Hamburger SV vs St. Pauli: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

29/08/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Volksparkstadion (Hamburg).

: Bundesliga - Round 2
Referee: Dingert C. (Ger)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.48	1.42
Ball Possession
48%	52%
Total shots
5	17
Shots on target
2	6
Big Chances
2	2
Corner Kicks
2	5
Passes
82% (364/443)	82% (391/477)
Yellow Cards
3	3
Red Cards
1	0
Expected Goals (xG)
0.48	1.42
xG on target (xGOT)
0.18	1.61
Total shots
5	17
Shots on target
2	6
Shots off target
2	5
Blocked Shots
1	6
Shots inside the Box
2	11
Shots outside the Box
3	6
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
2	2
Corner Kicks
2	5
Touches in opposition box
10	25
Accurate through passes
2	2
Offsides
1	2
Free Kicks
18	13
Passes
82% (364/443)	82% (391/477)
Long passes
40% (23/58)	48% (29/61)
Passes in final third
58% (55/95)	70% (103/148)
Crosses
20% (2/10)	17% (3/18)
Expected assists (xA)
0.80	0.91
Throw-ins
16	26
Fouls
13	19
Tackles
63% (10/16)	63% (17/27)
Duels won
59	49
Clearances
34	23
Interceptions
10	10
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
4	2
xGOT faced
1.61	0.18
Goals prevented
-0.39	-0.82

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', Dzwigala A. 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Dzwigala A. ⚽, Pereira Lage M. (A),
26', Gocholeishvili G. 🟨,
37', Sinani D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Pyrka A. 🟨,
56', Sahiti E. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
56', Rossing-Lelesiit A. ↓, Dompe J. ↑,
59', Pyrka A. ↓, Saliakas M. ↑,
60', 0 - 2, Hountondji A. ⚽, Fujita J. (A),
64', Poulsen Y. 🟨,
69', Hountondji A. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
75', Elfadli D. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
75', Capaldo N. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
77', Gocholeishvili G. 🟨,
82', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,
82', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
82', Dzwigala A. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Hamburger SV
31.6%

Draw
31.6%

St. Pauli
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

27.5%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

29.3%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hamburger SV's form might have worsened.

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting St. Pauli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hamburger SV, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for St. Pauli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Hamburger SV - St. Pauli Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.44 ↑ (2.26)	3.31 ↓ (3.47)	2.8 ↓ (3.17)	-4.9% (4.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Hamburger SV - St. Pauli?

Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 18 - 38.3%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 13 - 27.7%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 34%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hamburg: 24.4% – 52.2%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 13 high ROI users predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 3 - 23.1%). St. Pauli (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH -0.25 - St. Pauli (votes: 3 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 3.
Recent form of Hamburg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
St. Pauli is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Recently, Hamburg has had a series of away games.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
There will not play in St. Pauli: Ceesay A. (Foot Injury) Irvine J. (Foot Injury) Jones R.J. (Shoulder Injury) Mets K. (Knee Injury) Nemeth D. (Muscle Injury)
There are questionable in Hamburg: Glatzel R. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Jatta B. (Thigh Injury)
In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:19. (average 1.4:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Hamburger SV won against St. Pauli?

Hamburger SV has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has St. Pauli won against Hamburger SV?

St. Pauli has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Hamburger SV - St. Pauli were as follows:

03.05.2024 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 1:0

01.12.2023 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 2:2

21.04.2023 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 4:3

14.10.2022 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 3:0

Latest results of Hamburger SV

24.08.2025 Borussia Mönchengladbach - Hamburger SV 0:0 ✺

16.08.2025 Pirmasens - Hamburger SV 1:2 ✺

09.08.2025 Mallorca - Hamburger SV 2:0 ✺

26.07.2025 Hamburger SV - Lyon 0:4 ✺

19.07.2025 Sturm Graz - Hamburger SV 2:1 ✺

Latest results of St. Pauli

23.08.2025 St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund 3:3 ✺

16.08.2025 Eintracht Norderstedt - St. Pauli 0:1 ✺

09.08.2025 St. Pauli - Verona 1:0 ✺

02.08.2025 Coventry City - St. Pauli 2:2 ✺

26.07.2025 St. Pauli - Nice 2:0 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	18:3	15	12
2	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	9:3	6	10
3	RB Leipzig	4	3	0	1	6:7	-1	9
4	FC Koln	4	2	1	1	9:7	2	7
5	St. Pauli	4	2	1	1	7:6	1	7
6	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	2	0	2	11:9	2	6
7	Freiburg	4	2	0	2	8:8	0	6
8	Stuttgart	4	2	0	2	5:5	0	6
9	Hoffenheim	4	2	0	2	8:10	-2	6
10	Union Berlin	4	2	0	2	8:11	-3	6
11	Bayer Leverkusen	4	1	2	1	8:7	1	5
12	Wolfsburg	4	1	2	1	7:6	1	5
13	Mainz	4	1	1	2	5:4	1	4
14	Werder Bremen	4	1	1	2	8:10	-2	4
15	Hamburger SV	4	1	1	2	2:8	-6	4
16	Augsburg	4	1	0	3	7:10	-3	3
17	B. Monchengladbach	4	0	2	2	1:6	-5	2
18	Heidenheim	4	0	0	4	2:9	-7	0

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

Which TV channels are streaming of Hamburger SV - St. Pauli?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, New World Sport 1
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, HBO Max, TNT Sports
Armenia	Setanta Sports 2
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Brazil	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Sport 4 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, Free, New World TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3, Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	beIN Connect, K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mongolia	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	TVWan
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 3, Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 3, SportKlub 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	beIN Connect, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer app, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball