Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

09/04/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Amalie Arena (Tampa, FL).

: NHL

Match Stats


Shots on Goal
28	31
Shots off target
26	15
Shooting PCT
10.71% (3/28)	12.9% (4/31)
Blocked Shots
33	15
Goalkeeper Saves
27	25
Saves PCT
87.1% (27/31)	89.29% (25/28)
Penalties
3	6
PIM
11	15
Power-play Goals
2	1
Shorthanded Goals
0	0
Power-play PCT
33.33% (2/6)	33.33% (1/3)
Pen. Killing PCT
66.67% (2/3)	66.67% (4/6)
Hits
25	18
Faceoffs Won
20	31
Faceoffs %
39.22	60.78
Giveaways
13	12
Takeaways
6	4
Empty Net Goals
0	0

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Period (1 - 2)
01:13, 0 - 1, Marner M. (G), Matthews A. (A),
03:33, 0 - 2, Knies M. (G), Matthews A. (A), Marner M. (A2)
03:42, Tavares J. (2 min),
18:58, 1 - 2, Perbix N. (G), Cirelli A. (A), Hagel B. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
19:01, Laughton S. (2 min),
3rd Period (2 - 1)
00:50, 2 - 2, Bjorkstrand O. (G), Kucherov N. (A), Hedman V. (A2)
01:18, Lilleberg E. (2 min),
02:02, 2 - 3, Knies M. (G), Tavares J. (A), Marner M. (A2)
03:24, Cernak E. (2 min),
03:24, Knies M. (2 min),
03:38, Domi M. (2 min),
09:25, McMann B. (5 min),
09:25, Point B. (5 min),
09:25, Robertson N. (2 min),
11:05, 3 - 3, Hedman V. (G), Bjorkstrand O. (A), Hagel B. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 1)
02:56, 3 - 4, Knies M. (G), Matthews A. (A), Rielly M. (A2)

Highlights

Chances of winning

Tampa Bay Lightning
50.2%

Draw
21.5%

Toronto Maple Leafs
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

22.5%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

22.7%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tampa Bay Lightning's performance.

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toronto Maple Leafs might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tampa Bay Lightning that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toronto Maple Leafs could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.25)	4.44 ↑ (4.24)	3.31 ↑ (2.72)	5.7% (5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

Watch this match and NHL with fubo (for US customers)

Network on : FanDuel Sports Network Sun

What is the prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs?

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Toronto will win (votes: 4 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tampa Bay: 46.1% – 91.5%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Tampa Bay Lightning will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.

Preview Facts

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).
Tampa Bay is Qualified for NHL (Play Offs )
Toronto is Qualified for NHL (Play Offs )
Last 5 head-to-head matches Tampa Bay won 2.
Recent matches Tampa Bay is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Toronto is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Toronto could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
Recently Tampa Bay have a series of guest games.
Tampa Bay will have a small advantage in this match.
There will not play in Toronto: Hakanpaa J. (Lower-Body Injury) Kampf D. (Upper-Body Injury) McCabe J. (Injury) Pacioretty M. (Injury)
Last 20 head-to-head matches Tampa Bay won 8 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 12 matches and goals 71:75 (average 3.6:3.8).
Including matches at home between the teams Tampa Bay won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 38:37 (average 3.8:3.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Tampa Bay Lightning won against Toronto Maple Leafs?

Tampa Bay Lightning has won 4 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Toronto Maple Leafs won against Tampa Bay Lightning?

Toronto Maple Leafs has won 10 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs were as follows:

20.01.2025 Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning 5:3

30.11.2024 Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs 3:5

21.10.2024 Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning 5:2

17.04.2024 Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs 6:4

03.04.2024 Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning 1:4

Latest results of Tampa Bay Lightning

07.04.2025 New York Rangers - Tampa Bay Lightning 1:5 ✺

05.04.2025 Buffalo Sabres - Tampa Bay Lightning 3:2 ✺

03.04.2025 Ottawa Senators - Tampa Bay Lightning 2:1 ✺

01.04.2025 New York Islanders - Tampa Bay Lightning 1:4 ✺

29.03.2025 Tampa Bay Lightning - New York Islanders 5:3 ✺

Latest results of Toronto Maple Leafs

08.04.2025 Florida Panthers - Toronto Maple Leafs 3:1 ✺

05.04.2025 Toronto Maple Leafs - Columbus Blue Jackets 5:0 ✺

02.04.2025 Toronto Maple Leafs - Florida Panthers 3:2 ✺

30.03.2025 Anaheim Ducks - Toronto Maple Leafs 2:3 ✺

29.03.2025 Los Angeles Kings - Toronto Maple Leafs 1:3 ✺

NHL Table

Main

Western Conference

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
1	Anaheim Ducks	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
2	Winnipeg Jets	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
3	Calgary Flames	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
4	Chicago Blackhawks	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
5	Colorado Avalanche	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
6	Dallas Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
7	Edmonton Oilers	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
8	Los Angeles Kings	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
9	Minnesota Wild	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
10	Nashville Predators	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
11	San Jose Sharks	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
12	St. Louis Blues	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
13	Vancouver Canucks	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
14	Vegas Golden Knights	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
15	Seattle Kraken	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
16	Utah Mammoth	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0

Eastern Conference

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
1	Detroit Red Wings	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
2	Pittsburgh Penguins	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
3	Boston Bruins	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
4	Buffalo Sabres	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
5	Carolina Hurricanes	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
6	Columbus Blue Jackets	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
7	Florida Panthers	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
8	Montreal Canadiens	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
9	New Jersey Devils	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
10	New York Islanders	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
11	Ottawa Senators	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
12	Philadelphia Flyers	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
13	Tampa Bay Lightning	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
14	Toronto Maple Leafs	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
15	Washington Capitals	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
16	New York Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0

Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )

Which TV channels are streaming of Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport 1
France	beIN Sports 2
Hungary	Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Disney+, Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Viaplay
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+