Alianza Lima vs São Paulo: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Copa Libertadores Alianza Lima - São Paulo
Result
0:2
06/05/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4
Alianza Lima - São Paulo - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.241.02
Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
1013
Shots on target
13
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
43
Passes
81% (336/414)84% (394/467)
Yellow Cards
22
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
0.241.02
xG on target (xGOT)
0.041.16
Total shots
1013
Shots on target
13
Shots off target
68
Blocked Shots
32
Shots inside the Box
38
Shots outside the Box
75
Hit the Woodwork
02
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
43
Touches in opposition box
1216
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
15
Free Kicks
1310
Passes
81% (336/414)84% (394/467)
Long passes
48% (21/44)50% (24/48)
Passes in final third
65% (77/118)73% (74/102)
Crosses
33% (5/15)27% (3/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.740.55
Throw-ins
1411
Fouls
1013
Tackles
64% (9/14)50% (9/18)
Duels won
3850
Clearances
1624
Interceptions
75
Errors leading to shot
02
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
11
xGOT faced
1.160.04
Goals prevented
-0.840.04

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 35', 0 - 1, Andre Silva , Matheus Alves (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Lavandeira Hernandez P. , Cari P. ,
  • 56', Paolo Guerrero , Barcos H. ,
  • 61', Matheus Alves , Lucas Moura ,
  • 69', Garces R. 🟥,
  • 72', Soares C. , Lucas Ferreira ,
  • 78', Castillo J. 🟨,
  • 81', Franco A. 🟨,
  • 82', Ferreira , Luciano ,
  • 82', Marcos Antonio , Bobadilla D. ,
  • 83', Quevedo K. , Delgado J. ,
  • 83', Castillo J. , Lagos R. ,
  • 89', 0 - 2, Andre Silva , Luciano (A),
  • 90+4', Ferraresi N. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Trauco M. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Alianza Lima
26.1%
Draw
32.8%
São Paulo
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
28.9% 32% 39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8% 33.3% 40.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)
  • São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+1.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-0.5%)
  • Alianza Lima - São Paulo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.62
    (3.3)
    2.87
    (2.98)
    2.29
    (2.43)
    6%
    (5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
  • What is the prediction for Alianza Lima - São Paulo?
  • Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). São Paulo will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 35.4%82.2%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): São Paulo will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
    • Alianza Lima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • São Paulo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Alianza Lima: Archimbaud J. (Injury) Cantero A. (Muscle Injury) Enrique G. (Yellow Cards) Zambrano C. (Red Card)
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Henrique Carmo (Inactive) Igor Vinicius (Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Hamstring Injury) Pablo Maia (Ankle Injury) Robert Arboleda (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alianza Lima won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Alianza Lima - São Paulo were as follows:
    10.04.2025 São Paulo - Alianza Lima 2:2
    Latest results of Alianza Lima
    Latest results of São Paulo
    02.05.2025 São Paulo - Fortaleza 0:0
    26.04.2025 Ceará - São Paulo 1:1
    20.04.2025 São Paulo - Santos 2:1
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/8-finals
    1Atl. NacionalSao Paulo1 : 2, 0 : 0
    2Botafogo RJLDU Quito0 : 2, 1 : 0
    3Libertad AsuncionRiver Plate1 : 2, 0 : 0
    4U. de DeportesPalmeiras0 : 0, 0 : 4
    5FortalezaVelez Sarsfield0 : 2, 0 : 0
    6PenarolRacing Club1 : 3, 1 : 0
    7Cerro PortenoEstudiantes L.P.0 : 0, 0 : 1
    8Flamengo RJInternacional2 : 0, 1 : 0

    Quarter-finals
    1Sao PauloLDU Quito
    2River PlatePalmeiras
    3Velez SarsfieldRacing Club
    4Estudiantes L.P.Flamengo RJ
    Which TV channels are streaming of Alianza Lima - São Paulo?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    africaAfricaSporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
    argentinaArgentinaDisney+, FOX Sports 3
    asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
    australiaAustraliabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
    bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
    brazilBrazilClaro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
    bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 4
    canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
    chileChileDisney+
    colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN 2
    croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
    georgiaGeorgiaSilk Universal
    germanyGermanySportdigital+
    greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 3
    indonesiaIndonesiaMola TV
    israelIsraelSport 2
    italyItalyComo TV
    mexicoMexicoDisney+, ESPN 2
    peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
    portugalPortugalSport TV2
    russiaRussiaOkko Sport
    serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 3
    south-americaSouth-americaESPN 5 South, ESPN South, ViX Latin America
    uruguayUruguayDisney+
    usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
    venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
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