São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Brazilian Serie A São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro
Result
2:0
24/08/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A Betano - Round 21
  • Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)
São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.640.10
Ball Possession
51%49%
Total shots
105
Shots on target
51
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
51
Passes
86% (403/469)86% (396/462)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
1.640.10
xG on target (xGOT)
2.360.00
Total shots
105
Shots on target
51
Shots off target
42
Blocked Shots
12
Shots inside the Box
81
Shots outside the Box
24
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
51
Touches in opposition box
276
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
1417
Passes
86% (403/469)86% (396/462)
Long passes
38% (13/34)58% (31/53)
Passes in final third
75% (98/130)73% (71/97)
Crosses
38% (6/16)10% (1/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.370.21
Throw-ins
1918
Fouls
2017
Tackles
81% (22/27)52% (12/23)
Duels won
6158
Clearances
1620
Interceptions
911
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
0.002.36
Goals prevented
0.000.36

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 23', 1 - 0, Pablo Maia , Bobadilla D. (A),
  • 37', Everson 🟨,
  • 43', Marcos Antonio , Rodriguinho ,
  • 45+1', Diaz E. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Reinier , Alexsander ,
  • 60', Igor Gomes 🟨,
  • 64', Ferreira , Luciano ,
  • 68', Junior Santos , Biel ,
  • 68', Franco A. , Gustavo Scarpa ,
  • 75', Igor Gomes , Natanael ,
  • 79', Andre Silva , Tapia G. ,
  • 81', 2 - 0, Tapia G. , Soares C. (A),
  • 88', Gabriel Menino , Iseppe M. J. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


São Paulo
52.4%
Draw
28.8%
Atlético Mineiro
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
47.2% 29.1% 23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1% 30.3% 22.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in São Paulo's performance.
  • Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-3.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+4%)
  • São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.82
    (1.99)
    3.27
    (3.23)
    5.02
    (3.98)
    5.7%
    (6.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro?
  • Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (21 of 24 users predict this - 87.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 74.27%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): São Paulo will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 0.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, São Paulo is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Back Injury) Robert Arboleda (Muscle Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Wendell (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Atlético MG: Alonso J. (Red Card) Cadu (Knee Injury) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Cuello (Red Card) Hulk (Yellow Cards) Patrick Silva (Broken tailbone) Renzo Saravia (Muscle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Atlético MG: Alexsander (Injury) Gustavo Scarpa (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 0.9:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.3:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
    06.04.2025 Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo 0:0
    23.11.2024 São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro 2:2
    12.09.2024 Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo 0:0
    28.08.2024 São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro 0:1
    11.07.2024 Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo 2:1
    Latest results of São Paulo
    Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ20144244:93546
    2Palmeiras19133327:151242
    3Cruzeiro21125434:151941
    4Bahia19106327:171036
    5Botafogo RJ1995526:121432
    6Mirassol1988330:191132
    7Sao Paulo2188526:22432
    8Bragantino2193926:28-230
    9Fluminense1983825:28-327
    10Ceara2075819:19026
    11Corinthians2167822:27-525
    12Atletico-MG1966720:23-324
    13Internacional2066823:28-524
    14Gremio2066819:25-624
    15Santos20631120:31-1121
    16Vasco20541127:29-219
    17Vitoria21310818:32-1419
    18Juventude20531218:41-2318
    19Fortaleza20361119:32-1315
    20Sport Recife19171112:30-1810

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

    Which TV channels are streaming of São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
    chinaChinaK-Ball
    ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
    kosovoKosovoArena Premium 1
    mexicoMexicoFanatiz
    portugalPortugalCanal 11
    russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
    serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 1
    united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
    usaUsaFanatiz
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