Stjarnan vs Afturelding: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

28/07/2025 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Samsung völlurinn (Gardabaer).

: Besta deild karla - Round 16
Referee: Thrastarson S. H. (Ice)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.47	0.53
Ball Possession
65%	35%
Total shots
23	11
Shots on target
6	4
Big Chances
3	2
Corner Kicks
12	5
Passes
87% (396/454)	71% (181/254)
Yellow Cards
4	4
Red Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
2.47	0.53
xG on target (xGOT)
1.56	0.22
Total shots
23	11
Shots on target
6	4
Shots off target
7	5
Blocked Shots
10	2
Shots inside the Box
15	7
Shots outside the Box
8	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
2	0
Big Chances
3	2
Corner Kicks
12	5
Touches in opposition box
38	17
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
3	0
Free Kicks
11	9
Passes
87% (396/454)	71% (181/254)
Long passes
67% (28/42)	38% (20/52)
Passes in final third
79% (143/180)	45% (25/56)
Crosses
23% (13/57)	20% (3/15)
Expected assists (xA)
2.50	0.28
Throw-ins
22	25
Fouls
9	11
Tackles
71% (12/17)	54% (7/13)
Duels won
47	39
Clearances
24	51
Interceptions
9	8
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	2
xGOT faced
0.22	1.56
Goals prevented
0.22	-2.44

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Hafthorsson T. G. ⚽,
15', Waren B. 🟨,
28', Johannsson A. 🟨,
31', Gunnarsson J. 🟨,
35', Andresson A. 🟨,
37', Ingimarsson S. T. ↓, Nokkvason G. ↑,
37', Andresson J. 🟨,
39', Andresson A. 🟥,
42', Johannsson A. ↓, Bjarnason G. ↑,
45+2', Thorisson T. 🟨,
45+5', Saevarsson A. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Johannsson A. ↓, Palsson S. ↑,
46', Thorisson T. ↓, Eggertsson O. ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Waren B. ⚽, Fridjonsson S. (A),
60', Hafthorsson T. G. ↓, Runolfsson B. ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Bjarnason A. ⚽, Waren B. (A),
75', 3 - 1, Nokkvason G. ⚽,
79', Stokke B. ↓, Ragnarsson A. ↑,
79', Barkarson B. B. ↓, Kassi L. ↑,
83', Gunnarsson J. ↓, Gudlaugsson B. ↑,
85', 4 - 1, Eggertsson O. ⚽,
86', Fridjonsson S. 🟨,
87', Birgisson A. ↓, Brink H. O. ↑,
87', Orvarsson O. ↓, Jonsson S. ↑,

Chances of winning

Stjarnan
54.8%

Draw
22.7%

Afturelding
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

22.4%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

21.8%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stjarnan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Afturelding has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stjarnan than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Afturelding than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Stjarnan - Afturelding Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.75)	4.11 ↓ (4.16)	4.15 ↑ (3.84)	7.2% (7.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

What is the prediction for Stjarnan - Afturelding?

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Stjarnan (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Users Predictions: Stjarnan will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Besta deild karla (Championship Group: ) and 7 in the zone Besta deild karla (Relegation Group: )).
Recent form of Stjarnan has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Afturelding's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Recently, Stjarnan has had a series of away games.
In this match, Stjarnan is a strong favorite.
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Stjarnan won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).
Including home match between the teams, Stjarnan won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1.

How many head-to-head matches has Stjarnan won against Afturelding?

Stjarnan has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Afturelding won against Stjarnan?

Afturelding has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Stjarnan - Afturelding were as follows:

05.05.2025 Afturelding - Stjarnan 3:0

10.02.2023 Stjarnan - Afturelding 4:1

Latest results of Stjarnan

14.07.2025 ÍBV Vestmannaeyar - Stjarnan 1:0 ✺

07.07.2025 FH Hafnarfjordur - Stjarnan 1:1 ✺

01.07.2025 Valur - Stjarnan 3:1 ✺

27.06.2025 Stjarnan - Breiðablik 1:4 ✺

22.06.2025 Akraness - Stjarnan 0:3 ✺

Latest results of Afturelding

17.07.2025 Afturelding - Fram 1:1 ✺

03.07.2025 Afturelding - Breiðablik 2:2 ✺

29.06.2025 Vikingur Reykjavik - Afturelding 2:1 ✺

23.06.2025 ÍBV Vestmannaeyar - Afturelding 1:2 ✺

19.06.2025 Afturelding - Fram 0:1 ✺

Icelandic Besta-deild karla Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Valur ✔	21	12	4	5	52:33	19	40
2	Vikingur Reykjavik ✔	21	11	6	4	40:27	13	39
3	Stjarnan ✔	21	11	4	6	41:34	7	37
4	Breidablik ✔	20	9	6	5	36:31	5	33
5	Hafnarfjordur	21	8	5	8	39:33	6	29
6	Fram	21	8	4	9	30:29	1	28
7	Vestmannaeyjar	21	8	4	9	23:27	-4	28
8	Vestri	21	8	3	10	22:24	-2	27
9	KA Akureyri	21	7	5	9	25:38	-13	26
10	KR Reykjavik ✔	21	6	6	9	42:44	-2	24
11	Afturelding ✔	21	5	6	10	28:36	-8	21
12	Akranes ✔	20	5	1	14	20:42	-22	16

Promotion ~ Besta deild karla (Championship Group: )
Besta deild karla (Relegation Group: )

Clinched Spots for Teams

Valur is Qualified for Besta deild karla (Championship Group )
Vikingur Reykjavik is Qualified for Besta deild karla (Championship Group )
Stjarnan is Qualified for Besta deild karla (Championship Group )
Breidablik is Qualified for Besta deild karla (Championship Group )
KR Reykjavik is Besta deild karla (Relegation Group )
Afturelding is Besta deild karla (Relegation Group )
Akranes is Besta deild karla (Relegation Group )

Which TV channels are streaming of Stjarnan - Afturelding?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Iceland	SÝN Sport Ísland
World	Onefootball