Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer USL Championship Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion
Result
2:2
03/05/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : USL Championship
Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.361.14
Ball Possession
46%54%
Total shots
1613
Shots on target
74
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
72
Passes
83% (264/320)83% (320/387)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
2.361.14
xG on target (xGOT)
1.400.84
Total shots
1613
Shots on target
74
Shots off target
72
Blocked Shots
27
Shots inside the Box
116
Shots outside the Box
57
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
72
Touches in opposition box
2526
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
148
Passes
83% (264/320)83% (320/387)
Long passes
50% (21/42)46% (21/46)
Passes in final third
72% (92/127)71% (65/92)
Crosses
40% (6/15)20% (2/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.191.28
Throw-ins
1914
Fouls
814
Tackles
63% (10/16)64% (7/11)
Duels won
4931
Clearances
1113
Interceptions
65
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
25
xGOT faced
0.841.40
Goals prevented
-1.48-0.60

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 26', 1 - 0, Fernandes L. (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 65', Pacius W. , Wyke L. ,
  • 69', Tregarthen S. , McIllhatton S. ,
  • 69', Damus R. , Preston T. ,
  • 69', Kavita P. , Suarez S. ,
  • 70', 1 - 1, Martinez E. ,
  • 76', 1 - 2, Trejo D. , Preston T. (A),
  • 78', Fernandes L. , Mustali E. ,
  • 79', Pasher T. , Torres R. ,
  • 89', Trejo D. , Turnbull S. ,
  • 90+3', 2 - 2, Niyongabire P. , Mustali E. (A),
  • 90+5', Preston T. 🟨,
  • 90+5', 🟨,
  • 90+6', Lasso F. 🟨,

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning


Tampa Bay Rowdies
54.5%
Draw
24.2%
Birmingham Legion
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
44.9% 27.2% 27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6% 27% 28.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Tampa Bay Rowdies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tampa Bay Rowdies's performance.
  • Birmingham Legion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Birmingham Legion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Rowdies than the current prediction. (-9.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tampa Bay Rowdies that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (+6.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Birmingham Legion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.7
    (2.06)
    3.84
    (3.4)
    4.36
    (3.31)
    7.7%
    (8.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • Preview Facts
    • The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 11 and 9)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 1.
    • Tampa Bay is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • In recent matches, Birmingham has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • In this match, Tampa Bay is considered a favorite.
    • In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:15. (average 1:1.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Tampa Bay won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1.3:1.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion were as follows:
    11.09.2024 Birmingham Legion - Tampa Bay Rowdies 2:0
    11.05.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion 0:1
    08.05.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion 6:4
    21.10.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion 0:3
    15.07.2023 Birmingham Legion - Tampa Bay Rowdies 1:0
    Latest results of Tampa Bay Rowdies
    USL Championship Table
    2025

    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Louisville City23166146:182854
    2Charleston23162547:242350
    3Loudoun23114837:35237
    4North Carolina22103934:32233
    5Hartford Athletic2395933:27632
    6Detroit2388729:26332
    7Pittsburgh2277821:21028
    8Indy Eleven23751136:42-626
    9Rhode Island23661116:24-824
    10Birmingham23410929:38-922
    11Tampa Bay22631324:34-1021
    12Miami FC23551322:38-1620


    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1FC Tulsa23127438:261243
    2Sacramento Republic22107533:171637
    3El Paso2288637:32532
    4Lexington2387825:29-431
    5New Mexico2193927:30-330
    6Colorado Springs2286829:30-130
    7San Antonio2286826:28-230
    8Phoenix Rising2379738:40-230
    9Orange County SC2184933:33028
    10Oakland Roots21731125:32-724
    11Monterey Bay24661224:32-824
    12Las Vegas Lights23661118:39-2124

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