Reilly Opelka vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

25/08/2025 at 21:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York, NY).

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Match Stats


Aces
14	4
Double Faults
9	6
1st Serve Percentage
61%	69%
1st Serve Points Won
75% (48/64)	86% (50/58)
2nd Serve Points Won
41% (17/41)	65% (17/26)
Break Points Saved
73% (8/11)	100% (3/3)
1st Return Points Won
17% (10/58)	36% (23/64)
2nd Return Points Won
35% (9/26)	59% (24/41)
Break Points Converted
0% (0/3)	27% (3/11)
Winners
33	23
Unforced Errors
32	17
Net Points Won
58% (14/24)	77% (10/13)
Service Points Won
62% (65/105)	80% (67/84)
Return Points Won
20% (17/84)	38% (40/105)
Total Points Won
43% (82/189)	57% (107/189)
Last 10 Balls
2	8
Match Points Saved
0	0
Service Games Won
81% (13/16)	100% (16/16)
Return Games Won
0% (0/16)	19% (3/16)
Total Games Won
41% (13/32)	59% (19/32)
Distance Covered (metres)
1574	1722

Chances of winning

Reilly Opelka
8.5%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
91.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

8.7%

91.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Reilly Opelka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Reilly Opelka - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.97 ↓ (11)		1.05 (1.05)	4.5% (4.3%)

What is the prediction for Reilly Opelka - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Opelka will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Opelka: 29% – 96%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:3.

Preview Facts

Opelka is ranked ATP: 73. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 2.
Opelka has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Alcaraz Garfia is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Alcaraz Garfia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the undeniable favorite.
In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

How many head-to-head matches has Reilly Opelka won against Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?

Reilly Opelka has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Carlos Alcaraz Garfia won against Reilly Opelka?

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Reilly Opelka - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia were as follows:

Latest results of Reilly Opelka

12.08.2025 Reilly Opelka - Francisco Comesana 1:2 ✺

10.08.2025 Alex De Minaur - Reilly Opelka 0:2 ✺

08.08.2025 Hugo Dellien - Reilly Opelka 0:2 ✺

31.07.2025 Learner Tien - Reilly Opelka 2:0 ✺

29.07.2025 Reilly Opelka - Tomas Machac 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

18.08.2025 Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Sinner J. retired ✺

16.08.2025 Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:2 ✺

15.08.2025 Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1:2 ✺

13.08.2025 Luca Nardi - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:2 ✺

12.08.2025 Hamad Medjedovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:2 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Kopriva V.	3 : 0
2	Popyrin A.	Ruusuvuori E.	3 : 0
3	Royer V. (WC)	Bu Y.	3 : 0
4	Fucsovics M.	Shapovalov D. (27)	0 : 3
5	Bublik A. (23)	Cilic M.	3 : 0
6	Sonego L.	Schoolkate T. (WC)	2 : 3
7	Borges N.	Holt B.	3 : 0
8	Moller E.	Paul T. (14)	0 : 3
9	Musetti L. (10)	Mpetshi Perricard G.	3 : 1
10	Halys Q.	Goffin D.	1 : 3
11	Brooksby J.	Vukic A.	3 : 2
12	Passaro F. (Q)	Cobolli F. (24)	2 : 3
13	Diallo G. (31)	Dzumhur D.	3 : 1
14	Munar J.	Faria J. (LL)	3 : 1
15	Bergs Z.	Tseng C. H.	3 : 0
16	Gomez F. A. (Q)	Draper J. (5)	1 : 3
17	Zverev A. (3)	Tabilo A.	3 : 0
18	Bautista-Agut R.	Fearnley J.	1 : 3
19	Monfils G.	Safiullin R.	2 : 3
20	Harris B. (LL)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	0 : 3
21	Humbert U. (22)	Walton A.	1 : 3
22	Kovacevic A.	Wong C. (Q)	0 : 3
23	Duckworth J. (LL)	Boyer T. (WC)	0 : 3
24	Prizmic D. (Q)	Rublev A. (15)	0 : 3
25	Khachanov K. (9)	Basavareddy N. (WC)	3 : 1
26	Dellien H.	Majchrzak K.	1 : 3
27	Riedi L. (Q)	Martinez P.	3 : 0
28	Arnaldi M.	Cerundolo F. (19)	2 : 3
29	Tsitsipas S. (26)	Muller A.	3 : 1
30	Altmaier D.	Medjedovic H.	3 : 2
31	Gaston H.	Mochizuki S. (Q)	0 : 3
32	O'Connell C.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
33	Djokovic N. (7)	Tien L.	3 : 0
34	Svajda Z. (Q)	Piros Z. (Q)	3 : 0
35	Norrie C.	Korda S. (RET.)	2 : 0
36	Comesana F.	Michelsen A. (28)	3 : 1
37	Tiafoe F. (17)	Nishioka Y.	3 : 0
38	Damm M. (Q)	Blanch Dar. (WC)	3 : 0
39	Struff J-L. (Q)	McDonald M.	3 : 1
40	Van De Zandschulp B.	Rune H. (11)	0 : 3
41	Mensik J. (16)	Jarry N.	3 : 0
42	Blanchet U. (Q)	Marozsan F.	3 : 1
43	Fonseca J.	Kecmanovic M.	3 : 0
44	Nardi L.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
45	Nakashima B. (30)	De Jong J. (Q)	3 : 2
46	Kym J. (Q)	Quinn E.	3 : 1
47	Baez S.	Harris L. (Q)	0 : 3
48	Nava E. (WC)	Fritz T. (4)	0 : 3
49	Shelton B. (6)	Buse I. (Q)	3 : 0
50	Carreno-Busta P.	Llamas Ruiz P. (Q)	3 : 0
51	Thompson J.	Moutet C.	3 : 1
52	Mannarino A.	Griekspoor T. (29)	3 : 0
53	Lehecka J. (20)	Coric B.	3 : 1
54	Ugo Carabelli C.	Etcheverry T. M.	0 : 3
55	Galan D. E. (Alt)	Collignon R.	0 : 3
56	Ofner S.	Ruud C. (12)	0 : 3
57	Medvedev D. (13)	Bonzi B.	2 : 3
58	Navone M.	Giron M.	2 : 3
59	Carballes Baena R.	Rinderknech A.	1 : 3
60	Shevchenko A.	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	0 : 3
61	Darderi L. (32)	Hijikata R.	3 : 0
62	Dostanic S. (WC)	Spizzirri E. (WC)	0 : 3
63	Bellucci M.	Shang J. (RET.)	2 : 1
64	Opelka R.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/32-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Popyrin A.	3 : 0
2	Royer V.	Shapovalov D. (27)	1 : 3
3	Bublik A. (23)	Schoolkate T.	3 : 0
4	Borges N.	Paul T. (14)	2 : 3
5	Musetti L. (10)	Goffin D.	3 : 0
6	Brooksby J.	Cobolli F. (24)	2 : 3
7	Diallo G. (31)	Munar J.	0 : 3
8	Bergs Z. (WO.)	Draper J. (5)
9	Zverev A. (3)	Fearnley J.	3 : 0
10	Safiullin R.	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	0 : 3
11	Walton A.	Wong C.	1 : 3
12	Boyer T.	Rublev A. (15)	1 : 3
13	Khachanov K. (9)	Majchrzak K.	2 : 3
14	Riedi L.	Cerundolo F. (19)	3 : 2
15	Tsitsipas S. (26)	Altmaier D.	2 : 3
16	Mochizuki S.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
17	Djokovic N. (7)	Svajda Z.	3 : 1
18	Norrie C.	Comesana F.	3 : 1
19	Tiafoe F. (17)	Damm M.	3 : 1
20	Struff J-L.	Rune H. (11)	3 : 2
21	Mensik J. (16)	Blanchet U.	2 : 3
22	Fonseca J.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
23	Nakashima B. (30)	Kym J.	2 : 3
24	Harris L.	Fritz T. (4)	1 : 3
25	Shelton B. (6)	Carreno-Busta P.	3 : 0
26	Thompson J.	Mannarino A.	1 : 3
27	Lehecka J. (20)	Etcheverry T. M.	3 : 1
28	Collignon R.	Ruud C. (12)	3 : 2
29	Bonzi B.	Giron M.	3 : 2
30	Rinderknech A.	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	3 : 2
31	Darderi L. (32)	Spizzirri E.	3 : 1
32	Bellucci M.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/16-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Shapovalov D. (27)	3 : 1
2	Bublik A. (23)	Paul T. (14)	3 : 2
3	Musetti L. (10)	Cobolli F. (RET.) (24)	2 : 0
4	Munar J.	Bergs Z.	3 : 0
5	Zverev A. (3)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	1 : 3
6	Wong C.	Rublev A. (15)	2 : 3
7	Majchrzak K. (RET.)	Riedi L.	0 : 0
8	Altmaier D. (RET.)	De Minaur A. (8)	1 : 2
9	Djokovic N. (7)	Norrie C.	3 : 1
10	Tiafoe F. (17)	Struff J-L.	0 : 3
11	Blanchet U.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
12	Kym J.	Fritz T. (4)	1 : 3
13	Shelton B. (RET.) (6)	Mannarino A.	2 : 2
14	Lehecka J. (20)	Collignon R.	3 : 0
15	Bonzi B.	Rinderknech A.	1 : 3
16	Darderi L. (32)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/8-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Bublik A. (23)	3 : 0
2	Musetti L. (10)	Munar J.	3 : 0
3	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	Rublev A. (15)	3 : 0
4	Riedi L.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
5	Djokovic N. (7)	Struff J-L.	3 : 0
6	Machac T. (21)	Fritz T. (4)	0 : 3
7	Mannarino A.	Lehecka J. (20)	1 : 3
8	Rinderknech A.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Quarter-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Musetti L. (10)	3 : 0
2	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	De Minaur A. (8)	3 : 1
3	Djokovic N. (7)	Fritz T. (4)	3 : 1
4	Lehecka J. (20)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Semi-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	3 : 1
2	Djokovic N. (7)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Final

1

Sinner J. (1)

Alcaraz C. (2)

1 : 3

Which TV channels are streaming of Reilly Opelka - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Albania	Eurosport 1
Armenia	Eurosport 1
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Eurosport 1
Azerbaijan	Eurosport 1
Belarus	Eurosport 1
Belgium	Eurosport 1, HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Bulgaria	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Croatia	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Czech-republic	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Denmark	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Estonia	Eurosport 1
Finland	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
France	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Georgia	Eurosport 1
Germany	Eurosport 1
Greece	Eurosport 1
Hungary	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Iceland	Eurosport 1
Israel	Eurosport 1
Italy	Eurosport 1
Kosovo	Eurosport 1
Latvia	Eurosport 1
Lithuania	Eurosport 1
Luxembourg	Eurosport 1
Malta	Eurosport 1
Moldova	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Montenegro	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Netherlands	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
North-macedonia	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Norway	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Poland	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Portugal	Eurosport 1
Romania	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Serbia	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Slovakia	Eurosport 1
Slovenia	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Spain	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Sweden	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Switzerland	Eurosport 1
Turkey	Eurosport 1
Ukraine	Eurosport 1
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports+