Result
0:2
29/08/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- : Bundesliga - Round 2
- Referee: Dingert C. (Ger)
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Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.48 | 1.42 |
Ball Possession |
---|
48% | 52% |
Total shots |
---|
5 | 17 |
Shots on target |
---|
2 | 6 |
Big Chances |
---|
2 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
2 | 5 |
Passes |
---|
82% (364/443) | 82% (391/477) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
3 | 3 |
Red Cards |
---|
1 | 0 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.48 | 1.42 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
0.18 | 1.61 |
Total shots |
---|
5 | 17 |
Shots on target |
---|
2 | 6 |
Shots off target |
---|
2 | 5 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
1 | 6 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
2 | 11 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
3 | 6 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
2 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
2 | 5 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
10 | 25 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
2 | 2 |
Offsides |
---|
1 | 2 |
Free Kicks |
---|
18 | 13 |
Passes |
---|
82% (364/443) | 82% (391/477) |
Long passes |
---|
40% (23/58) | 48% (29/61) |
Passes in final third |
---|
58% (55/95) | 70% (103/148) |
Crosses |
---|
20% (2/10) | 17% (3/18) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.80 | 0.91 |
Throw-ins |
---|
16 | 26 |
Fouls |
---|
13 | 19 |
Tackles |
---|
63% (10/16) | 63% (17/27) |
Duels won |
---|
59 | 49 |
Clearances |
---|
34 | 23 |
Interceptions |
---|
10 | 10 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
4 | 2 |
xGOT faced |
---|
1.61 | 0.18 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.39 | -0.82 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 7', Dzwigala A. 🟨,
- 19', 0 - 1, Dzwigala A. ⚽, Pereira Lage M. (A),
- 26', Gocholeishvili G. 🟨,
- 37', Sinani D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 54', Pyrka A. 🟨,
- 56', Sahiti E. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
- 56', Rossing-Lelesiit A. ↓, Dompe J. ↑,
- 59', Pyrka A. ↓, Saliakas M. ↑,
- 60', 0 - 2, Hountondji A. ⚽, Fujita J. (A),
- 64', Poulsen Y. 🟨,
- 69', Hountondji A. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
- 75', Elfadli D. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
- 75', Capaldo N. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
- 77', Gocholeishvili G. 🟨,
- 82', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,
- 82', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
- 82', Dzwigala A. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
Chances of winning
Hamburger SV 31.6% | Draw 31.6% | St. Pauli 36.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hamburger SV's form might have worsened.St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting St. Pauli's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+13.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hamburger SV, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-8.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for St. Pauli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Hamburger SV - St. Pauli Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
3.44 ↑ (2.26) |
3.31 ↓ (3.47) |
2.8 ↓ (3.17) |
-4.9% (4.6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Hamburger SV - St. Pauli?
Users Predictions:
47 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 18 - 38.3%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 13 - 27.7%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 34%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hamburg: 24.4% – 52.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 13 high ROI users predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 3 - 23.1%). St. Pauli (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.25 - St. Pauli (votes: 3 - 100%).
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 3.
- Recent form of Hamburg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- St. Pauli is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Recently, Hamburg has had a series of away games.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in St. Pauli: Ceesay A.
(Foot Injury)
Irvine J.
(Foot Injury)
Jones R.J.
(Shoulder Injury)
Mets K.
(Knee Injury)
Nemeth D.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Hamburg: Glatzel R.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Jatta B.
(Thigh Injury)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:19. (average 1.4:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Hamburger SV won against St. Pauli?
Hamburger SV has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has St. Pauli won against Hamburger SV?
St. Pauli has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Hamburger SV - St. Pauli were as follows:
03.05.2024
Hamburger SV
-
St. Pauli
1:0
01.12.2023
St. Pauli
-
Hamburger SV
2:2
21.04.2023
Hamburger SV
-
St. Pauli
4:3
14.10.2022
St. Pauli
-
Hamburger SV
3:0
Latest results of Hamburger SV
Latest results of St. Pauli
German Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Bayern Munich | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:2 | 7 | 6 |
2 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 5 | 6 |
3 | FC Koln | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 4 | 6 |
4 | Dortmund | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 | 4 |
5 | St. Pauli | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:3 | 2 | 4 |
6 | Wolfsburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 4 |
7 | Augsburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 1 | 3 |
8 | Stuttgart | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 3 |
9 | Hoffenheim | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 |
10 | Union Berlin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:4 | -2 | 3 |
11 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:6 | -4 | 3 |
12 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | -1 | 1 |
13 | Mainz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 1 |
14 | B. Monchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 1 |
15 | Hamburger SV | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 1 |
16 | Werder Bremen | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 |
17 | Heidenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | -4 | 0 |
18 | Freiburg | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:7 | -5 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga
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