RB Leipzig vs Köln: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer German Bundesliga
Soccer German Bundesliga RB Leipzig - Köln
Result
3:1
20/09/2025 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Bundesliga - Round 4
  • Referee: Brand B. (Ger)
RB Leipzig - Köln - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.441.86
Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
1813
Shots on target
82
Big Chances
72
Corner Kicks
95
Passes
87% (365/420)87% (412/474)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
3.441.86
xG on target (xGOT)
4.520.83
Total shots
1813
Shots on target
82
Shots off target
75
Blocked Shots
36
Shots inside the Box
148
Shots outside the Box
45
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
72
Corner Kicks
95
Touches in opposition box
4430
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
30
Free Kicks
810
Passes
87% (365/420)87% (412/474)
Long passes
45% (18/40)58% (33/57)
Passes in final third
67% (70/104)73% (93/128)
Crosses
47% (8/17)26% (6/23)
Expected assists (xA)
1.871.92
Throw-ins
1821
Fouls
108
Tackles
58% (7/12)67% (8/12)
Duels won
3138
Clearances
3430
Interceptions
78
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
05
xGOT faced
0.834.52
Goals prevented
-0.171.52

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 1)
  • 13', 1 - 0, Ouedraogo A. ⚽, Romulo Cardoso (A),
  • 23', 1 - 1, Thielmann J. ⚽, Martel E. (A),
  • 44', 2 - 1, Romulo Cardoso ⚽, Baumgartner C. (A),
  • 45+3', Martel E. 🟨,
  • 45+4', 3 - 1, Raum D. ⚽,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Bulter M. ↓, El Mala S. ↑,
  • 58', Ouedraogo A. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
  • 59', Martel E. ↓, Huseinbasic D. ↑,
  • 59', Waldschmidt L. ↓, Ache R. ↑,
  • 59', Thielmann J. ↓, Maina L. ↑,
  • 70', Baku R. 🟨,
  • 73', Sebulonsen S. ↓, Kainz F. ↑,
  • 80', Baku R. ↓, Harder C. ↑,
  • 80', Bakayoko J. ↓, Nedeljkovic K. ↑,
  • 90+2', Diomande Y. ↓, Maksimovic A. ↑,
  • 90+2', Baumgartner C. ↓, Kampl K. ↑,

Chances of winning


RB Leipzig
50.3%		Draw
24%		Köln
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
58.6% 22% 19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2% 24.1% 17.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that RB Leipzig's form might have worsened.
  • Köln has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Köln's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+13.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for RB Leipzig, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Köln than the current prediction. (-8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Köln, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    RB Leipzig - Köln Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.92 ↑
    (1.63)    		 4.01 ↓
    (4.33)    		 3.74 ↓
    (4.9)    		 3.9%
    (5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
    •
    What is the prediction for RB Leipzig - Köln?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.75 - RB Leipzig (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (48 of 58 users predict this - 82.76%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 73.04% – 92.48%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): RB Leipzig will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 3.
    • In recent matches, RB Leipzig has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Köln is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Recently, RB Leipzig has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, RB Leipzig is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in RB Leipzig: Finkgrafe M. (Knee Injury) Haidara A. (Knee Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Klostermann L. (Calf Injury) Nusa A. (Forearm injury) Schlager X. (Calf Injury)
    • There will not play in Köln: Kilian L. (Knee Injury) van den Berg R. (Shoulder Injury)
    • In the last 14 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 33:15. (average 2.4:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:7. (average 2.7:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between RB Leipzig - Köln were as follows:
    15.03.2024 Köln - RB Leipzig 1:5
    28.10.2023 RB Leipzig - Köln 6:0
    04.02.2023 Köln - RB Leipzig 0:0
    Latest results of RB Leipzig
    13.09.2025 Mainz - RB Leipzig 0:1 ✺
    30.08.2025 RB Leipzig - Heidenheim 2:0 ✺
    22.08.2025 Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig 6:0 ✺
    16.08.2025 Sandhausen - RB Leipzig 2:4 ✺
    09.08.2025 Lens - RB Leipzig 2:1
    Latest results of Köln
    13.09.2025 Wolfsburg - Köln 3:3 ✺
    31.08.2025 Köln - Freiburg 4:1 ✺
    24.08.2025 Mainz - Köln 0:1 ✺
    17.08.2025 Jahn Regensburg - Köln 1:2 ✺
    09.08.2025 Köln - Atalanta 4:0
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich550022:31915
    2Dortmund541011:3813
    3RB Leipzig54017:7012
    4Eintracht Frankfurt530217:1349
    5Stuttgart53027:619
    6Bayer Leverkusen522110:828
    7FC Koln521210:917
    8Freiburg52129:907
    9St. Pauli52128:807
    10Hoffenheim52129:11-27
    11Union Berlin52128:11-37
    12Wolfsburg51227:705
    13Hamburger SV51222:8-65
    14Mainz51135:6-14
    15Werder Bremen51138:14-64
    16Augsburg51048:12-43
    17Heidenheim51044:10-63
    18B. Monchengladbach50235:12-72

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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