Southampton vs Stoke City: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer English League Championship Southampton - Stoke City
Result
1:2
23/08/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Championship - Round 3
  • Referee: Smith J. (Eng)
Southampton - Stoke City - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.311.20
Ball Possession
65%35%
Total shots
1813
Shots on target
25
Big Chances
43
Corner Kicks
73
Passes
87% (397/456)73% (190/259)
Yellow Cards
15
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
2.311.20
xG on target (xGOT)
0.591.88
Total shots
1813
Shots on target
25
Shots off target
104
Blocked Shots
64
Shots inside the Box
138
Shots outside the Box
55
Hit the Woodwork
20
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
43
Corner Kicks
73
Touches in opposition box
3215
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
115
Passes
87% (397/456)73% (190/259)
Long passes
38% (15/39)44% (24/55)
Passes in final third
80% (116/145)58% (53/91)
Crosses
30% (14/46)11% (2/19)
Expected assists (xA)
2.020.41
Throw-ins
1818
Fouls
512
Tackles
67% (8/12)38% (3/8)
Duels won
4145
Clearances
2738
Interceptions
65
Errors leading to shot
20
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
31
xGOT faced
1.880.59
Goals prevented
-0.12-0.41

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 21', Welington , Manning R. ,
  • 25', Tchamadeu J. 🟨,
  • 28', Mubama D. 🟨,
  • 45+3', Seko T. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 46', Armstrong A. , Downs D. ,
  • 55', 0 - 1, Baker L. ,
  • 57', Wood N. 🟨,
  • 59', Mubama D. 🟨,
  • 68', Wood N. , Stewart R. ,
  • 71', Seko T. , Phillips A. ,
  • 71', Bae J. , Bocat E. ,
  • 71', Johansson V. 🟨,
  • 76', 0 - 2, Thomas S. , Johansson V. (A),
  • 79', Charles S. , Roerslev Rasmussen M. ,
  • 79', Robinson J. , Archer C. ,
  • 80', 1 - 2, Harwood-Bellis T. , Fernandes M. (A),
  • 81', Manhoef M. , Bozenik R. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Southampton
50.9%
Draw
26.1%
Stoke City
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
54.2% 25% 20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3% 27.8% 18.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)
  • Stoke City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+9.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Southampton, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-4.3%)
  • Southampton - Stoke City Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.87
    (1.73)
    3.63
    (3.75)
    4.17
    (4.5)
    5.1%
    (6.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Southampton - Stoke City?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. S`hampton (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Stoke (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • Users Predictions: Southampton will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 59.76%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 2.
    • In recent matches, S`hampton has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Stoke is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Recently, Stoke has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, S`hampton is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in S`hampton: Aribo J. (Inactive) Bree J. (Injury)
    • There will not play in Stoke: Cisse L. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in S`hampton: Edozie S. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Stoke: Seko T. (Injury)
    • In the last 16 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:19. (average 1.2:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, S`hampton won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 0.9:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Southampton - Stoke City were as follows:
    29.10.2024 Southampton - Stoke City 3:2
    27.04.2024 Southampton - Stoke City 0:1
    03.10.2023 Stoke City - Southampton 0:1
    Latest results of Southampton
    Latest results of Stoke City
    English League Championship Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Middlesbrough44007:1612
    2West Brom43106:3310
    3Stoke43018:359
    4Leicester43016:339
    5Coventry422014:688
    6Bristol City42209:458
    7Swansea42114:227
    8Portsmouth42114:317
    9Preston42114:317
    10Birmingham42114:407
    11Norwich42026:516
    12Millwall42023:6-36
    13Southampton41216:605
    14Watford41215:505
    15Wrexham41127:704
    16Charlton41122:4-24
    17Hull41125:9-44
    18QPR41126:11-54
    19Blackburn41034:5-13
    20Ipswich40314:5-13
    21Derby40227:11-42
    22Oxford Utd40134:7-31
    23Sheffield Wed40133:9-61
    24Sheffield Utd40041:7-60

          Promotion ~ Premier League
          Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ League One

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