Olympique Marseille vs Lorient: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer French Ligue 1 Olympique Marseille - Lorient
Result
4:0
12/09/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Ligue 1 - Round 4
  • Referee: Leonard T. (Fra)
Olympique Marseille - Lorient - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.130.14
Ball Possession
72%28%
Total shots
154
Shots on target
81
Big Chances
50
Corner Kicks
100
Passes
93% (743/798)84% (258/306)
Yellow Cards
31
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
2.130.14
xG on target (xGOT)
1.900.01
Total shots
154
Shots on target
81
Shots off target
21
Blocked Shots
52
Shots inside the Box
103
Shots outside the Box
51
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
50
Corner Kicks
100
Touches in opposition box
385
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
516
Passes
93% (743/798)84% (258/306)
Long passes
75% (15/20)46% (16/35)
Passes in final third
87% (279/319)68% (23/34)
Crosses
41% (9/22)50% (2/4)
Expected assists (xA)
2.430.10
Throw-ins
128
Fouls
185
Tackles
43% (6/14)75% (9/12)
Duels won
4540
Clearances
221
Interceptions
66
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
14
xGOT faced
0.011.90
Goals prevented
0.01-2.10

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 0)
  • 10', Yongwa D. 🟥,
  • 13', 1 - 0, Greenwood M. (Pen),
  • 14', Cadiou N. , Kouassi A. ,
  • 20', 2 - 0, Pavard B. , Greenwood M. (A),
  • 26', Pavard B. 🟨,
  • 33', 3 - 0, Gomes A. ,
  • 44', Gouiri A. , O'Riley M. ,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 53', Gomes A. 🟨,
  • 61', Medina F. , Emerson ,
  • 61', Kondogbia G. , Hojbjerg P. ,
  • 61', Weah T. , Paixao I. ,
  • 62', Karim D. , Le Bris T. ,
  • 62', Soumano S. , Bamba M. ,
  • 62', Makengo J. , Avom A. ,
  • 71', Faye A. 🟨,
  • 74', Mvuka Mugisha J. , Tosin A. ,
  • 78', Pavard B. , Vermeeren A. ,
  • 87', Paixao I. 🟨,
  • 90+3', 4 - 0, Aguerd N. , Vermeeren A. (A),

Chances of winning


Olympique Marseille
79.6%
Draw
11.3%
Lorient
9.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
69.4% 18% 12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.9% 17.1% 12%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Olympique Marseille's performance.
  • Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (-6.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Olympique Marseille that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
  • Olympique Marseille - Lorient Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.29
    (1.37)
    9.76
    (5.3)
    11.92
    (7.52)
    -4%
    (5.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
  • What is the prediction for Olympique Marseille - Lorient?
  • Users Predictions: 71 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 63 - 88.7%). Lorient will win (votes: 3 - 4.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 81.3%96.1%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 10 high ROI users predict this event. Marseille (votes: 7 - 70%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 4.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • In this match, Marseille is the undeniable favorite.
    • There will not play in Marseille: Egan-Riley C. (Red Card)
    • There will not play in Lorient: Adjei N. (Ankle Injury) Dieng B. (Coach's decision) Fadiga B. (Ankle Injury) Katseris P. (Thigh Injury) Pagis P. (Calf Injury) Sanusi T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Toure I. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 38:21. (average 2:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:14. (average 2.2:1.6).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Olympique Marseille - Lorient were as follows:
    12.05.2024 Olympique Marseille - Lorient 3:1
    10.12.2023 Lorient - Olympique Marseille 2:4
    09.04.2023 Lorient - Olympique Marseille 0:0
    14.01.2023 Olympique Marseille - Lorient 3:1
    Latest results of Olympique Marseille
    Latest results of Lorient
    30.08.2025 Lorient - Lille 1:7
    24.08.2025 Lorient - Rennes 4:0
    17.08.2025 Auxerre - Lorient 1:0
    09.08.2025 Angers - Lorient 1:0
    02.08.2025 Swansea City - Lorient 1:3
    French Ligue 1 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1PSG440010:3712
    2Monaco540113:7612
    3Lyon54017:3412
    4Strasbourg54018:5312
    5Lille531113:8510
    6Lens53028:539
    7Rennes52217:8-18
    8Marseille42029:456
    9Toulouse52037:9-26
    10Auxerre52034:6-26
    11Paris FC52039:12-36
    12Nice52036:9-36
    13Angers51223:4-15
    14Brest51139:11-24
    15Le Havre51136:8-24
    16Nantes51133:5-24
    17Lorient51136:13-74
    18Metz50145:13-81

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
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          Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
          Relegation ~ Ligue 2

    Which TV channels are streaming of Olympique Marseille - Lorient?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 4
    armeniaArmeniaSetanta Sports 2
    asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
    austriaAustriaDAZN, Sky Go Austria
    azerbaijanAzerbaijanSetanta Sports 2
    belgiumBelgiumDAZN 1, Play Sports 1
    bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 4
    bulgariaBulgariaNova Sport
    canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
    chinaChinaMigu, ZhiBo8
    croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
    cyprusCyprusCablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
    czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 1, Oneplay
    denmarkDenmarkViaplay
    europeEuropeSetanta Sports 2 Baltic
    finlandFinlandViaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
    franceFranceAmazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
    georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 2
    germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
    hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, Now Player
    italyItalySky Sport 256
    japanJapanDAZN Japan
    kazakhstanKazakhstanSetanta Sports 2
    kosovoKosovoArena Premium 4
    kyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanSetanta Sports 2
    mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
    moldovaMoldovaSetanta Sports 2
    netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
    north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean
    norwayNorwayViaplay
    peruPeruDisney+
    polandPolandEleven Sports 2
    portugalPortugalSport TV3
    russiaRussiaOkko Sport
    serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 4
    slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
    sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 4
    south-americaSouth-americaESPN 4 South
    south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
    swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Fotbool
    switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
    tajikistanTajikistanSetanta Sports 2
    turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
    turkmenistanTurkmenistanSetanta Sports 2
    united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass
    uruguayUruguayDisney+
    usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
    uzbekistanUzbekistanSetanta Sports 2
    venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
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