Toluca vs CF Montréal: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer CONCACAF League Cup Toluca - CF Montréal
Result
2:1
01/08/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Leagues Cup - Round 2
Toluca - CF Montréal - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.100.54
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
178
Shots on target
92
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
27
Passes
76% (336/443)71% (287/407)
Yellow Cards
02
Expected Goals (xG)
1.100.54
xG on target (xGOT)
2.860.90
Total shots
178
Shots on target
92
Shots off target
44
Blocked Shots
42
Shots inside the Box
106
Shots outside the Box
72
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
27
Touches in opposition box
1524
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
1510
Passes
76% (336/443)71% (287/407)
Long passes
45% (42/94)40% (28/70)
Passes in final third
58% (93/160)60% (67/112)
Crosses
10% (1/10)47% (8/17)
Expected assists (xA)
0.801.17
Throw-ins
2516
Fouls
1015
Tackles
53% (10/19)69% (11/16)
Duels won
5151
Clearances
2331
Interceptions
137
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
17
xGOT faced
0.902.86
Goals prevented
-0.100.86

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 1)
  • 20', 0 - 1, Morales E. , Synchuk G. (A),
  • 23', 1 - 1, Angulo J. , Castro H. (A),
  • 26', 2 - 1, Paulinho ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 55', Waterman J. 🟨,
  • 56', Guboglo Y. , Petrasso L. ,
  • 57', Loturi V. , Sealy D. ,
  • 71', Castro H. , Castro N. ,
  • 72', Angulo J. , Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ,
  • 77', Waterman J. , Craig B. ,
  • 77', Synchuk G. , Escobar O. ,
  • 83', Vega A. , Morales R. ,
  • 84', Paulinho , Bruno Mendez ,
  • 84', Bugaj D. , Graham-Roache O. ,
  • 90+6', Graham-Roache O. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Toluca
61.5%
Draw
20.8%
CF Montréal
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
46.6% 25.9% 27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3% 25% 26.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.
  • CF Montréal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and CF Montréal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-13.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toluca that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for CF Montréal than the current prediction. (+8.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that CF Montréal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Toluca - CF Montréal Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.52
    (2.01)
    4.48
    (3.61)
    5.28
    (3.4)
    7.2%
    (6.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
  • What is the prediction for Toluca - CF Montréal?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Toluca will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 79.37%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Toluca is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Montreal's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.
    • In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
    Latest results of Toluca
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    Latest results of CF Montréal
    CONCACAF League Cup Table
    2025

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    MLS
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Seattle Sounders220009:16
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    4Los Angeles Galaxy210106:34
    5Minnesota United210107:44
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    10Real Salt Lake201104:43
    11Colorado Rapids210013:33
    12Los Angeles FC201102:23
    13New York City210012:33
    14CF Montreal201012:32
    15Charlotte200113:61
    16San Diego FC200023:50
    17Atlanta Utd200023:60
    18Houston Dynamo200021:60

          Promotion ~ Leagues Cup (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)

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