Botafogo RJ vs São Paulo: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Brazilian Serie A Botafogo RJ - São Paulo
Result
2:2
16/04/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A Betano - Round 4
  • Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)
Botafogo RJ - São Paulo - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.370.99
Ball Possession
57%43%
Total shots
2314
Shots on target
84
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
94
Passes
88% (440/500)85% (340/400)
Yellow Cards
03
Expected Goals (xG)
1.370.99
xG on target (xGOT)
3.301.39
Total shots
2314
Shots on target
84
Shots off target
96
Blocked Shots
64
Shots inside the Box
136
Shots outside the Box
108
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
94
Touches in opposition box
3817
Offsides
12
Free Kicks
411
Passes
88% (440/500)85% (340/400)
Long passes
63% (35/56)54% (33/61)
Passes in final third
77% (136/177)74% (69/93)
Crosses
31% (11/36)30% (3/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.380.82
Fouls
114
Tackles
75% (15/20)67% (8/12)
Duels won
4245
Clearances Total
1741
Interceptions
109
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
26
xGOT faced
1.393.30
Goals prevented
-0.611.30

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 2)
  • 21', 0 - 1, Ferreira ,
  • 24', 1 - 1, Savarino J. , Artur (A),
  • 35', Jonathan Calleri , Andre Silva ,
  • 45+13', 1 - 2, Andre Silva , Ferreira (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 53', Matheus Alves 🟨,
  • 63', Gregore , Patrick de Paula ,
  • 65', Wendell , Diaz E. ,
  • 65', Matheus Alves , Luciano ,
  • 66', Ferreira 🟨,
  • 81', Matheus Martins , Gonzalo Mastriani ,
  • 84', 2 - 2, Igor Jesus , Savarino J. (A),
  • 87', Ferreira , Lucas Ferreira ,
  • 88', Artur , Jeffinho ,
  • 88', Vitinho , Ponte M. ,
  • 88', Ferraresi N. , Rodriguinho ,
  • 90+1', Robert Arboleda 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Botafogo RJ
52.9%
Draw
28%
São Paulo
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
48.5% 26.3% 25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48% 26.6% 25.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)
  • São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and São Paulo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-4.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+6.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that São Paulo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Botafogo RJ - São Paulo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.8
    (1.95)
    3.37
    (3.6)
    4.98
    (3.73)
    5.3%
    (6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Botafogo RJ - São Paulo?
  • Users Predictions: Botafogo RJ will win (18 of 21 users predict this - 85.71%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 70.74%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Botafogo RJ will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Botafogo won 2.
    • Two teams are playing changeable.
    • Botafogo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • In this match Botafogo is a favorite.
    • There will not play in Botafogo: Bastos (Knee Injury) Danilo Barbosa (Pelvis Injury) Marcal (Lacking Match Fitness) Nathan Fernandes (Thigh Injury)
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Inactive) Oscar (Hamstring Injury) Pablo Maia (Inactive) Young (Inactive)
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches Botafogo won 7 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 22:30 (average 1.1:1.5).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Botafogo won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 14:15 (average 1.4:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Botafogo RJ - São Paulo were as follows:
    08.12.2024 Botafogo RJ - São Paulo 2:1
    25.09.2024 São Paulo - Botafogo RJ 1:2
    18.09.2024 Botafogo RJ - São Paulo 0:0
    24.07.2024 São Paulo - Botafogo RJ 2:2
    19.08.2023 São Paulo - Botafogo RJ 0:0
    Latest results of Botafogo RJ
    Latest results of São Paulo
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ20144244:93546
    2Palmeiras19133327:151242
    3Cruzeiro21125434:151941
    4Bahia19106327:171036
    5Botafogo RJ1995526:121432
    6Mirassol1988330:191132
    7Sao Paulo2188526:22432
    8Bragantino2193926:28-230
    9Fluminense1983825:28-327
    10Ceara2075819:19026
    11Corinthians2167822:27-525
    12Atletico-MG1966720:23-324
    13Internacional2066823:28-524
    14Gremio2066819:25-624
    15Santos20631120:31-1121
    16Vasco20541127:29-219
    17Vitoria21310818:32-1419
    18Juventude20531218:41-2318
    19Fortaleza20361119:32-1315
    20Sport Recife19171112:30-1810

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