Lech Poznań vs Stal Mielec: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

08/03/2025 at 14:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Stadion Poznan (Poznań).

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 24
Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.93	0.46
Ball Possession
59%	41%
Goal Attempts
24	11
Shots on Goal
14	3
Shots off Goal
2	4
Blocked Shots
8	4
Big Chances
5	1
Corner Kicks
5	6
Shots inside the Box
14	5
Shots outside the Box
10	6
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	11
Free Kicks
9	11
Offsides
5	1
Fouls
11	9
Yellow Cards
2	2
Throw-ins
16	9
Touches in the Opposition Box
25	12
Passes
89% (477/534)	86% (308/360)
Passes in the final third
81% (131/161)	70% (57/81)
Crosses
31% (4/13)	43% (6/14)
Tackles
75% (12/16)	56% (9/16)
Clearances Total
13	20
Interceptions
6	7

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (2 - 1)
21', 1 - 0, Carstensen R. ⚽, Gholizadeh A. (A),
22', 2 - 0, Hakans D. ⚽, Ishak M. (A),
41', 2 - 1, Dadok R. ⚽, Getinger K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hakans D. ↓, Walemark P. ↑,
51', Senger M. 🟨,
54', Walemark P. 🟨,
58', 3 - 1, Sousa A. ⚽,
65', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Fiabema B. ↑,
68', Carstensen R. 🟨,
73', Murawski R. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
73', Milic A. ↓, Pereira J. ↑,
73', Krykun S. ↓, Beauguel J. ↑,
82', Domanski M. ↓, Hannola P. ↑,
82', Dadok R. ↓, Gerbowski F. ↑,
82', Guillaumier M. ↓, Tkacz D. ↑,
86', Sousa A. ↓, Lisman K. ↑,
86', Senger M. ↓, Wolsztynski L. ↑,
90+2', Jaunzems A. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Lech Poznań 61.8%

Draw 22.4%

Stal Mielec 15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

Lech Poznań 61.5%

Draw 22.2%

Stal Mielec 16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

Lech Poznań 63%

Draw 21.7%

Stal Mielec 15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↑ (1.51)	4.19 ↑ (4.18)	5.92 ↑ (5.7)	6.8% (7.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec?

The most likely score is 1:0. User prediction is Lech Poznań will win! (14 of 15 users predict this).

Preview Facts

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 14).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Lech won 2.
Recent matches Lech is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Stal Mielec is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Lech could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
In this match Lech is a favorite.
There will not play in Lech: Dagerstal F. (Injury)
There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury) Knap K. (Injury)
There are questionable in Lech: Walemark P. (Injury)
Last 10 head-to-head matches Lech won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:8 (average 1.2:0.8).
Including matches at home between the teams Lech won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6:6 (average 1.5:1.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Lech Poznań won against Stal Mielec?

Lech Poznań has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Stal Mielec won against Lech Poznań?

Stal Mielec has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec were as follows:

30.08.2024 Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań 0:2

01.04.2024 Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań 0:0

23.09.2023 Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec 2:1

27.01.2023 Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań 0:0

Latest results of Lech Poznań

01.03.2025 Pogoń Szczecin - Lech Poznań 0:3 ✺

23.02.2025 Lech Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin 3:1 ✺

14.02.2025 Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa 0:1 ✺

09.02.2025 Lechia Gdańsk - Lech Poznań 1:0 ✺

31.01.2025 Lech Poznań - Widzew Łódź 4:1 ✺

Latest results of Stal Mielec

01.03.2025 Stal Mielec - Korona Kielce 0:1 ✺

21.02.2025 Piast Gliwice - Stal Mielec 2:2 ✺

16.02.2025 Stal Mielec - Pogoń Szczecin 1:2 ✺

07.02.2025 Stal Mielec - Jagiellonia Białystok 2:1 ✺

31.01.2025 GKS Katowice - Stal Mielec 1:0 ✺

Polish Ekstraklasa Table

2024/25

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Rakow	31	19	8	4	47:19	28	65
2	Lech Poznan	31	20	3	8	64:29	35	63
3	Jagiellonia	31	16	8	7	52:39	13	56
4	Pogon Szczecin	30	16	5	9	52:34	18	53
5	Legia	30	14	8	8	55:39	16	50
6	Cracovia	31	12	9	10	52:49	3	45
7	Gornik Zabrze	31	12	7	12	40:36	4	43
8	Motor Lublin	30	12	7	11	43:50	-7	43
9	Korona Kielce	31	11	10	10	33:40	-7	43
10	GKS Katowice	31	12	6	13	42:42	0	42
11	Piast Gliwice	31	9	12	10	31:34	-3	39
12	Widzew Lodz	30	10	7	13	34:43	-9	37
13	Radomiak Radom	31	10	7	14	42:47	-5	37
14	Lechia Gdansk	31	9	6	16	36:51	-15	33
15	Zaglebie	31	9	6	16	30:47	-17	33
16	Slask Wroclaw	31	6	10	15	36:49	-13	28
17	Puszcza	31	6	9	16	34:57	-23	27
18	Stal Mielec	31	6	8	17	32:50	-18	26

      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ Division 1

Which TV channels are streaming of Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Canal+ Sport Online, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball