Atlético Mineiro vs Santos: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Brazilian Serie A Atlético Mineiro - Santos
Result
1:1
14/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A Betano - Round 23
  • Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)
Atlético Mineiro - Santos - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.311.28
Ball Possession
53%47%
Total shots
1712
Shots on target
55
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
73
Passes
85% (398/467)84% (356/426)
Yellow Cards
23
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.311.28
xG on target (xGOT)
0.801.93
Total shots
1712
Shots on target
55
Shots off target
84
Blocked Shots
43
Shots inside the Box
135
Shots outside the Box
47
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
73
Touches in opposition box
2616
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
1412
Passes
85% (398/467)84% (356/426)
Long passes
36% (16/44)41% (18/44)
Passes in final third
80% (98/123)71% (79/111)
Crosses
26% (7/27)29% (2/7)
Expected assists (xA)
1.230.65
Throw-ins
2123
Fouls
1215
Tackles
71% (20/28)61% (11/18)
Duels won
5946
Clearances
1426
Interceptions
59
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
44
xGOT faced
1.930.80
Goals prevented
0.93-0.20

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 32', Ze Ivaldo 🟨,
  • 45+4', Hulk 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Fausto Vera , Alexsander ,
  • 46', Rony , Igor Gomes ,
  • 55', Ze Ivaldo 🟨,
  • 59', Guilherme , Frias A. ,
  • 59', 1 - 0, Igor Gomes , Gustavo Scarpa (A),
  • 64', Escobar G. 🟨,
  • 68', Gabriel Brazao , Diogenes ,
  • 70', Victor Hugo , Caballero G. ,
  • 75', Igor Gomes 🟨,
  • 77', Gustavo Scarpa , Reinier ,
  • 81', Joao Schmidt , Thaciano ,
  • 81', Neymar , Robson Junior ,
  • 81', Diaz L. , Tiquinho Soares ,
  • 87', 1 - 1, Tiquinho Soares (Pen),
  • 90+4', Cuello , Dudu ,

Chances of winning


Atlético Mineiro
61.8%
Draw
26.4%
Santos
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
51.5% 27.1% 21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7% 30.4% 19.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Mineiro's performance.
  • Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-4.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+7.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Atlético Mineiro - Santos Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.76
    (1.83)
    4.34
    (3.49)
    10.19
    (4.42)
    -10.3%
    (5.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro - Santos?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 3 - 60%). Santos (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).
  • Users Predictions: Atlético Mineiro will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 66.11%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 14 and 16)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 2.
    • Atlético MG is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Santos has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Atlético MG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Atlético MG has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, Atlético MG is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Atlético MG: Alonso J. (Yellow Cards) Cadu (Knee Injury) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Patrick Silva (Broken tailbone) Renzo Saravia (Muscle Injury) Ruan Tressoldi (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Santos: Arao W. (Muscle Injury) Joao Basso (Muscle Injury) Rollheiser B. (Yellow Cards)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:29. (average 1.2:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:4. (average 1.6:0.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Mineiro - Santos were as follows:
    16.04.2025 Santos - Atlético Mineiro 2:0
    27.08.2023 Atlético Mineiro - Santos 2:0
    23.04.2023 Santos - Atlético Mineiro 0:0
    05.10.2022 Santos - Atlético Mineiro 1:2
    Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
    Latest results of Santos
    31.08.2025 Santos - Fluminense 0:0
    24.08.2025 Bahia - Santos 2:0
    17.08.2025 Santos - Vasco da Gama 0:6
    10.08.2025 Cruzeiro - Santos 1:2
    04.08.2025 Santos - Juventude 3:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ23156248:113751
    2Cruzeiro25155539:192050
    3Palmeiras22154336:181849
    4Mirassol23119341:231842
    5Botafogo RJ24117635:181740
    6Bahia23107631:28337
    7Sao Paulo2498727:24335
    8Fluminense2294926:29-331
    9Bragantino24941129:35-631
    10Vasco25861138:35330
    11Corinthians2478924:29-529
    12Gremio2478924:30-629
    13Ceara2377922:23-128
    14Internacional24771029:37-828
    15Santos23751122:32-1026
    16Atletico-MG2267921:26-525
    17Juventude24641420:46-2622
    18Vitoria244101019:35-1622
    19Fortaleza24561324:38-1421
    20Sport Recife23281316:35-1914

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
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          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

    Which TV channels are streaming of Atlético Mineiro - Santos?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
    chinaChinaK-Ball
    ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
    israelIsraelSport 3
    mexicoMexicoFanatiz
    usaUsaFanatiz
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