Hailey Baptiste vs Naomi Osaka: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Tennis WTA US Open Hailey Baptiste - Naomi Osaka
28/08/2025 at 13:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • WTA - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/32-finals
Hailey Baptiste - Naomi Osaka - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Aces
24
Double Faults
91
1st Serve Percentage
50%61%
1st Serve Points Won
67% (18/27)70% (21/30)
2nd Serve Points Won
19% (5/27)63% (12/19)
Break Points Saved
38% (3/8)67% (2/3)
Average 1st Serve Speed
171 km/h170 km/h
Average 2nd Serve Speed
142 km/h127 km/h
1st Return Points Won
30% (9/30)52% (14/27)
2nd Return Points Won
37% (7/19)81% (22/27)
Break Points Converted
33% (1/3)63% (5/8)
Winners
1413
Unforced Errors
2513
Net Points Won
67% (8/12)60% (3/5)
Service Points Won
44% (23/52)67% (32/48)
Return Points Won
33% (16/48)56% (29/52)
Total Points Won
39% (39/100)61% (61/100)
Last 10 Balls
37
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
38% (3/8)88% (7/8)
Return Games Won
13% (1/8)63% (5/8)
Total Games Won
25% (4/16)75% (12/16)
Distance Covered (metres)
978849

Chances of winning


Hailey Baptiste
20.1%
Naomi Osaka
79.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
31.9% 68.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31% 69%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Hailey Baptiste has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hailey Baptiste's form might have worsened.
  • Naomi Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Naomi Osaka's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hailey Baptiste than the current prediction. (+10.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hailey Baptiste, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naomi Osaka than the current prediction. (-10.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Naomi Osaka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Hailey Baptiste - Naomi Osaka Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    4.81
    (3)

    1.2
    (1.4)
    4%
    (4.6%)
    What is the prediction for Hailey Baptiste - Naomi Osaka?
  • Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Baptiste will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Osaka will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Baptiste is ranked WTA: 47. Osaka is ranked WTA: 24.
    • Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • Baptiste may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Osaka is seen as the favorite.
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Baptiste won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Hailey Baptiste - Naomi Osaka were as follows:
    22.03.2025 Hailey Baptiste - Naomi Osaka 1:2
    02.01.2025 Naomi Osaka - Hailey Baptiste 2:1
    Latest results of Hailey Baptiste
    Latest results of Naomi Osaka
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Masarova R.2 : 0
    2Parrizas-Diaz N. (RET.)Kudermetova P.0 : 0
    3Jacquemot E.Bouzkova M.2 : 0
    4Marino R. (Q)Fernandez L. (31)0 : 2
    5Mertens E. (19)Ahn A. (WC)2 : 0
    6Sun L.Osorio C.2 : 1
    7Bucsa C.Liu C. (Q)2 : 0
    8Eala A.Tauson C. (14)2 : 1
    9Rybakina E. (9)Pareja J. (WC)2 : 0
    10Bronzetti L.Valentova T. (Q)1 : 2
    11Raducanu E.Shibahara E. (Q)2 : 0
    12Tjen J. (Q)Kudermetova V. (24)2 : 1
    13Kessler M. (32)Linette M.2 : 0
    14Selekhmeteva O. (Q)Vondrousova M.0 : 2
    15Sasnovich A.Jovic I.0 : 2
    16Aiava D. (Q)Paolini J. (7)0 : 2
    17Pegula J. (4)Sherif M.2 : 0
    18Starodubtseva Y.Blinkova A.0 : 2
    19Azarenka V.Inoue H. (Q)2 : 0
    20Pavlyuchenkova A.Yastremska D. (30)2 : 1
    21Samsonova L. (17)Yuan Y.2 : 1
    22Jeanjean L.Hon P. (Q)0 : 2
    23Li A.Sramkova R.2 : 1
    24Zhang S. (Q)Bencic B. (16)0 : 2
    25Navarro E. (10)Wang Y.2 : 0
    26Teichmann J.McNally C. (WC)0 : 2
    27Uchijima M.Danilovic O.2 : 1
    28Krejcikova B.Mboko V. (22)2 : 0
    29Ostapenko J. (25)Wang Xiy. (Q)2 : 0
    30Townsend T.Ruzic A.2 : 0
    31Potapova A.Zhu L.2 : 1
    32Parks A.Andreeva M. (5)0 : 2
    33Keys M. (6)Zarazua R.1 : 2
    34Kvitova P.Parry D.0 : 2
    35Volynets K. (Q)Sonmez Z.0 : 2
    36Boulter K.Kostyuk M. (27)0 : 2
    37Noskova L. (21)Galfi D. (Q)2 : 0
    38Jones F. (Q)Lys E.0 : 2
    39Cirstea S.Sierra S.2 : 0
    40Williams V. (WC)Muchova K. (11)1 : 2
    41Kasatkina D. (15)Ruse G.2 : 0
    42Rakhimova K.Garcia C. (WC)2 : 1
    43Baptiste H.Siniakova K.2 : 0
    44Minnen G.Osaka N. (23)0 : 2
    45Frech M. (28)Gibson T. (WC)2 : 0
    46Semenistaja D. (Q)Stearns P.0 : 2
    47Vekic D.Bouzas Maneiro J.2 : 1
    48Tomljanovic A.Gauff C. (3)1 : 2
    49Anisimova A. (8)Birrell K.2 : 0
    50Jimenez Kasintseva V. (Q)Joint M.0 : 2
    51Collins D.Cristian J.0 : 2
    52Krueger A.Kenin S. (26)2 : 1
    53Haddad Maia B. (18)Kartal S.2 : 1
    54Boisson L.Golubic V.1 : 2
    55Sakkari M.Maria T.2 : 0
    56Bondar A.Svitolina E. (12)2 : 0
    57Alexandrova E. (13)Sevastova A.2 : 0
    58Dolehide C.Wang Xin.1 : 2
    59Zakharova A.Avanesyan E.2 : 0
    60Siegemund L.Shnaider D. (20)2 : 1
    61Kalinskaya A. (29)Ngounoue C. (WC)2 : 1
    62Putintseva Y.Cocciaretto E.2 : 0
    63Lamens S.Glozman V. (WC)2 : 0
    64Arango E.Swiatek I. (2)0 : 2

    1/32-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Kudermetova P.2 : 0
    2Jacquemot E.Fernandez L. (31)1 : 2
    3Mertens E. (19)Sun L.2 : 0
    4Bucsa C.Eala A.2 : 0
    5Rybakina E. (9)Valentova T.2 : 0
    6Raducanu E.Tjen J.2 : 0
    7Kessler M. (32)Vondrousova M.0 : 2
    8Jovic I.Paolini J. (7)0 : 2
    9Pegula J. (4)Blinkova A.2 : 0
    10Azarenka V.Pavlyuchenkova A.2 : 0
    11Samsonova L. (17)Hon P.1 : 2
    12Li A.Bencic B. (16)2 : 0
    13Navarro E. (10)McNally C.2 : 0
    14Uchijima M.Krejcikova B.0 : 2
    15Ostapenko J. (25)Townsend T.0 : 2
    16Potapova A.Andreeva M. (5)0 : 2
    17Zarazua R.Parry D.
    18Sonmez Z.Kostyuk M. (27)
    19Noskova L. (21)Lys E. (RET.)1 : 0
    20Cirstea S.Muchova K. (11)
    21Kasatkina D. (15)Rakhimova K.
    22Baptiste H.Osaka N. (23)0 : 2
    23Frech M. (28)Stearns P.
    24Vekic D.Gauff C. (3)
    25Anisimova A. (8)Joint M.
    26Cristian J.Krueger A.
    27Haddad Maia B. (18)Golubic V.2 : 0
    28Sakkari M.Bondar A.2 : 0
    29Alexandrova E. (13)Wang Xin.2 : 0
    30Zakharova A.Siegemund L.
    31Kalinskaya A. (29)Putintseva Y.2 : 0
    32Lamens S.Swiatek I. (2)1 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Fernandez L. (31)
    2Mertens E. (19)Bucsa C.
    3Rybakina E. (9)Raducanu E.
    4Vondrousova M.Paolini J. (7)
    5Pegula J. (4)Azarenka V.
    6Hon P.Li A.
    7Navarro E. (10)Krejcikova B.
    8Townsend T.Andreeva M. (5)
    9TBD #17TBD #18
    10Noskova L. (21)TBD #20
    11TBD #21Osaka N. (23)
    12TBD #23TBD #24
    13TBD #25TBD #26
    14Haddad Maia B. (18)Sakkari M.
    15Alexandrova E. (13)TBD #30
    16Kalinskaya A. (29)Swiatek I. (2)

    1/8-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8
    5TBD #9TBD #10
    6TBD #11TBD #12
    7TBD #13TBD #14
    8TBD #15TBD #16

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
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