São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Brazilian Serie A São Paulo - Vasco da Gama
Result
1:3
12/06/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A Betano - Round 12
  • Referee: Klein R. (Bra)
São Paulo - Vasco da Gama - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.351.81
Ball Possession
51%49%
Total shots
1114
Shots on target
39
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
43
Passes
85% (394/465)85% (383/452)
Yellow Cards
42
Expected Goals (xG)
0.351.81
xG on target (xGOT)
0.063.25
Total shots
1114
Shots on target
39
Shots off target
54
Blocked Shots
31
Shots inside the Box
48
Shots outside the Box
76
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
43
Touches in opposition box
1418
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
1718
Passes
85% (394/465)85% (383/452)
Long passes
44% (24/54)53% (20/38)
Passes in final third
74% (79/107)68% (52/76)
Crosses
16% (3/19)13% (2/15)
Expected assists (xA)
0.740.76
Throw-ins
2417
Fouls
1817
Tackles
72% (13/18)65% (11/17)
Duels won
5759
Clearances
1530
Interceptions
910
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
62
xGOT faced
3.250.06
Goals prevented
0.25-0.64

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 26', 0 - 1, Rayan , Paulo Henrique (A),
  • 33', Luciano 🟨,
  • 38', Robert Arboleda 🟨,
  • 40', 0 - 2, Moreira N. ,
  • 45', Andre Silva 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Pablo Maia , Bobadilla D. ,
  • 46', Diaz E. , Wendell ,
  • 46', Lucca Marques , Dinenno J. ,
  • 59', Joao Victor 🟨,
  • 69', 0 - 3, Vegetti P. , Paulo Henrique (A),
  • 71', Hugo Moura 🟨,
  • 75', Paulo Henrique , Rodriguez J. ,
  • 81', Soares C. , Sabino ,
  • 81', Andre Silva , Ryan Francisco ,
  • 87', Dinenno J. 🟨,
  • 88', Coutinho , Adson ,
  • 88', Vegetti P. , Alex Teixeira ,
  • 88', Tche Tche , Mateus Carvalho ,
  • 90+1', Moreira N. , Augusto L. ,
  • 90+3', 1 - 3, Ryan Francisco , Alisson (A),

Chances of winning


São Paulo
51.9%
Draw
28.9%
Vasco da Gama
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
48.2% 29% 22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1% 29.1% 22.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)
  • Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-3.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+3.6%)
  • São Paulo - Vasco da Gama Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.83
    (1.97)
    3.28
    (3.28)
    4.84
    (4.17)
    5.8%
    (5.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for São Paulo - Vasco da Gama?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (14 of 17 users predict this - 82.35%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 64.23%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 13 and 15).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 3.
    • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • Recently, Vasco has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, São Paulo is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Ferreira (Foot Injury) Igor Vinicius (Back Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Marcos Antonio (Hamstring Injury) Oscar (Thigh Injury) Rodriguinho (Yellow Cards) Ruan Tressoldi (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Vasco: David (Knee Injury) Guilherme Estrella (Knee Injury) Payet D. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 36:20. (average 1.8:1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 24:7. (average 2.4:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Vasco da Gama were as follows:
    16.10.2024 São Paulo - Vasco da Gama 3:0
    22.06.2024 Vasco da Gama - São Paulo 4:1
    07.10.2023 Vasco da Gama - São Paulo 0:0
    20.05.2023 São Paulo - Vasco da Gama 4:2
    Latest results of São Paulo
    31.05.2025 Bahia - São Paulo 2:1
    24.05.2025 São Paulo - Mirassol 0:2
    17.05.2025 São Paulo - Grêmio 2:1
    Latest results of Vasco da Gama
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Cruzeiro16104227:91834
    2Flamengo RJ15103229:62333
    3Palmeiras1492318:12629
    4Bragantino1683519:17227
    5Botafogo RJ1474317:71025
    6Bahia1474317:13425
    7Mirassol1466223:131024
    8Fluminense1462616:17-120
    9Atletico-MG1455416:15120
    10Internacional1555516:19-320
    11Corinthians1655615:19-420
    12Sao Paulo1647515:18-319
    13Ceara1553714:15-118
    14Gremio1445514:20-617
    15Vitoria1637613:17-416
    16Vasco1442815:19-414
    17Santos1542913:19-614
    18Juventude1432910:29-1911
    19Fortaleza1425713:20-711
    20Sport Recife1404107:23-164

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
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          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

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