Swansea City vs Nottingham Forest: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer English League Cup Swansea City - Nottingham Forest
Result
3:2
17/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : EFL Cup - 1/16-finals
Swansea City - Nottingham Forest - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.722.83
Ball Possession
45%55%
Total shots
1417
Shots on target
43
Big Chances
24
Corner Kicks
36
Passes
85% (379/446)86% (474/551)
Yellow Cards
42
Expected Goals (xG)
0.722.83
xG on target (xGOT)
0.701.31
Total shots
1417
Shots on target
43
Shots off target
49
Blocked Shots
65
Shots inside the Box
316
Shots outside the Box
111
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
24
Corner Kicks
36
Touches in opposition box
1343
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
14
Free Kicks
1013
Passes
85% (379/446)86% (474/551)
Long passes
34% (14/41)32% (8/25)
Passes in final third
65% (75/115)79% (91/115)
Crosses
20% (2/10)40% (4/10)
Expected assists (xA)
0.513.64
Throw-ins
1615
Fouls
1310
Tackles
36% (5/14)56% (9/16)
Duels won
3844
Clearances
1813
Interceptions
114
Errors leading to shot
20
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
21
xGOT faced
1.310.70
Goals prevented
-0.69-2.30

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 15', 0 - 1, Igor Jesus ,
  • 31', Galbraith E. 🟨,
  • 45+1', 0 - 2, Igor Jesus , Hutchinson O. (A),
  • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
  • 46', Igor Jesus , Kalimuendo A. ,
  • 46', Morato , Cunha ,
  • 54', Savona N. 🟨,
  • 55', Burgess C. 🟨,
  • 58', Key J. 🟨,
  • 62', Bakwa D. , Hudson-Odoi C. ,
  • 62', Douglas Luiz , Gibbs-White M. ,
  • 63', Samuels-Smith I. , Tymon J. ,
  • 63', Franco G. , Widell M. ,
  • 64', Manuel Hedilazio B. , Ronald ,
  • 68', 1 - 2, Burgess C. , Eom J. (A),
  • 74', Gibbs-White M. 🟨,
  • 79', Idah A. , Vipotnik Z. ,
  • 84', McAtee J. , Sangare I. ,
  • 86', Yalcouye M. , Cullen L. ,
  • 88', Widell M. 🟨,
  • 90+3', 2 - 2, Vipotnik Z. , Cullen L. (A),
  • 90+7', 3 - 2, Burgess C. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Swansea City
21.6%
Draw
24%
Nottingham Forest
54.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
18.8% 23.6% 57.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23% 19.3% 47.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Swansea City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)
  • Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swansea City than the current prediction. (+1.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (-7.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nottingham Forest, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Swansea City - Nottingham Forest Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    4.39
    (4.97)
    3.93
    (3.95)
    1.76
    (1.62)
    5.1%
    (7.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Swansea City - Nottingham Forest?
  • Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Swansea will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). Nottingham will win (votes: 16 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Nottingham: 54.1%91.3%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Swansea (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Nottingham (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swansea won 3.
    • Swansea is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Nottingham's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Recently, Swansea has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Nottingham is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in Swansea: Fulton J. (Injury) Santos R. (Knee Injury) Stamenic M. (Injury)
    • There will not play in Nottingham: Aina O. (Hamstring Injury) Dominguez N. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Nottingham: Murillo (Injury)
    • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Swansea won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:16. (average 1.3:1.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Swansea won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.4:1.2).
    Latest results of Swansea City
    Latest results of Nottingham Forest
    Draw
    Main

    1/64-finals
    1BirminghamSheffield Utd2 : 1
    2BlackpoolPort Vale0 : 1
    4ByeArsenal
    5SwanseaCrawley3 : 1
    6PlymouthQPR3 : 2
    8ByeNottingham
    9TranmereBurton1 : 2
    10HarrogateLincoln1 : 3
    12ByeChelsea
    13TottenhamBye
    15AccringtonPeterborough2 : 1
    16MiddlesbroughDoncaster0 : 4
    17BournemouthBye
    18ByeBrentford
    20ByeAston Villa
    21SunderlandBye
    22HuddersfieldLeicester3 : 2
    24ByeManchester City
    25LiverpoolBye
    27WatfordNorwich1 : 2
    28NorthamptonSouthampton0 : 1
    29NewcastleBye
    31StokeWalsall1 : 0
    32BlackburnBradford City1 : 2
    33BoltonSheffield Wed3 : 4
    34ByeLeeds
    35GrimsbyShrewsbury3 : 1
    36ByeManchester Utd
    37WolvesBye
    38ByeWest Ham
    39EvertonBye
    40ChesterfieldMansfield0 : 2
    41Crystal PalaceBye
    43NewportMillwall0 : 1
    44CoventryLuton1 : 0
    45BurnleyBye
    46West BromDerby1 : 2
    47CardiffSwindon2 : 1
    48CheltenhamExeter2 : 0
    49BarrowPreston0 : 1
    50WrexhamHull4 : 3
    51PortsmouthReading1 : 2
    52GillinghamAFC Wimbledon1 : 2
    53WiganNotts Co1 : 0
    54Stockport CountyCrewe3 : 1
    55BromleyIpswich2 : 1
    56Leyton OrientWycombe0 : 1
    57BarnsleyFleetwood3 : 2
    58SalfordRotherham0 : 1
    59Oxford UtdColchester1 : 0
    60ByeBrighton
    61FulhamBye
    62Bristol CityMK Dons2 : 0
    63Bristol RoversCambridge Utd0 : 2
    64CharltonStevenage3 : 1

    1/32-finals
    1BirminghamPort Vale0 : 1
    2ByeArsenal
    3SwanseaPlymouth2 : 1
    4ByeNottingham
    5BurtonLincoln0 : 1
    6ByeChelsea
    7TottenhamBye
    8AccringtonDoncaster0 : 2
    9BournemouthBrentford0 : 2
    10ByeAston Villa
    11SunderlandHuddersfield1 : 2
    12ByeManchester City
    13LiverpoolBye
    14NorwichSouthampton0 : 3
    15NewcastleBye
    16StokeBradford City0 : 3
    17Sheffield WedLeeds2 : 1
    18GrimsbyManchester Utd3 : 2
    19WolvesWest Ham3 : 2
    20EvertonMansfield2 : 0
    21Crystal PalaceBye
    22MillwallCoventry2 : 1
    23BurnleyDerby2 : 1
    24CardiffCheltenham3 : 0
    25PrestonWrexham2 : 3
    26ReadingAFC Wimbledon2 : 1
    27WiganStockport County1 : 0
    28BromleyWycombe1 : 2
    29BarnsleyRotherham2 : 1
    30Oxford UtdBrighton0 : 6
    31FulhamBristol City2 : 0
    32Cambridge UtdCharlton3 : 1

    1/16-finals
    1Port ValeArsenal
    2SwanseaNottingham3 : 2
    3LincolnChelsea
    4TottenhamDoncaster
    5BrentfordAston Villa2 : 1
    6HuddersfieldManchester City
    7LiverpoolSouthampton
    8NewcastleBradford City
    9Sheffield WedGrimsby0 : 1
    10WolvesEverton
    11Crystal PalaceMillwall2 : 1
    12BurnleyCardiff
    13WrexhamReading
    14WiganWycombe
    15BarnsleyBrighton
    16FulhamCambridge Utd
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