Termalica Nieciecza vs Pogoń Szczecin: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Polish Ekstraklasa Termalica Nieciecza - Pogoń Szczecin
Result
1:1
02/08/2025 at 08:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Ekstraklasa - Round 3
  • Referee: Rzucidlo P. (Pol)
Termalica Nieciecza - Pogoń Szczecin - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.421.01
Ball Possession
42%58%
Total shots
1611
Shots on target
72
Big Chances
43
Corner Kicks
69
Passes
75% (249/332)84% (383/454)
Yellow Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.421.01
xG on target (xGOT)
1.240.72
Total shots
1611
Shots on target
72
Shots off target
45
Blocked Shots
54
Shots inside the Box
98
Shots outside the Box
74
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
43
Corner Kicks
69
Touches in opposition box
2219
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
148
Passes
75% (249/332)84% (383/454)
Long passes
46% (26/57)38% (15/40)
Passes in final third
54% (51/94)72% (65/90)
Crosses
21% (3/14)8% (2/25)
Expected assists (xA)
1.100.79
Throw-ins
2118
Fouls
814
Tackles
44% (4/9)89% (8/9)
Duels won
5031
Clearances
3621
Interceptions
610
Errors leading to shot
03
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
16
xGOT faced
0.721.24
Goals prevented
-0.28-0.15

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 1', Grosicki K. 🟨,
  • 18', 1 - 0, Kasperkiewicz A. , Ambrosiewicz M. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Koutris L. , Leo Borges ,
  • 46', Przyborek A. , Ndiaye M. ,
  • 46', Paryzek P. , Juwara M. ,
  • 64', Jimenez J. , Strzalek I. ,
  • 65', Trubeha A. , Kurzawa R. ,
  • 68', 1 - 1, Grosicki K. , Ulvestad F. (A),
  • 68', Wahlqvist L. , Lis J. ,
  • 69', Wolski M. , Hilbrycht D. ,
  • 77', Loncar D. , Keramitsis D. ,
  • 82', Fassbender M. , Deisadze D. ,
  • 82', Boboc R. , Masoero L. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Termalica Nieciecza
37.7%
Draw
27.8%
Pogoń Szczecin
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
31.5% 29.2% 39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31% 29.7% 39.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Termalica Nieciecza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Termalica Nieciecza's performance.
  • Pogoń Szczecin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (-6.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Termalica Nieciecza that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (+5.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pogoń Szczecin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Termalica Nieciecza - Pogoń Szczecin Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.62
    (2.95)
    3.59
    (3.18)
    2.91
    (2.36)
    0.3%
    (7.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Termalica Nieciecza - Pogoń Szczecin?
  • Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Termalica will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Pogoń Szczecin will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Pogoń Szczecin: 8%64.8%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 1.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • Pogoń Szczecin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • There will not play in Pogoń Szczecin: Renyer (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Termalica: Zapolnik K. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Pogoń Szczecin: Cojocaru V. (Injury)
    • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:21. (average 1.3:2.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Termalica won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1.5:2).
    Latest results of Pogoń Szczecin
    Polish Ekstraklasa Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Wisla Plock33006:159
    2Radomiak Radom32109:367
    3Cracovia32108:357
    4Widzew Lodz32016:336
    5Gornik Zabrze32014:316
    6Lech Poznan32017:8-16
    7Termalica B-B31115:324
    8Legia21102:024
    9Pogon Szczecin31116:7-14
    10Rakow31023:5-23
    11Motor Lublin21012:4-23
    12Jagiellonia21013:6-33
    13Zaglebie30213:4-12
    14Arka Gdynia30211:2-12
    15GKS Katowice30122:6-41
    16Korona Kielce30121:5-41
    17Piast Gliwice20020:3-30
    18Lechia Gdansk30126:8-2-4

          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ Division 1

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