Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

23/05/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito).

: Liga Pro - Round 14
Referee: Cabrera R. (Ecu)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.35	0.57
Ball Possession
67%	33%
Total shots
17	9
Shots on target
6	3
Big Chances
0	0
Corner Kicks
5	4
Passes
80% (344/430)	60% (121/201)
Yellow Cards
1	3
Red Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35	0.57
xG on target (xGOT)
0.97	0.65
Total shots
17	9
Shots on target
6	3
Shots off target
7	4
Blocked Shots
4	2
Shots inside the Box
12	6
Shots outside the Box
5	3
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
0	0
Corner Kicks
5	4
Touches in opposition box
21	15
Accurate through passes
3	0
Offsides
0	2
Free Kicks
12	10
Passes
80% (344/430)	60% (121/201)
Long passes
48% (24/50)	33% (22/66)
Passes in final third
71% (76/107)	41% (39/95)
Crosses
7% (1/15)	13% (3/24)
Expected assists (xA)
1.01	0.50
Throw-ins
17	17
Fouls
10	12
Tackles
75% (6/8)	58% (7/12)
Duels won
42	35
Clearances
35	17
Interceptions
5	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	4
xGOT faced
0.65	0.97
Goals prevented
-0.35	-1.03

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Peralta K. 🟨,
35', Mancilla Quinones J. L. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Spinelli C. ⚽, Mercado P. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', Mancilla Quinones J. L. 🟨,
57', 2 - 0, Sornoza J. ⚽,
58', Mendez J. ↓, Pata E. ↑,
59', Sornoza J. ↓, Cazares ↑,
59', Hoyos M. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
59', Orejuela C. ↓, Parrales J. ↑,
61', Gracia A. ↓, Mina G. ↑,
62', 2 - 1, Tapiero S. ⚽, Mina G. (A),
71', Caicedo E. ↓, Simisterra R. ↑,
73', Spinelli C. ↓, Medina J. ↑,
74', Mercado P. ↓, Arroyo J. P. ↑,
90+5', Santamaria T. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Independiente del Valle
61.1%

Draw
22.8%

Mushuc Runa
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.3%

22%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

21.1%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (-2%)

Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.47)	4.08 ↓ (4.22)	5.78 ↓ (6.31)	7.6% (7.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa?

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 13 - 81.3%). Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind del Valle: 62.2% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Independiente del Valle will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind del Valle won 2.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Recently, Ind del Valle has had a series of away games.
In this match, Ind del Valle is seen as the favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind del Valle won 14 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 41:21. (average 2.1:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Ind del Valle won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:10. (average 1.9:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Independiente del Valle won against Mushuc Runa?

Independiente del Valle has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against Independiente del Valle?

Mushuc Runa has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa were as follows:

05.10.2024 Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle 1:1

18.04.2024 Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa 2:1

06.08.2023 Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle 1:0

25.02.2023 Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa 3:1

02.11.2022 Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa 1:1

Latest results of Independiente del Valle

18.05.2025 Vinotinto - Independiente del Valle 1:3 ✺

15.05.2025 River Plate - Independiente del Valle 6:2 ✺

11.05.2025 Técnico Universitario - Independiente del Valle 1:2 ✺

08.05.2025 Universitario de Deportes - Independiente del Valle 1:1 ✺

04.05.2025 Independiente del Valle - Emelec 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Mushuc Runa

17.05.2025 Mushuc Runa - Orense 2:5 ✺

13.05.2025 Unión Santa Fe - Mushuc Runa 0:1 ✺

10.05.2025 Manta - Mushuc Runa 2:1 ✺

07.05.2025 Mushuc Runa - Cruzeiro 1:1 ✺

03.05.2025 Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Macará 4:3 ✺

Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle	18	10	6	2	34:16	18	36
2	Barcelona SC	18	10	3	5	30:23	7	33
3	Dep. Cuenca	18	10	2	6	22:15	7	32
4	LDU Quito	18	8	6	4	29:19	10	30
5	Orense	18	9	3	6	21:21	0	30
6	Aucas	17	7	5	5	24:20	4	26
7	Delfin	18	6	7	5	19:23	-4	25
8	U. Catolica	18	6	6	6	28:23	5	24
9	Libertad	18	6	6	6	27:25	2	24
10	Vinotinto	17	6	4	7	25:22	3	22
11	EL Nacional	18	5	5	8	22:28	-6	20
12	Manta	18	4	8	6	23:30	-7	20
13	Macara	18	4	7	7	14:17	-3	19
14	Emelec	18	4	7	7	13:22	-9	19
15	Mushuc Runa	18	4	3	11	22:35	-13	15
16	Tecnico U	18	2	6	10	16:30	-14	12

      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
      Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )

Which TV channels are streaming of Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Teleamazonas, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz