Roberto Carballes Baena vs Arthur Rinderknech: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

24/08/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY).

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Match Stats


Aces
4	14
Double Faults
6	6
1st Serve Percentage
59%	56%
1st Serve Points Won
76% (65/86)	84% (57/68)
2nd Serve Points Won
48% (29/60)	59% (32/54)
Break Points Saved
77% (10/13)	83% (5/6)
1st Return Points Won
19% (13/68)	26% (22/86)
2nd Return Points Won
41% (22/54)	52% (31/60)
Break Points Converted
17% (1/6)	23% (3/13)
Winners
30	72
Unforced Errors
20	57
Net Points Won
55% (11/20)	76% (41/54)
Service Points Won
64% (93/146)	73% (89/122)
Return Points Won
27% (33/122)	36% (53/146)
Total Points Won
47% (126/268)	53% (142/268)
Last 10 Balls
3	7
Match Points Saved
1	0
Service Games Won
86% (18/21)	95% (20/21)
Return Games Won
5% (1/21)	14% (3/21)
Total Games Won
45% (19/42)	55% (23/42)
Distance Covered (metres)
2769	3090

Chances of winning

Roberto Carballes Baena
38.1%

Arthur Rinderknech
61.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

67.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

69.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roberto Carballes Baena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Roberto Carballes Baena's performance.

Arthur Rinderknech has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arthur Rinderknech might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Roberto Carballes Baena that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Rinderknech than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arthur Rinderknech could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Roberto Carballes Baena - Arthur Rinderknech Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (3)		1.54 ↑ (1.42)	4.8% (3.8%)

What is the prediction for Roberto Carballes Baena - Arthur Rinderknech?

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Carballes Baena will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Rinderknech will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carballes Baena: 35.9% – 97.5%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Carballes Baena (votes: 2 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:3.

Preview Facts

Carballes Baena is ranked ATP: 84. Rinderknech is ranked ATP: 77.
Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.
Carballes Baena may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Rinderknech will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Carballes Baena won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

How many head-to-head matches has Roberto Carballes Baena won against Arthur Rinderknech?

Roberto Carballes Baena has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Arthur Rinderknech won against Roberto Carballes Baena?

Arthur Rinderknech has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Roberto Carballes Baena - Arthur Rinderknech were as follows:

Latest results of Roberto Carballes Baena

09.08.2025 Francis Tiafoe - Roberto Carballes Baena 2:0 ✺

07.08.2025 Roberto Carballes Baena - Hugo Gaston 2:1 ✺

30.07.2025 Roberto Carballes Baena - Taylor Harry Fritz 0:2 ✺

28.07.2025 Roberto Carballes Baena - Camilo Ugo Carabelli Ugo Carabelli C. retired ✺

21.07.2025 Roberto Carballes Baena - Nikoloz Basilashvili 0:2 ✺

Latest results of Arthur Rinderknech

17.08.2025 Hamad Medjedovic - Arthur Rinderknech 2:0 ✺

11.08.2025 Arthur Rinderknech - Felix Aliassime-Auger Rinderknech A. retired ✺

09.08.2025 Casper Ruud - Arthur Rinderknech 1:2 ✺

07.08.2025 Arthur Rinderknech - Nuno Borges 2:0 ✺

28.07.2025 Arthur Rinderknech - Alexis Galarneau 0:2 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Kopriva V.	3 : 0
2	Popyrin A.	Ruusuvuori E.	3 : 0
3	Royer V. (WC)	Bu Y.	3 : 0
4	Fucsovics M.	Shapovalov D. (27)	0 : 3
5	Bublik A. (23)	Cilic M.	3 : 0
6	Sonego L.	Schoolkate T. (WC)	2 : 3
7	Borges N.	Holt B.	3 : 0
8	Moller E.	Paul T. (14)	0 : 3
9	Musetti L. (10)	Mpetshi Perricard G.	3 : 1
10	Halys Q.	Goffin D.	1 : 3
11	Brooksby J.	Vukic A.	3 : 2
12	Passaro F. (Q)	Cobolli F. (24)	2 : 3
13	Diallo G. (31)	Dzumhur D.	3 : 1
14	Munar J.	Faria J. (LL)	3 : 1
15	Bergs Z.	Tseng C. H.	3 : 0
16	Gomez F. A. (Q)	Draper J. (5)	1 : 3
17	Zverev A. (3)	Tabilo A.	3 : 0
18	Bautista-Agut R.	Fearnley J.	1 : 3
19	Monfils G.	Safiullin R.	2 : 3
20	Harris B. (LL)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	0 : 3
21	Humbert U. (22)	Walton A.	1 : 3
22	Kovacevic A.	Wong C. (Q)	0 : 3
23	Duckworth J. (LL)	Boyer T. (WC)	0 : 3
24	Prizmic D. (Q)	Rublev A. (15)	0 : 3
25	Khachanov K. (9)	Basavareddy N. (WC)	3 : 1
26	Dellien H.	Majchrzak K.	1 : 3
27	Riedi L. (Q)	Martinez P.	3 : 0
28	Arnaldi M.	Cerundolo F. (19)	2 : 3
29	Tsitsipas S. (26)	Muller A.	3 : 1
30	Altmaier D.	Medjedovic H.	3 : 2
31	Gaston H.	Mochizuki S. (Q)	0 : 3
32	O'Connell C.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
33	Djokovic N. (7)	Tien L.	3 : 0
34	Svajda Z. (Q)	Piros Z. (Q)	3 : 0
35	Norrie C.	Korda S. (RET.)	2 : 0
36	Comesana F.	Michelsen A. (28)	3 : 1
37	Tiafoe F. (17)	Nishioka Y.	3 : 0
38	Damm M. (Q)	Blanch Dar. (WC)	3 : 0
39	Struff J-L. (Q)	McDonald M.	3 : 1
40	Van De Zandschulp B.	Rune H. (11)	0 : 3
41	Mensik J. (16)	Jarry N.	3 : 0
42	Blanchet U. (Q)	Marozsan F.	3 : 1
43	Fonseca J.	Kecmanovic M.	3 : 0
44	Nardi L.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
45	Nakashima B. (30)	De Jong J. (Q)	3 : 2
46	Kym J. (Q)	Quinn E.	3 : 1
47	Baez S.	Harris L. (Q)	0 : 3
48	Nava E. (WC)	Fritz T. (4)	0 : 3
49	Shelton B. (6)	Buse I. (Q)	3 : 0
50	Carreno-Busta P.	Llamas Ruiz P. (Q)	3 : 0
51	Thompson J.	Moutet C.	3 : 1
52	Mannarino A.	Griekspoor T. (29)	3 : 0
53	Lehecka J. (20)	Coric B.	3 : 1
54	Ugo Carabelli C.	Etcheverry T. M.	0 : 3
55	Galan D. E. (Alt)	Collignon R.	0 : 3
56	Ofner S.	Ruud C. (12)	0 : 3
57	Medvedev D. (13)	Bonzi B.	2 : 3
58	Navone M.	Giron M.	2 : 3
59	Carballes Baena R.	Rinderknech A.	1 : 3
60	Shevchenko A.	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	0 : 3
61	Darderi L. (32)	Hijikata R.	3 : 0
62	Dostanic S. (WC)	Spizzirri E. (WC)	0 : 3
63	Bellucci M.	Shang J. (RET.)	2 : 1
64	Opelka R.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/32-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Popyrin A.	3 : 0
2	Royer V.	Shapovalov D. (27)	1 : 3
3	Bublik A. (23)	Schoolkate T.	3 : 0
4	Borges N.	Paul T. (14)	2 : 3
5	Musetti L. (10)	Goffin D.	3 : 0
6	Brooksby J.	Cobolli F. (24)	2 : 3
7	Diallo G. (31)	Munar J.	0 : 3
8	Bergs Z. (WO.)	Draper J. (5)
9	Zverev A. (3)	Fearnley J.	3 : 0
10	Safiullin R.	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	0 : 3
11	Walton A.	Wong C.	1 : 3
12	Boyer T.	Rublev A. (15)	1 : 3
13	Khachanov K. (9)	Majchrzak K.	2 : 3
14	Riedi L.	Cerundolo F. (19)	3 : 2
15	Tsitsipas S. (26)	Altmaier D.	2 : 3
16	Mochizuki S.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
17	Djokovic N. (7)	Svajda Z.	3 : 1
18	Norrie C.	Comesana F.	3 : 1
19	Tiafoe F. (17)	Damm M.	3 : 1
20	Struff J-L.	Rune H. (11)	3 : 2
21	Mensik J. (16)	Blanchet U.	2 : 3
22	Fonseca J.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
23	Nakashima B. (30)	Kym J.	2 : 3
24	Harris L.	Fritz T. (4)	1 : 3
25	Shelton B. (6)	Carreno-Busta P.	3 : 0
26	Thompson J.	Mannarino A.	1 : 3
27	Lehecka J. (20)	Etcheverry T. M.	3 : 1
28	Collignon R.	Ruud C. (12)	3 : 2
29	Bonzi B.	Giron M.	3 : 2
30	Rinderknech A.	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	3 : 2
31	Darderi L. (32)	Spizzirri E.	3 : 1
32	Bellucci M.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/16-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Shapovalov D. (27)	3 : 1
2	Bublik A. (23)	Paul T. (14)	3 : 2
3	Musetti L. (10)	Cobolli F. (RET.) (24)	2 : 0
4	Munar J.	Bergs Z.	3 : 0
5	Zverev A. (3)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	1 : 3
6	Wong C.	Rublev A. (15)	2 : 3
7	Majchrzak K. (RET.)	Riedi L.	0 : 0
8	Altmaier D. (RET.)	De Minaur A. (8)	1 : 2
9	Djokovic N. (7)	Norrie C.	3 : 1
10	Tiafoe F. (17)	Struff J-L.	0 : 3
11	Blanchet U.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
12	Kym J.	Fritz T. (4)	1 : 3
13	Shelton B. (RET.) (6)	Mannarino A.	2 : 2
14	Lehecka J. (20)	Collignon R.	3 : 0
15	Bonzi B.	Rinderknech A.	1 : 3
16	Darderi L. (32)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/8-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Bublik A. (23)	3 : 0
2	Musetti L. (10)	Munar J.	3 : 0
3	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	Rublev A. (15)	3 : 0
4	Riedi L.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
5	Djokovic N. (7)	Struff J-L.	3 : 0
6	Machac T. (21)	Fritz T. (4)	0 : 3
7	Mannarino A.	Lehecka J. (20)	1 : 3
8	Rinderknech A.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Quarter-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Musetti L. (10)
2	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	De Minaur A. (8)
3	Djokovic N. (7)	Fritz T. (4)
4	Lehecka J. (20)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Semi-finals

1	TBD #1	TBD #2
2	TBD #3	Alcaraz C. (2)

Final

1

TBD #1

TBD #2

Which TV channels are streaming of Roberto Carballes Baena - Arthur Rinderknech?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max