Result
16/03/2025 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- ECUADOR: Liga Pro - Round 5
- Referee: Cabrera R. (Ecu)
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Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.78 | 1.27 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Goal Attempts |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots off Goal |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 21 | 10 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 21 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 34 |
| Touches in the Opposition Box |
|---|
| 15 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (239/317) | 75% (219/293) |
| Passes in the final third |
|---|
| 54% (43/80) | 61% (54/89) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 9% (2/23) | 43% (6/14) |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 44% (8/18) | 50% (8/16) |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 25 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 13', Carabali F. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Mina A. ↓, Zambrano C. ↑,
- 46', Carcelen Carabali M. A. ↓, Gruezo E. ↑,
- 46', Almagro A. ↓, Vazquez J. ↑,
- 49', Briones R. 🟨,
- 52', Hernandez B. 🟨,
- 60', 0 - 1, Gruezo E. ⚽, Zambrano C. (A),
- 61', Chala J. ↓, Cevallos J. ↑,
- 61', Ledesma A. ↓, Branda V. ↑,
- 69', Briones R. ↓, Rolon C. ↑,
- 72', Olmedo M. ↓, Cela A. ↑,
- 72', Rivera B. ↓, Cifuentes J. ↑,
- 75', Montenegro B. ↓, Porozo S. ↑,
- 82', Hernandez B. ↓, De Jesus B. ↑,
- 90+2', 🟨,
Chances of winning
El Nacional
32.8% | Draw
29% | SD Aucas
38.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that El Nacional's form might have worsened.SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting SD Aucas's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+11.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for El Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-9.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for SD Aucas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
El Nacional - SD Aucas Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.8 ↑
(2.17) |
3.23 ↓
(3.42) |
2.45 ↓
(3.12) |
7.6%
(7.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for El Nacional - SD Aucas?
The most likely score is 1:1.
User prediction is will win! ( of users predict this).
Preview Facts
- A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches El Nacional won 2.
- El Nacional is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
- Recent matches Aucas is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
- El Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
- In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.
- Last 20 head-to-head matches El Nacional won 4 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 23:29 (average 1.2:1.5).
- Including matches at home between the teams El Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12:15 (average 1.2:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against SD Aucas?
El Nacional has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has SD Aucas won against El Nacional?
SD Aucas has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between El Nacional - SD Aucas were as follows:
24.08.2024
El Nacional
-
SD Aucas
0:0
20.03.2024
SD Aucas
-
El Nacional
3:4
05.08.2023
El Nacional
-
SD Aucas
2:2
26.02.2023
SD Aucas
-
El Nacional
0:2
Latest results of El Nacional
Latest results of SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Barcelona SC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 20:13 | 7 | 28 |
| 2 | Ind. del Valle | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 26:12 | 14 | 27 |
| 3 | Aucas | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 19:14 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Orense | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 16:18 | -2 | 20 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 17:8 | 9 | 19 |
| 6 | Dep. Cuenca | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 11:12 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 | Vinotinto | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21:17 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Libertad | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18:17 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | U. Catolica | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 20:15 | 5 | 17 |
| 10 | Mushuc Runa | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 18:21 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Manta | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 17:23 | -6 | 14 |
| 12 | Delfin | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9:18 | -9 | 14 |
| 13 | EL Nacional | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 16:19 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 | Emelec | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8:16 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Macara | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 9:13 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | Tecnico U | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11:20 | -9 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Which TV channels are streaming of El Nacional - SD Aucas?
It is being streamed on various channels, including:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
