Millonarios vs Once Caldas: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Colombian Primera A Millonarios - Once Caldas
Result
2:2
11/06/2025 at 21:20 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Primera A - Apertura - Quadrangular - Round 4
Millonarios - Once Caldas - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.950.28
Ball Possession
54%46%
Total shots
2110
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
47
Passes
82% (323/393)77% (249/325)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
1.950.28
xG on target (xGOT)
1.120.33
Total shots
2110
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
103
Blocked Shots
54
Shots inside the Box
121
Shots outside the Box
99
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
47
Touches in opposition box
289
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
119
Passes
82% (323/393)77% (249/325)
Long passes
35% (13/37)28% (16/58)
Passes in final third
76% (103/136)59% (71/121)
Crosses
31% (5/16)6% (1/18)
Expected assists (xA)
2.090.25
Throw-ins
2120
Fouls
911
Tackles
92% (11/12)80% (8/10)
Duels won
3328
Clearances
1313
Interceptions
138
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
14
xGOT faced
0.331.12
Goals prevented
-1.67-0.88

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 8', 0 - 1, Barrios M. , Moreno D. (A),
  • 27', 0 - 2, Garcia Castillo A. , Zuleta M. (A),
  • 38', Garcia M. , Diaz J. ,
  • 45+4', Victoria Palacios D. S. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 46', Victoria Palacios D. S. , Vega S. ,
  • 46', Marimon L. , Falcao R. ,
  • 46', Cordoba Mosquera J. E. , Valencia J. ,
  • 48', 1 - 2, Falcao R. , Valencia J. (A),
  • 51', Malagon J. , Cardona J. ,
  • 56', Zuleta M. 🟨,
  • 61', 2 - 2, Valencia J. , Giraldo N. (A),
  • 75', Catano D. , Giordana S. ,
  • 76', Rojas I. , Beltran E. ,
  • 76', Barrios M. , Zapata Ramirez J. A. ,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/2rvm7uh8

Chances of winning


Millonarios
58.5%
Draw
25.3%
Once Caldas
16.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
53% 27.5% 19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7% 26.6% 18.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Millonarios has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Millonarios's performance.
  • Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (-3.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (+2.6%)
  • Millonarios - Once Caldas Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.61
    (1.76)
    3.65
    (3.38)
    5.64
    (4.77)
    7.4%
    (7.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Millonarios - Once Caldas?
  • Users Predictions: Millonarios will win (16 of 16 users predict this - 100%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 100%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Millonarios will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 2 and 4)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Millonarios won 0.
    • Millonarios is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Once Caldas has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Once Caldas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Millonarios is seen as the favorite.
    • We predict that Millonarios will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Millonarios won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:23. (average 1.3:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Millonarios won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:14. (average 1.8:1.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Millonarios - Once Caldas were as follows:
    08.06.2025 Once Caldas - Millonarios 0:0
    11.05.2025 Once Caldas - Millonarios 2:2
    05.03.2025 Once Caldas - Millonarios 1:0
    08.09.2024 Once Caldas - Millonarios 1:1
    27.02.2024 Millonarios - Once Caldas 0:2
    Latest results of Millonarios
    Latest results of Once Caldas
    Draw
    Apertura - Play Offs

    Final
    1Santa FeInd. Medellin2 : 1, 0 : 0
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