Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

12/05/2026 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio El Sadar (Pamplona).

: LaLiga - Round 36
Referee: Guzman J. (Esp)

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
2.23	1.64
Ball possession
58%	42%
Total shots
23	5
Shots on target
5	4
Big chances
4	3
Corner kicks
8	4
Passes
87% (415/477)	80% (287/358)
Yellow cards
6	6
Red cards
0	1
Expected goals (xG)
2.23	1.64
xG on target (xGOT)
1.32	2.25
Total shots
23	5
Shots on target
5	4
Shots off target
14	1
Blocked shots
4	0
Shots inside the box
18	4
Shots outside the box
5	1
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Headed goals
0	1
Big chances
4	3
Corner kicks
8	4
Touches in opposition box
47	15
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
0	2
Free kicks
12	15
Passes
87% (415/477)	80% (287/358)
Long passes
67% (33/49)	47% (25/53)
Passes in final third
80% (140/176)	66% (52/79)
Crosses
36% (18/50)	8% (1/12)
Expected assists (xA)
1.67	0.72
Throw ins
21	13
Fouls
15	12
Tackles
64% (7/11)	53% (8/15)
Duels won
40	51
Clearances
9	36
Interceptions
10	6
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
2	4
xGOT faced
2.25	1.32
Goals prevented
0.25	0.32

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', Galan J. 🟨,
15', 0 - 1, Lookman A. (Penalty Awarded),
18', Mendoza R. ↓, Le Normand R. ↑,
30', Garcia R. 🟨,
37', Moro R. ↓, Barja K. ↑,
45+9', Budimir A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Almada T. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
52', Llorente M. 🟨,
57', Koke 🟨,
57', Barja K. 🟨,
59', Pubill M. 🟨,
60', Garcia R. ↓,
60', Galan J. ↓, Bretones A. ↑,
71', 0 - 2, Sorloth A. ⚽, Llorente M. (A),
72', Torro L. ↓, Oroz A. ↑,
72', Gomez M. ↓, Osambela A. ↑,
79', Llorente M. 🟨,
82', Lookman A. ↓, Lenglet C. ↑,
83', Simeone D. 🟨,
85', Le Normand R. 🟨,
85', Catena A. 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 2, Barja K. ⚽, Garcia R. (A),
90+2', Boyomo F. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Osasuna
36.1%

Draw
27.2%

Atlético Madrid
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

26.9%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

27.2%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osasuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Osasuna - Atlético Madrid Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.62)	3.53 ↓ (3.53)	2.61 ↑ (2.57)	4.2% (5.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Osasuna - Atlético Madrid?

Users Predictions: 49 users predict this event. Osasuna will win (votes: 11 - 22.4%). Atlético will win (votes: 27 - 55.1%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 22.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 41.2% – 69%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Atlético (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
Atlético is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 2.
Recent form of Osasuna has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Atlético has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Osasuna may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
There will not play in Osasuna: Herrera S. (Red Card) Munoz V. (Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Atlético: Alvarez J. (Ankle Injury) Baena A. (Yellow Cards) Barrios P. (Muscle Injury) Cardoso J. (Contusion) Gimenez J. M. (Injury) Gonzalez N. (Muscle Injury) Molina N. (Muscle Injury) Simeone G. (Hip Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 13:38. (average 0.7:1.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Osasuna won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 6:19. (average 0.6:1.9).

How many head-to-head matches has Osasuna won against Atlético Madrid?

Osasuna has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Madrid won against Osasuna?

Atlético Madrid has won 5 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Osasuna - Atlético Madrid were as follows:

18.10.2025 Atlético Madrid - Osasuna 1:0

15.05.2025 Osasuna - Atlético Madrid 2:0

12.01.2025 Atlético Madrid - Osasuna 1:0

19.05.2024 Atlético Madrid - Osasuna 1:4

28.09.2023 Osasuna - Atlético Madrid 0:2

Latest results of Osasuna

08.05.2026 Levante - Osasuna 3:2 ✺

02.05.2026 Osasuna - Barcelona 1:2 ✺

26.04.2026 Osasuna - Sevilla 2:1 ✺

21.04.2026 Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna 1:0 ✺

12.04.2026 Osasuna - Betis 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Atlético Madrid

09.05.2026 Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo 0:1 ✺

05.05.2026 Arsenal - Atlético Madrid 1:0 ✺

02.05.2026 Valencia - Atlético Madrid 0:2 ✺

29.04.2026 Atlético Madrid - Arsenal 1:1 ✺

25.04.2026 Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 3:2 ✺

Spanish LaLiga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Barcelona	38	31	1	6	95:36	59	94
2	Real Madrid	38	27	5	6	77:35	42	86
3	Villarreal	38	22	6	10	72:46	26	72
4	Atl. Madrid	38	21	6	11	62:44	18	69
5	Betis	38	15	15	8	59:48	11	60
6	Celta Vigo	38	14	12	12	53:48	5	54
7	Getafe	38	15	6	17	32:38	-6	51
8	Rayo Vallecano	38	12	14	12	41:44	-3	50
9	Valencia	38	13	10	15	46:55	-9	49
10	Real Sociedad	38	11	13	14	59:61	-2	46
11	Espanyol	38	12	10	16	43:55	-12	46
12	Ath Bilbao	38	13	6	19	43:58	-15	45
13	Sevilla	38	12	7	19	46:60	-14	43
14	Alaves	38	11	10	17	44:56	-12	43
15	Elche	38	10	13	15	49:57	-8	43
16	Levante	38	11	9	18	47:61	-14	42
17	Osasuna	38	11	9	18	44:50	-6	42
18	Mallorca	38	11	9	18	47:57	-10	42
19	Girona	38	9	14	15	39:55	-16	41
20	Oviedo	38	6	11	21	26:60	-34	29

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ LaLiga2

Which TV channels are streaming of Osasuna - Atlético Madrid?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Angola	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611, DSports 1
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Belarus 5
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611
Europe	Go3 Sport Open Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga, Supersport Maximo 1
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, Dsports 1311, DSports 310
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter
Vietnam	ON Football, SCTV 15, SCTV Online