Palmeiras vs Fortaleza: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Brazilian Serie A Palmeiras - Fortaleza
Result
4:1
20/09/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A Betano - Round 24
Palmeiras - Fortaleza - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.381.07
Ball Possession
66%34%
Total shots
238
Shots on target
95
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
112
Passes
87% (398/460)69% (167/243)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
2.381.07
xG on target (xGOT)
2.571.32
Total shots
238
Shots on target
95
Shots off target
80
Blocked Shots
63
Shots inside the Box
166
Shots outside the Box
72
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
112
Touches in opposition box
2815
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
23
Free Kicks
1511
Passes
87% (398/460)69% (167/243)
Long passes
48% (25/52)30% (14/47)
Passes in final third
71% (86/121)44% (24/55)
Crosses
40% (10/25)11% (1/9)
Expected assists (xA)
1.080.24
Throw-ins
1911
Fouls
1115
Tackles
50% (2/4)61% (11/18)
Duels won
5047
Clearances
1513
Interceptions
47
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
45
xGOT faced
1.322.57
Goals prevented
0.32-1.43

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 10', 1 - 0, Raphael Veiga (Pen),
  • 23', 1 - 1, Lucas Crispim ,
  • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
  • 57', 2 - 1, Sosa R. , Micael (A),
  • 59', Lucas Crispim , Rodrigo ,
  • 59', Lucero J. , Deyverson ,
  • 70', Allan , Lucas Evangelista ,
  • 70', Mauricio , Lopez J. ,
  • 71', Raphael Veiga , Vitor Roque ,
  • 74', Yago Pikachu , Marinho ,
  • 74', Breno Lopes , Pochettino T. ,
  • 74', Torres F. , Pereira A. ,
  • 75', Sosa R. , Felipe Anderson ,
  • 80', Micael 🟨,
  • 82', 3 - 1, Pereira A. , Felipe Anderson (A),
  • 85', Pereira M. , Bareiro A. ,
  • 90', 4 - 1, Pereira A. , Jefte (A),
  • 90+1', Britez E. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Palmeiras
71.5%
Draw
18.6%
Fortaleza
9.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
66% 21.4% 12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69% 20.5% 12.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palmeiras's performance.
  • Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+2.2%)
  • Palmeiras - Fortaleza Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.35
    (1.43)
    5.38
    (4.4)
    10.22
    (7.45)
    2.3%
    (6.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Fortaleza?
  • Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 68.4%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 2.
    • Palmeiras is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Fortaleza is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Palmeiras is the clear favorite.
    • There will not play in Palmeiras: Paulinho (Leg Injury)
    • There will not play in Fortaleza: Benevenuto (Inactive) Kuscevic B. (Hamstring Injury) Moises (Thigh Injury) Tinga (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fortaleza: Brenno (Finger Injury) Herrera J. (Knee Injury) Lucas Sasha (Calf Injury) Yago Pikachu (Injury)
    • We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.
    • In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:16. (average 1.7:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 21:6. (average 3:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Fortaleza were as follows:
    20.04.2025 Fortaleza - Palmeiras 1:2
    26.10.2024 Palmeiras - Fortaleza 2:2
    26.06.2024 Fortaleza - Palmeiras 3:0
    26.11.2023 Fortaleza - Palmeiras 2:2
    22.07.2023 Palmeiras - Fortaleza 3:1
    Latest results of Palmeiras
    Latest results of Fortaleza
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ23156248:113751
    2Cruzeiro24155439:172250
    3Palmeiras22154336:181849
    4Mirassol23119341:231842
    5Botafogo RJ24117635:181740
    6Bahia23107631:28337
    7Sao Paulo2498727:24335
    8Fluminense2294926:29-331
    9Bragantino24941129:35-631
    10Corinthians2478924:29-529
    11Gremio2478924:30-629
    12Ceara2377922:23-128
    13Vasco24761136:35127
    14Internacional23761028:36-827
    15Santos23751122:32-1026
    16Atletico-MG2267921:26-525
    17Vitoria244101019:35-1622
    18Juventude23631419:45-2621
    19Fortaleza23461323:38-1518
    20Sport Recife22281216:34-1814

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

    Which TV channels are streaming of Palmeiras - Fortaleza?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
    chinaChinaK-Ball
    ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
    mexicoMexicoDisney+, ESPN 2, Fanatiz
    portugalPortugalCanal 11
    russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
    usaUsaFanatiz
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