Arouca vs Porto: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Liga Portugal Arouca - Porto
Result
0:4
29/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Liga Portugal - Round 7
  • Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)
Arouca - Porto - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.722.93
Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
1316
Shots on target
35
Big Chances
04
Corner Kicks
58
Passes
79% (277/350)84% (327/389)
Yellow Cards
53
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
0.722.93
xG on target (xGOT)
0.973.13
Total shots
1316
Shots on target
35
Shots off target
96
Blocked Shots
15
Shots inside the Box
711
Shots outside the Box
65
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
04
Corner Kicks
58
Touches in opposition box
1923
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
813
Passes
79% (277/350)84% (327/389)
Long passes
27% (14/51)55% (24/44)
Passes in final third
59% (44/74)58% (46/79)
Crosses
25% (5/20)23% (5/22)
Expected assists (xA)
0.670.88
Throw-ins
1215
Fouls
138
Tackles
63% (5/8)62% (8/13)
Duels won
3743
Clearances
2022
Interceptions
57
Errors leading to shot
20
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
23
xGOT faced
3.130.97
Goals prevented
-0.870.97

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 3', Trezza A. 🟨,
  • 6', Fernandes M. 🟨,
  • 12', 0 - 1, Samu , Froholdt V. (A),
  • 33', Popovic B. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 3)
  • 46', Samu , Gul D. ,
  • 48', Fernandes M. 🟨,
  • 51', Veiga G. , Rosario P. ,
  • 51', 0 - 2, Gul D. , Pepê (A),
  • 56', Trezza A. , Mansilla B. ,
  • 60', 0 - 3, Moura F. , Sainz B. (A),
  • 63', Gul D. 🟨,
  • 64', Gozalbez P. 🟨,
  • 65', Gozalbez P. , Puche ,
  • 65', Djouahra N. , Nandin D. ,
  • 69', Moura F. , Zaidu ,
  • 69', Pepê , Costa A. ,
  • 69', Sainz B. , Prpic D. ,
  • 69', Simao D. 🟨,
  • 74', Tiago Esgaio 🟨,
  • 79', Barbero I. , Jansonas R. ,
  • 79', Simao D. , van Ee E. ,
  • 85', 0 - 4, Zaidu , Costa A. (A),

Chances of winning


Arouca
9.4%
Draw
16%
Porto
74.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
12.6% 20% 67.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.1% 19.3% 69.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)
  • Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Porto's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-4.8%)
  • Arouca - Porto Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    10.16
    (7.38)
    5.86
    (4.65)
    1.28
    (1.38)
    5.3%
    (7.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
  • What is the prediction for Arouca - Porto?
  • Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 23 - 100%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 100%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Porto will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 1.
    • In recent matches, Arouca has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Porto is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Porto is the undisputed favorite.
    • There will not play in Arouca: Flores M. (Inactive) Fontan J. (Red Card)
    • There will not play in Porto: Perez N. (Injury) de Jong L. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Arouca: Sola A. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Porto: Zaidu (Injury)
    • In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 14 matches, and goals 10:48. (average 0.6:2.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 5:22. (average 0.6:2.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Arouca - Porto were as follows:
    01.03.2025 Arouca - Porto 0:2
    29.09.2024 Porto - Arouca 4:0
    12.02.2024 Arouca - Porto 3:2
    03.09.2023 Porto - Arouca 1:1
    08.05.2023 Arouca - Porto 0:1
    Latest results of Arouca
    20.09.2025 Nacional - Arouca 1:2
    14.09.2025 Arouca - Casa Pia 0:2
    23.08.2025 Arouca - Rio Ave 3:3
    17.08.2025 Sporting Lisbon - Arouca 6:0
    Latest results of Porto
    25.09.2025 Red Bull Salzburg - Porto 0:1
    19.09.2025 Rio Ave - Porto 0:3
    13.09.2025 Porto - Nacional 1:0
    30.08.2025 Sporting Lisbon - Porto 1:2
    24.08.2025 Porto - Casa Pia 4:0
    Liga Portugal Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1FC Porto770019:11821
    2Sporting CP760119:41518
    3Benfica752013:4917
    4Gil Vicente851210:4616
    5Moreirense850312:11115
    6Famalicao73317:3412
    7Alverca831411:12-110
    8Nacional83149:12-310
    9Braga723211:749
    10Santa Clara72235:8-38
    11Vitoria Guimaraes72237:11-48
    12Casa Pia82248:13-58
    13Arouca72239:18-98
    14Estrela81436:8-27
    15Estoril813410:13-36
    16Rio Ave70528:13-55
    17Tondela71244:11-75
    18AFS80175:20-151

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Liga Portugal (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2

    Which TV channels are streaming of Arouca - Porto?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    africaAfricaZAP
    brazilBrazilDisney+
    bulgariaBulgariaRing, Voyo
    cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
    denmarkDenmarkBold+
    franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
    georgiaGeorgiaSilk Sport 1, Silk Universal
    germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
    greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 3
    hungaryHungarySport 1
    israelIsraelSport 3
    italyItalyDAZN Italia
    kazakhstanKazakhstanSport+
    kosovoKosovoArena Premium 4
    kuwaitKuwaitKTV Sport
    lithuaniaLithuaniaSport 1
    netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport 4
    polandPolandEleven Sports 2
    portugalPortugalSport TV1
    serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 4
    slovakiaSlovakiaArena sport 1
    south-americaSouth-americaGol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
    surinameSurinameSCCN
    switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
    turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
    usaUsaFanatiz
    venezuelaVenezuelaInter
    worldWorldTriller TV+
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