Paysandu vs Athletic Club: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Brazilian Serie B Paysandu - Athletic Club
Result
1:1
28/07/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie B Superbet - Round 19
  • Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)
Paysandu - Athletic Club - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.721.34
Ball Possession
46%54%
Total shots
1615
Shots on target
66
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
66
Passes
79% (263/332)84% (329/394)
Yellow Cards
43
Expected Goals (xG)
0.721.34
xG on target (xGOT)
0.582.08
Total shots
1615
Shots on target
66
Shots off target
46
Blocked Shots
63
Shots inside the Box
711
Shots outside the Box
94
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
66
Touches in opposition box
2025
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1811
Passes
79% (263/332)84% (329/394)
Long passes
45% (24/53)50% (21/42)
Passes in final third
58% (49/84)69% (73/106)
Crosses
22% (6/27)18% (3/17)
Expected assists (xA)
0.420.48
Throw-ins
1920
Fouls
1118
Tackles
78% (14/18)67% (8/12)
Duels won
5652
Clearances
3132
Interceptions
57
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
55
xGOT faced
2.080.58
Goals prevented
1.080.58

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 22', Welinton Torrao 🟨,
  • 24', 0 - 1, Welinton Torrao , Marcelo Ajul (A),
  • 26', 1 - 1, Rodrigo Gelado (Own goal),
  • 29', Bryan Borges 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Bryan Borges , Edilson ,
  • 49', Ronaldo Henrique 🟨,
  • 58', Fabricio Isidoro 🟨,
  • 62', Max , Alason Carioca ,
  • 71', Marlon Douglas 🟨,
  • 72', Marlon Douglas , Vinicius Faria ,
  • 77', Welinton Torrao , Ezequiel ,
  • 78', Anderson Leite , Ramon Martinez ,
  • 79', Denner , Marcelinho ,
  • 87', David Braga , Neto Costa ,
  • 88', Fabricio Isidoro , Martinez F. ,
  • 89', Ronaldo Henrique , Andre Lima ,
  • 90', Vinicius Faria 🟨,
  • 90+2', Neto Costa 🟨,

Chances of winning


Paysandu
40.1%
Draw
30.7%
Athletic Club
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
51.6% 26.4% 22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2% 25.6% 21.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paysandu's form might have worsened.
  • Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Athletic Club's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+13.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paysandu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-7.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Athletic Club, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Paysandu - Athletic Club Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.32
    (1.79)
    3.04
    (3.5)
    3.22
    (4.2)
    7%
    (8.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Paysandu - Athletic Club?
  • Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Athletic will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 60%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.2%84.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Athletic (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 14).
    • At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
    • Athletic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Paysandu might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Paysandu: Leandro Vilela (Yellow Cards) Novillo J. (Red Card) Rossi (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Athletic: Edson Miranda (Inactive) Lincoln (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Paysandu: Delvalle P. (Ankle Injury) Dudu Vieira (Inactive) Edinho (Knee Injury) Luan Freitas (Inactive) Quintana Y. (Injury) Thiago Heleno (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Athletic: Da Cruz A. (Injury)
    • Recently, the teams have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Paysandu
    23.07.2025 Amazonas - Paysandu 1:1
    19.07.2025 Coritiba - Paysandu 2:5
    05.07.2025 Avaí - Paysandu 0:0
    30.06.2025 Paysandu - Ferroviária 2:1
    Latest results of Athletic Club
    22.07.2025 Athletic Club - Coritiba 1:1
    14.07.2025 Athletic Club - Avaí 4:0
    29.06.2025 Athletic Club - Remo 1:2
    Brazilian Serie B Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Goias20115426:17938
    2Coritiba20115422:14838
    3Novorizontino1997323:16734
    4Chapecoense-SC1993725:18730
    5Remo2079422:19330
    6Criciuma2085723:18529
    7Cuiaba1984722:22028
    8Avai1977526:20628
    9Vila Nova FC2083919:20-127
    10Operario-PR2075822:20226
    11CRB1974820:18225
    12Athletico-PR1974824:26-225
    13Athletic Club19721022:26-423
    14Ferroviaria2058720:22-223
    15Atletico GO1958618:20-223
    16America MG20631121:28-721
    17Volta Redonda1956814:21-721
    18Botafogo SP2056914:28-1421
    19Paysandu PA1948718:21-320
    20Amazonas2048820:27-720

          Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
          Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )

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