Toluca vs Tigres UANL: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Mexican Liga MX Toluca - Tigres UANL
Result
3:4
26/07/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Liga MX - Apertura - Round 3
  • Referee: Ortiz M. (Mex)
Toluca - Tigres UANL - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.451.43
Ball Possession
54%46%
Total shots
1711
Shots on target
65
Big Chances
15
Corner Kicks
70
Passes
84% (366/438)79% (305/386)
Yellow Cards
62
Expected Goals (xG)
1.451.43
xG on target (xGOT)
1.762.94
Total shots
1711
Shots on target
65
Shots off target
63
Blocked Shots
53
Shots inside the Box
1110
Shots outside the Box
61
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
15
Corner Kicks
70
Touches in opposition box
2721
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
31
Free Kicks
714
Passes
84% (366/438)79% (305/386)
Long passes
51% (30/59)43% (26/61)
Passes in final third
69% (78/113)49% (38/78)
Crosses
25% (6/24)25% (1/4)
Expected assists (xA)
1.610.76
Throw-ins
1917
Fouls
147
Tackles
69% (11/16)77% (10/13)
Duels won
3650
Clearances
2428
Interceptions
818
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
2.941.76
Goals prevented
-0.06-1.24

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 3)
  • 11', 1 - 0, Paulinho , Helinho (A),
  • 21', 1 - 1, Pereira F. (Own goal),
  • 30', Brunetta J. 🟨,
  • 35', 1 - 2, Herrera O. ,
  • 40', del Villar E. 🟨,
  • 45+1', 1 - 3, Ibanez N. , Aquino J. (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 46', Isais M. , Gallardo J. ,
  • 46', del Villar E. , Bruno Mendez ,
  • 46', Herrera H. , Ruiz M. ,
  • 58', 1 - 4, Ibanez N. , Lainez D. (A),
  • 65', Castro N. , Vega A. ,
  • 65', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. , Virgen O. ,
  • 67', Aquino J. , Lorona V. ,
  • 73', Gallardo J. 🟨,
  • 76', Lainez D. , Joaquim ,
  • 76', Garza J. , Rodriguez O. ,
  • 80', Lorona V. 🟨,
  • 80', Helinho 🟨,
  • 82', Herrera O. , Vigon J. ,
  • 82', Brunetta J. , Cordova S. ,
  • 88', 2 - 4, Gallardo J. , Vega A. (A),
  • 90+3', Virgen O. 🟨,
  • 90+3', 3 - 4, Ruiz M. , Vega A. (A),
  • 90+6', Romero F. 🟨,
  • 90+7', Bruno Mendez 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Toluca
55.8%
Draw
25.7%
Tigres UANL
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
52% 26.1% 21.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)
  • Tigres UANL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)
  • Toluca - Tigres UANL Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.72
    (1.79)
    3.79
    (3.56)
    5.23
    (4.25)
    3.6%
    (7.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Toluca - Tigres UANL?
  • Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Tigres will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 50.6%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.
    • Tigres may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Toluca is a strong favorite.
    • There are questionable in Toluca: Helinho (Knock) Ruiz M. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Tigres: Flores L. (Muscle Injury) Guerrero R. (Ankle Injury)
    • We predict that Toluca will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 29:30. (average 1.5:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:8. (average 2.1:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Tigres UANL were as follows:
    17.05.2025 Toluca - Tigres UANL 3:0
    14.05.2025 Tigres UANL - Toluca 1:1
    01.02.2025 Toluca - Tigres UANL 1:0
    06.11.2024 Tigres UANL - Toluca 2:1
    02.03.2024 Toluca - Tigres UANL 2:1
    Latest results of Toluca
    20.07.2025 Club América - Toluca 1:3
    16.07.2025 Santos Laguna - Toluca 2:4
    12.07.2025 Toluca - Necaxa 3:1
    25.05.2025 Toluca - Club América 2:0
    22.05.2025 Club América - Toluca 0:0
    Latest results of Tigres UANL
    19.07.2025 Tigres UANL - Juárez 1:0
    17.05.2025 Toluca - Tigres UANL 3:0
    14.05.2025 Tigres UANL - Toluca 1:1
    11.05.2025 Tigres UANL - Necaxa 2:2
    08.05.2025 Necaxa - Tigres UANL 0:0
    Mexican Liga MX Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Cruz Azul972019:10923
    2Monterrey971120:11922
    3Toluca961222:111119
    4Club America953118:10818
    5Club Tijuana944119:10916
    6Tigres UANL944117:9816
    7UNAM Pumas934212:10213
    8Pachuca941411:10113
    9Juarez933310:11-112
    10Club Leon93248:14-611
    11Atl. San Luis931515:15010
    12Necaxa92348:14-69
    13Guadalajara Chivas922511:16-58
    14Santos Laguna921612:17-57
    15Mazatlan FC914410:15-57
    16Atlas914415:22-77
    17Queretaro92169:16-77
    18Puebla91177:22-154

          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )

    Which TV channels are streaming of Toluca - Tigres UANL?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    mexicoMexicoAzteca 7, Azteca Deportes
    south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
    usaUsaTUDN App, TUDN, Univision
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