Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Hockey NHL Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs
Result
3:4 OT
09/04/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : NHL
Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Shots on Goal
2831
Shots off target
2615
Shooting PCT
10.71% (3/28)12.9% (4/31)
Blocked Shots
3315
Goalkeeper Saves
2725
Saves PCT
87.1% (27/31)89.29% (25/28)
Penalties
36
PIM
1115
Power-play Goals
21
Shorthanded Goals
00
Power-play PCT
33.33% (2/6)33.33% (1/3)
Pen. Killing PCT
66.67% (2/3)66.67% (4/6)
Hits
2518
Faceoffs Won
2031
Faceoffs %
39.2260.78
Giveaways
1312
Takeaways
64
Empty Net Goals
00

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Period (1 - 2)
  • 01:13, 0 - 1, Marner M. (G), Matthews A. (A),
  • 03:33, 0 - 2, Knies M. (G), Matthews A. (A), Marner M. (A2)
  • 03:42, Tavares J. (2 min),
  • 18:58, 1 - 2, Perbix N. (G), Cirelli A. (A), Hagel B. (A2)
  • 2nd Period (0 - 0)
  • 19:01, Laughton S. (2 min),
  • 3rd Period (2 - 1)
  • 00:50, 2 - 2, Bjorkstrand O. (G), Kucherov N. (A), Hedman V. (A2)
  • 01:18, Lilleberg E. (2 min),
  • 02:02, 2 - 3, Knies M. (G), Tavares J. (A), Marner M. (A2)
  • 03:24, Cernak E. (2 min),
  • 03:24, Knies M. (2 min),
  • 03:38, Domi M. (2 min),
  • 09:25, McMann B. (5 min),
  • 09:25, Point B. (5 min),
  • 09:25, Robertson N. (2 min),
  • 11:05, 3 - 3, Hedman V. (G), Bjorkstrand O. (A), Hagel B. (A2)
  • Overtime (0 - 1)
  • 02:56, 3 - 4, Knies M. (G), Matthews A. (A), Rielly M. (A2)

Highlights

Chances of winning


Tampa Bay Lightning 50.2%Draw 21.5%Toronto Maple Leafs 28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
Tampa Bay Lightning 42.4%Draw 22.5%Toronto Maple Leafs 35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

Tampa Bay Lightning 42.8%Draw 22.7%Toronto Maple Leafs 34.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Tampa Bay Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tampa Bay Lightning's performance.
  • Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toronto Maple Leafs might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (-7.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tampa Bay Lightning that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+6.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toronto Maple Leafs could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.89 ↓
    (2.25)    		 4.44 ↑
    (4.24)    		 3.31 ↑
    (2.72)    		 5.7%
    (5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

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  • Network on : FanDuel Sports Network Sun
    •
    What is the prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs?
    The most likely score is 3:2. User prediction is will win! ( of users predict this).
    Preview Facts
    • One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).
    • Tampa Bay is Qualified for NHL (Play Offs )
    • Toronto is Qualified for NHL (Play Offs )
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Tampa Bay won 2.
    • Recent matches Tampa Bay is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Toronto is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
    • Toronto could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • Recently Tampa Bay have a series of guest games.
    • Tampa Bay will have a small advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Toronto: Hakanpaa J. (Lower-Body Injury) Kampf D. (Upper-Body Injury) McCabe J. (Injury) Pacioretty M. (Injury)
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches Tampa Bay won 8 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 12 matches and goals 71:75 (average 3.6:3.8).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Tampa Bay won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 38:37 (average 3.8:3.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs were as follows:
    20.01.2025 Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning 5:3
    30.11.2024 Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs 3:5
    21.10.2024 Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning 5:2
    17.04.2024 Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs 6:4
    03.04.2024 Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning 1:4
    Latest results of Tampa Bay Lightning
    07.04.2025 New York Rangers - Tampa Bay Lightning 1:5 ✺
    05.04.2025 Buffalo Sabres - Tampa Bay Lightning 3:2 ✺
    03.04.2025 Ottawa Senators - Tampa Bay Lightning 2:1 ✺
    01.04.2025 New York Islanders - Tampa Bay Lightning 1:4 ✺
    29.03.2025 Tampa Bay Lightning - New York Islanders 5:3 ✺
    Latest results of Toronto Maple Leafs
    08.04.2025 Florida Panthers - Toronto Maple Leafs 3:1 ✺
    05.04.2025 Toronto Maple Leafs - Columbus Blue Jackets 5:0 ✺
    02.04.2025 Toronto Maple Leafs - Florida Panthers 3:2 ✺
    30.03.2025 Anaheim Ducks - Toronto Maple Leafs 2:3 ✺
    29.03.2025 Los Angeles Kings - Toronto Maple Leafs 1:3 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/8-finals
    1Toronto Maple Leafs (2)Ottawa Senators (6)4 : 2
    2Tampa Bay Lightning (3)Florida Panthers (5)1 : 4
    3Washington Capitals (1)Montreal Canadiens (8)4 : 1
    4Carolina Hurricanes (4)New Jersey Devils (7)4 : 1
    5Winnipeg Jets (1)St. Louis Blues (8)4 : 3
    6Dallas Stars (3)Colorado Avalanche (5)4 : 3
    7Vegas Golden Knights (2)Minnesota Wild (7)4 : 2
    8Los Angeles Kings (4)Edmonton Oilers (6)2 : 4

    Quarter-finals
    1Toronto Maple Leafs (2)Florida Panthers (5)1 : 0
    2Washington Capitals (1)Carolina Hurricanes (4)
    3Winnipeg Jets (1)Dallas Stars (3)
    4Vegas Golden Knights (2)Edmonton Oilers (6)

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
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