Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Spanish LaLiga
Soccer Spanish LaLiga Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo
Result
1:1
21/09/2025 at 08:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : LaLiga - Round 5
  • Referee: Garcia V. (Esp)
Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.990.81
Ball Possession
59%41%
Total shots
159
Shots on target
55
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
57
Passes
86% (460/532)80% (297/372)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
0.990.81
xG on target (xGOT)
1.181.61
Total shots
159
Shots on target
55
Shots off target
81
Blocked Shots
23
Shots inside the Box
86
Shots outside the Box
73
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
57
Touches in opposition box
2421
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
108
Passes
86% (460/532)80% (297/372)
Long passes
53% (33/62)40% (24/60)
Passes in final third
76% (139/182)67% (69/103)
Crosses
7% (2/30)11% (2/18)
Expected assists (xA)
1.390.50
Throw-ins
1826
Fouls
810
Tackles
45% (5/11)46% (6/13)
Duels won
3634
Clearances
2228
Interceptions
910
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
44
xGOT faced
1.611.18
Goals prevented
0.610.18

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 40', Palazon I. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 49', 0 - 1, Iglesias B. ⚽, Alvarez H. (A),
  • 55', Rueda J. 🟨,
  • 60', Rueda J. ↓, Mingueza O. ↑,
  • 60', Alvarez H. ↓, Duran P. ↑,
  • 60', Pacha ↓, Chavarria P. ↑,
  • 60', Camello S. ↓, Alemao ↑,
  • 65', 1 - 1, de Frutos J. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
  • 68', Palazon I. ↓, Balliu I. ↑,
  • 71', Sotelo H. ↓, Moriba I. ↑,
  • 79', Ristic M. ↓, Starfelt C. ↑,
  • 79', Zaragoza B. ↓, Jutgla F. ↑,
  • 90+1', de Frutos J. ↓, Becerra S. ↑,
  • 90+1', Diaz P. ↓, Lopez U. ↑,

Chances of winning


Rayo Vallecano
46.3%		Draw
28%		Celta de Vigo
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
38.8% 29% 32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38% 29.6% 32.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rayo Vallecano's performance.
  • Celta de Vigo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Celta de Vigo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-8.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rayo Vallecano that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (+7.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Celta de Vigo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.11 ↓
    (2.45)    		 3.43 ↑
    (3.28)    		 3.7 ↑
    (2.96)    		 3.7%
    (5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    •
    What is the prediction for Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo?
  • Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 19 - 65.5%). Celta will win (votes: 5 - 17.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 17.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Rayo Vallecano: 48.2% – 82.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Rayo Vallecano will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 2.
    • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
    • Recently, Celta has had a series of home games.
    • Rayo Vallecano might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Luiz Felipe (Muscle Injury) Mumin A. (Knee Injury) Nteka R. (Contusion)
    • There will not play in Celta: Aidoo J. (Coach's decision) Cervi F. (Coach's decision)
    • There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Mendy N. (Lacking Match Fitness) Perez F. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Celta: Alonso M. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:22. (average 1.4:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Rayo Vallecano won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:5. (average 1.8:0.6).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo were as follows:
    18.05.2025 Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano 1:2
    10.01.2025 Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo 2:1
    31.03.2024 Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano 0:0
    11.12.2023 Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo 0:0
    11.03.2023 Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano 3:0
    Latest results of Rayo Vallecano
    14.09.2025 Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano 2:0 ✺
    31.08.2025 Rayo Vallecano - Barcelona 1:1 ✺
    28.08.2025 Rayo Vallecano - Neman Grodno 4:0 ✺
    25.08.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Vallecano 1:0 ✺
    21.08.2025 Neman Grodno - Rayo Vallecano 0:1 ✺
    Latest results of Celta de Vigo
    14.09.2025 Celta de Vigo - Girona 1:1 ✺
    31.08.2025 Celta de Vigo - Villarreal 1:1 ✺
    27.08.2025 Celta de Vigo - Betis 1:1 ✺
    23.08.2025 Mallorca - Celta de Vigo 1:1 ✺
    17.08.2025 Celta de Vigo - Getafe 0:2 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Real Madrid870119:91021
    2Barcelona861122:91319
    3Villarreal851214:8616
    4Betis843113:8515
    5Atl. Madrid834115:10513
    6Sevilla841315:11413
    7Elche834111:9213
    8Ath Bilbao84139:9013
    9Espanyol833211:11012
    10Alaves83239:8111
    11Getafe83239:11-211
    12Osasuna83147:8-110
    13Levante822413:14-18
    14Rayo Vallecano82248:10-28
    15Valencia822410:14-48
    16Celta Vigo80627:10-36
    17R. Oviedo82064:14-106
    18Girona81345:17-126
    19Real Sociedad81257:12-55
    20Mallorca81257:13-65

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
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