Newport County vs Millwall: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer English League Cup Newport County - Millwall
Result
0:1
12/08/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : EFL Cup - 1/64-finals
  • Referee: Oldham S. (Eng)
Newport County - Millwall - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.561.93
Ball Possession
38%62%
Total shots
1420
Shots on target
27
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
27
Passes
75% (232/310)79% (399/503)
Yellow Cards
02
Expected Goals (xG)
1.561.93
xG on target (xGOT)
0.961.40
Total shots
1420
Shots on target
27
Shots off target
56
Blocked Shots
77
Shots inside the Box
816
Shots outside the Box
64
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
27
Touches in opposition box
1838
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
30
Free Kicks
119
Passes
75% (232/310)79% (399/503)
Long passes
34% (22/65)53% (46/86)
Passes in final third
43% (29/67)65% (121/186)
Crosses
8% (1/12)39% (13/33)
Expected assists (xA)
0.371.76
Throw-ins
3220
Fouls
911
Tackles
53% (8/15)87% (20/23)
Duels won
4376
Clearances
5026
Interceptions
67
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
62
xGOT faced
1.400.96
Goals prevented
0.400.96

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 16', Leonard R. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 56', Antwi C. , Jenkins L. ,
  • 60', 0 - 1, Leonard R. ,
  • 64', Coburn J. , Nisbet K. ,
  • 64', Sturge Z. , Harding W. ,
  • 64', Bangura-Williams R. , Kelly D. ,
  • 65', Baker-Richardson C. , Reindorf M. ,
  • 74', Luongo M. 🟨,
  • 75', Ogunneye H. , Spellman M. ,
  • 75', Whitmore K. , Brennan C. ,
  • 87', Langstaff M. , Matthews A. ,
  • 90+6', Emakhu A. , Kendall S. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Newport County
12.3%
Draw
20.3%
Millwall
67.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
13.4% 21.8% 64.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.1% 21.2% 66.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Newport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)
  • Millwall has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (-1%)
  • Newport County - Millwall Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    7.71
    (6.97)
    4.63
    (4.29)
    1.4
    (1.44)
    6.1%
    (7.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Newport County - Millwall?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Millwall will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Millwall: 64.6%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Newport is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Millwall is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.
    • In this match, Millwall is the obvious favorite.
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Newport won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.
    Latest results of Newport County
    Latest results of Millwall
    09.08.2025 Norwich City - Millwall 1:2
    02.08.2025 Estoril Praia - Millwall 0:3
    29.07.2025 Sutton United - Millwall 2:6
    26.07.2025 Bromley - Millwall 1:2
    22.07.2025 AFC Wimbledon - Millwall 0:3
    Draw
    Main

    1/64-finals
    1BirminghamSheffield Utd2 : 1
    2BlackpoolPort Vale0 : 1
    4ByeArsenal
    5SwanseaCrawley3 : 1
    6PlymouthQPR3 : 2
    8ByeNottingham
    9TranmereBurton1 : 2
    10HarrogateLincoln1 : 3
    12ByeChelsea
    13TottenhamBye
    15AccringtonPeterborough2 : 1
    16MiddlesbroughDoncaster0 : 4
    17BournemouthBye
    18ByeBrentford
    20ByeAston Villa
    21SunderlandBye
    22HuddersfieldLeicester3 : 2
    24ByeManchester City
    25LiverpoolBye
    27WatfordNorwich1 : 2
    28NorthamptonSouthampton0 : 1
    29NewcastleBye
    31StokeWalsall1 : 0
    32BlackburnBradford City1 : 2
    33BoltonSheffield Wed3 : 4
    34ByeLeeds
    35GrimsbyShrewsbury3 : 1
    36ByeManchester Utd
    37WolvesBye
    38ByeWest Ham
    39EvertonBye
    40ChesterfieldMansfield0 : 2
    41Crystal PalaceBye
    43NewportMillwall0 : 1
    44CoventryLuton1 : 0
    45BurnleyBye
    46West BromDerby1 : 2
    47CardiffSwindon2 : 1
    48CheltenhamExeter2 : 0
    49BarrowPreston0 : 1
    50WrexhamHull4 : 3
    51PortsmouthReading1 : 2
    52GillinghamAFC Wimbledon1 : 2
    53WiganNotts Co1 : 0
    54Stockport CountyCrewe3 : 1
    55BromleyIpswich2 : 1
    56Leyton OrientWycombe0 : 1
    57BarnsleyFleetwood3 : 2
    58SalfordRotherham0 : 1
    59Oxford UtdColchester1 : 0
    60ByeBrighton
    61FulhamBye
    62Bristol CityMK Dons2 : 0
    63Bristol RoversCambridge Utd0 : 2
    64CharltonStevenage3 : 1

    1/32-finals
    1BirminghamPort Vale0 : 1
    2ByeArsenal
    3SwanseaPlymouth2 : 1
    4ByeNottingham
    5BurtonLincoln0 : 1
    6ByeChelsea
    7TottenhamBye
    8AccringtonDoncaster0 : 2
    9BournemouthBrentford0 : 2
    10ByeAston Villa
    11SunderlandHuddersfield1 : 2
    12ByeManchester City
    13LiverpoolBye
    14NorwichSouthampton0 : 3
    15NewcastleBye
    16StokeBradford City0 : 3
    17Sheffield WedLeeds2 : 1
    18GrimsbyManchester Utd3 : 2
    19WolvesWest Ham3 : 2
    20EvertonMansfield2 : 0
    21Crystal PalaceBye
    22MillwallCoventry2 : 1
    23BurnleyDerby2 : 1
    24CardiffCheltenham3 : 0
    25PrestonWrexham2 : 3
    26ReadingAFC Wimbledon2 : 1
    27WiganStockport County1 : 0
    28BromleyWycombe1 : 2
    29BarnsleyRotherham2 : 1
    30Oxford UtdBrighton0 : 6
    31FulhamBristol City2 : 0
    32Cambridge UtdCharlton3 : 1

    1/16-finals
    1Port ValeArsenal
    2SwanseaNottingham
    3LincolnChelsea
    4TottenhamDoncaster
    5BrentfordAston Villa
    6HuddersfieldManchester City
    7LiverpoolSouthampton
    8NewcastleBradford City
    9Sheffield WedGrimsby
    10WolvesEverton
    11Crystal PalaceMillwall
    12BurnleyCardiff
    13WrexhamReading
    14WiganWycombe
    15BarnsleyBrighton
    16FulhamCambridge Utd
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