Legia Warsaw vs Stal Mielec: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

24/05/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw).

: Ekstraklasa - Round 34
Referee: Kochanek M. (Pol)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.60	1.07
Ball Possession
52%	48%
Total shots
19	10
Shots on target
8	3
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
12	2
Passes
82% (361/439)	81% (340/421)
Yellow Cards
1	3
Expected Goals (xG)
2.60	1.07
xG on target (xGOT)
2.42	1.94
Total shots
19	10
Shots on target
8	3
Shots off target
7	3
Blocked Shots
4	4
Shots inside the Box
16	4
Shots outside the Box
3	6
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
12	2
Touches in opposition box
36	13
Accurate through passes
2	0
Offsides
4	2
Free Kicks
8	12
Passes
82% (361/439)	81% (340/421)
Long passes
57% (31/54)	38% (25/66)
Passes in final third
74% (124/167)	73% (35/48)
Crosses
28% (7/25)	17% (2/12)
Expected assists (xA)
2.78	0.45
Throw-ins
15	19
Fouls
12	8
Tackles
53% (8/15)	70% (14/20)
Duels won
50	36
Clearances
16	29
Interceptions
10	7
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	6
xGOT faced
1.94	2.42
Goals prevented
-0.06	0.42

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 2)
57', 0 - 1, Wolsztynski L. (Pen),
59', Shkurin I. ↓, Gual M. ↑,
60', Goncalves C. ↓, Pekhart T. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Pekhart T. ⚽, Gual M. (A),
71', Wolsztynski L. 🟨,
72', Wlazlo P. ↓, Esselink B. ↑,
72', Gerbowski F. ↓, Dadok R. ↑,
72', Wolsztynski L. ↓, Kadzior D. ↑,
77', 1 - 2, Matras M. ⚽,
80', 2 - 2, Wszolek P. ⚽, Elitim J. (A),
83', Knap K. ↓, Tkacz D. ↑,
86', Elitim J. ↓, Wyganowski A. ↑,
87', Matras M. 🟨,
88', Luquinhas ↓, Kucharczyk M. ↑,
90', Jaunzems A. ↓, Zieba D. ↑,
90+4', Jedrzejczyk A. 🟨,
90+4', Jalocha K. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Legia Warsaw
68.4%

Draw
18.1%

Stal Mielec
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.3%

19.4%

14.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.2%

18.9%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Legia Warsaw - Stal Mielec Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.41)	5.17 ↑ (4.83)	6.93 ↑ (6.51)	6.3% (6.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

What is the prediction for Legia Warsaw - Stal Mielec?

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Legia will win (votes: 23 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 100% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Legia Warsaw will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).
Stal Mielec is Relegated to Division 1
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Legia won 3.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Legia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Legia has had a series of away games.
In this match, Legia is the undisputed favorite.
There will not play in Legia: Kapustka B. (Knee Injury) Leszczynski J. (Knee Injury) Ziolkowski J. (Yellow Cards)
There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury) Pajnowski K. (Inactive) Tkacz D. (Inactive)
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Legia won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:16. (average 1.6:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Legia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.8:2.2).

How many head-to-head matches has Legia Warsaw won against Stal Mielec?

Legia Warsaw has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Stal Mielec won against Legia Warsaw?

Stal Mielec has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Legia Warsaw - Stal Mielec were as follows:

01.12.2024 Stal Mielec - Legia Warsaw 2:2

28.04.2024 Stal Mielec - Legia Warsaw 1:3

29.10.2023 Legia Warsaw - Stal Mielec 1:3

12.03.2023 Legia Warsaw - Stal Mielec 2:0

26.08.2022 Stal Mielec - Legia Warsaw 0:1

Latest results of Legia Warsaw

18.05.2025 Cracovia - Legia Warsaw 3:1 ✺

15.05.2025 Widzew Łódź - Legia Warsaw 0:2 ✺

11.05.2025 Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań 0:1 ✺

02.05.2025 Pogoń Szczecin - Legia Warsaw 3:4 ✺

26.04.2025 GKS Katowice - Legia Warsaw 1:3 ✺

Latest results of Stal Mielec

16.05.2025 Stal Mielec - Radomiak Radom 2:2 ✺

12.05.2025 Puszcza Niepołomice - Stal Mielec 2:3 ✺

03.05.2025 Stal Mielec - Raków Częstochowa 0:2 ✺

28.04.2025 Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec 2:2 ✺

22.04.2025 Stal Mielec - Górnik Zabrze 0:0 ✺

Polish Ekstraklasa Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Arka Gdynia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Jagiellonia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Gornik Zabrze	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Korona Kielce	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Piast Gliwice	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	GKS Katowice	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Motor Lublin	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Wisla Plock	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Pogon Szczecin	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Legia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Lech Poznan	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Zaglebie	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Cracovia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	Widzew Lodz	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Radomiak Radom	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Termalica B-B	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Rakow	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	Lechia Gdansk	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	-5

      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ Division 1

Which TV channels are streaming of Legia Warsaw - Stal Mielec?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 360, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball