.913.25
Goals prevented
0.91-2.75

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (4 - 2)
  • 10', 0 - 1, Berterame G. ,
  • 19', Ramos S. (Pen),
  • 23', 1 - 1, Angulo J. , Simon S. (A),
  • 26', 2 - 1, Paulinho , Vega A. (A),
  • 34', 3 - 1, Castro N. , Romero F. (A),
  • 39', 3 - 2, Torres O. , Aguirre E. (A),
  • 40', 4 - 2, Paulinho , Ruiz M. (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 46', Aguirre E. , Chavez R. ,
  • 46', Medina S. , Martial A. ,
  • 46', Corona J. , Guzman V. ,
  • 52', 5 - 2, Paulinho ,
  • 62', 6 - 2, Castro N. ,
  • 64', Simon S. , Barbosa D. ,
  • 64', Angulo J. , Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ,
  • 74', Canales S. , Ocampos L. ,
  • 76', Ruiz M. , Morales R. ,
  • 76', Paulinho , Herrera H. ,
  • 85', Romero F. , Arce F. ,
  • 85', Berterame G. , de la Rosa R. ,
  • 87', Gallardo J. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Ramos S. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Toluca
58.8%
Draw
22%
Monterrey
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
41.5% 25.3% 33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44% 26.8% 31.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.
  • Monterrey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Monterrey might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-14.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toluca that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterrey than the current prediction. (+12.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Monterrey could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Toluca - Monterrey Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.65
    (2.2)
    4.29
    (3.6)
    4.86
    (2.75)
    4.4%
    (9.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
  • What is the prediction for Toluca - Monterrey?
  • Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Monterrey will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 46.1%91.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2.
    • Toluca has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Monterrey is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • In this match, Toluca is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Toluca: Bruno Mendez (Red Card) Luan (Injury)
    • There will not play in Monterrey: Bustos C. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Toluca: Helinho (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Monterrey: Berterame G. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:30. (average 1.4:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:10. (average 1.8:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Monterrey were as follows:
    10.05.2025 Toluca - Monterrey 2:1
    07.05.2025 Monterrey - Toluca 3:2
    18.01.2025 Toluca - Monterrey 1:1
    31.08.2024 Monterrey - Toluca 1:2
    18.02.2024 Monterrey - Toluca 0:0
    Latest results of Toluca
    13.09.2025 Toluca - Puebla 3:1
    23.08.2025 Cruz Azul - Toluca 1:0
    20.08.2025 Toluca - Orlando City 0:1
    Latest results of Monterrey
    20.09.2025 Monterrey - Club América 2:2
    14.09.2025 Querétaro - Monterrey 0:1
    29.08.2025 Puebla - Monterrey 2:4
    23.08.2025 Monterrey - Necaxa 3:0
    17.08.2025 Monterrey - Mazatlan 3:2
    Mexican Liga MX Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Cruz Azul1073021:12924
    2Toluca1071228:131522
    3Monterrey1071222:17522
    4Club America1063119:10921
    5Tigres UANL1054119:91019
    6Club Tijuana1044219:11816
    7Juarez1043313:12115
    8Pachuca1042413:12114
    9UNAM Pumas1034313:13013
    10Club Leon1033410:16-612
    11Guadalajara Chivas1032514:17-311
    12Atl. San Luis1031615:16-110
    13Santos Laguna1031613:17-410
    14Necaxa102359:17-89
    15Mazatlan FC1015412:17-58
    16Queretaro1022611:18-78
    17Atlas1014515:24-97
    18Puebla101279:24-155

          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )

    Which TV channels are streaming of Toluca - Monterrey?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Canal 5, Tubi TV, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
    south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
    usaUsaTUDN App, TUDN
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