Penedense vs Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Brazilian Serie D Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense
Result
0:1
13/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie D - Round 12
Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Ball Possession
43%57%
Total shots
28
Shots on target
14
Corner Kicks
49
Total shots
28
Shots on target
14
Shots off target
14
Corner Kicks
49
Goalkeeper Saves
31

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 28', 0 - 1, Thiago Papel ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)

Chances of winning


Penedense
14.2%
Draw
23.5%
Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense
62.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
14.5% 25.3% 60.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.2% 24.8% 61.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Penedense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
  • Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)
  • The ML Model estimate for Penedense aligns with the current prediction.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense than the current prediction. (-1%)
  • Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    6.38
    (6.25)
    3.85
    (3.6)
    1.45
    (1.51)
    10.6%
    (10%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Penedense (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +1 - Penedense (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).
    • ASA is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    • Recent form of Penedense has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • ASA has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • ASA may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, ASA is the obvious favorite.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Penedense won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.4:0.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Penedense won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense were as follows:
    03.05.2025 Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Penedense 1:0
    05.04.2025 Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense 0:0
    22.01.2025 Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense 0:0
    19.01.2025 Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Penedense 1:1
    18.02.2024 Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense 1:2
    Latest results of Penedense
    06.07.2025 Lagarto - Penedense 4:0
    28.06.2025 Sergipe - Penedense 2:0
    15.06.2025 Penedense - Juazeirense 0:0
    08.06.2025 Jequié - Penedense 0:0
    01.06.2025 Penedense - Jequié 2:4
    Brazilian Serie D Table
    2025

    Group 1
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Manauara ✔ 1375126:91726
    2Tuna Luso ✔ 1373322:101224
    3Manaus1355320:17320
    4Aguia De Maraba1354421:13819
    5Trem1353523:23018
    6Independencia1353516:18-218
    7GAS1342716:23-714
    8Humaita13111112:43-314


    Group 2
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1AE Altos ✔ 1375122:13926
    2Imperatriz ✔ 1363414:13121
    3Sampaio Correa ✔ 1355316:10620
    4Iguatu1352614:14017
    5Maranhao1337317:12516
    6Tocantinopolis1336411:16-515
    7Parnahyba1335514:19-514
    8Maracana1323811:22-119


    Group 3
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Central SC ✔ 1374215:7825
    2America RN ✔ 1373319:91024
    3Santa Cruz ✔ 1373317:10724
    4Horizonte1352614:15-117
    5Ferroviario1352615:19-417
    6Santa Cruz de Natal1342711:19-814
    7Treze PB134187:17-1013
    8Sousa1333710:12-212


    Group 4
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1ASA ✔ 1384124:81628
    2Lagarto ✔ 1372420:15523
    3Juazeirense ✔ 1364312:12022
    4Sergipe1354415:10519
    5Jequie1344515:15016
    6Uniao Carmolandense1344513:16-316
    7Barcelona132569:19-1011
    8SC Penedense130584:17-135


    Group 5
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Aparecidense ✔ 1392230:111929
    2Ceilandia ✔ 1374221:14725
    3Luverdense ✔ 1364313:12122
    4Mixto ✔ 1356219:13621
    5Capital1345413:10317
    6Goiania1324712:21-910
    7Goianesia1315711:20-98
    8Porto Velho131489:27-187


    Group 6
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Portuguesa ✔ 1383219:13627
    2Rio Branco ES ✔ 1372416:9723
    3Marica1354414:11319
    4Agua Santa1353518:18018
    5Pouso Alegre1352613:16-317
    6Porto Vitoria1344513:12116
    7Nova Iguacu1335512:15-314
    8Boavista132389:20-119


    Group 7
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Inter de Limeira ✔ 1393121:61530
    2Goiatuba ✔ 1354420:16419
    3Cianorte ✔ 1354420:17319
    4Cascavel1346313:14-118
    5Uberlandia1344520:18216
    6Operario MS1335513:20-714
    7Monte Azul1325611:17-611
    8Itabirito1317510:20-1010


    Group 8
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Barra FC ✔ 1382320:91126
    2EC Sao Jose ✔ 1374220:101025
    3Joinville ✔ 1363410:9121
    4Marcilio Dias ✔ 1355316:14220
    5Guarany de Bage134459:13-416
    6Brasil de Pelotas1341810:12-213
    7Sao Luiz1340910:20-1012
    8Azuriz133376:14-812

          Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Manauara is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Tuna Luso is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    AE Altos is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Imperatriz is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Sampaio Correa is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Central SC is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    America RN is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Santa Cruz is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    ASA is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Lagarto is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Juazeirense is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Aparecidense is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Ceilandia is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Luverdense is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Mixto is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Portuguesa is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Rio Branco ES is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Inter de Limeira is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Goiatuba is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Cianorte is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Barra FC is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    EC Sao Jose is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Joinville is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Marcilio Dias is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
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