Moreirense vs Casa Pia: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Liga Portugal Moreirense - Casa Pia
Result
2:1
27/09/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Liga Portugal - Round 7
  • Referee: Bessa J. (Por)
Moreirense - Casa Pia - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.991.34
Ball Possession
54%46%
Total shots
1220
Shots on target
44
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
66
Passes
81% (328/406)78% (262/335)
Yellow Cards
54
Expected Goals (xG)
0.991.34
xG on target (xGOT)
1.841.23
Total shots
1220
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
511
Blocked Shots
35
Shots inside the Box
812
Shots outside the Box
48
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
66
Touches in opposition box
1822
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
43
Free Kicks
1513
Passes
81% (328/406)78% (262/335)
Long passes
35% (14/40)29% (17/58)
Passes in final third
59% (51/87)56% (50/89)
Crosses
13% (2/15)38% (9/24)
Expected assists (xA)
0.610.76
Throw-ins
2312
Fouls
1315
Tackles
91% (10/11)60% (12/20)
Duels won
4959
Clearances
3723
Interceptions
57
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
33
xGOT faced
1.231.84
Goals prevented
0.23-0.16

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 7', 0 - 1, Livolant J. , Conte A. (A),
  • 10', Conte A. , Benaissa-Yahia F. ,
  • 14', 1 - 1, Guilherme Schettine , Kiko (A),
  • 36', Alanzinho 🟨,
  • 37', Benaissa-Yahia F. 🟨,
  • 45+1', Kiko Bondoso 🟨,
  • 45+4', Marcelo 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 53', Sequeira P. , Azevedo D. ,
  • 53', Morais T. , Miguel Sousa ,
  • 62', Travassos , Teguia C. ,
  • 62', Sousa V. , Bernardo ,
  • 66', Larrazabal G. 🟨,
  • 68', Sousa D. 🟨,
  • 70', 2 - 1, Bernardo ,
  • 77', Alanzinho , Assis A. ,
  • 77', Kiko Bondoso , Landerson ,
  • 82', Nhaga R. , Svensson M. ,
  • 82', Kaique Rocha , Cassiano ,
  • 84', Perez S. 🟨,
  • 85', Kiko , Batista G. ,
  • 90+3', Guilherme Schettine 🟨,
  • 90+4', Bernardo 🟨,

Chances of winning


Moreirense
58.4%
Draw
31.1%
Casa Pia
10.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
42.8% 28.3% 29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6% 27.2% 27.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Moreirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Moreirense's performance.
  • Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Casa Pia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-13.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Moreirense that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+17.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Casa Pia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Moreirense - Casa Pia Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.92
    (2.18)
    3.77
    (3.3)
    12.74
    (3.22)
    -13.5%
    (7.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Moreirense - Casa Pia?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 45%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 and 11).
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Moreirense is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Moreirense: Ofori L. (Inactive) Rodri (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R. (Injury) Kiki (Injury) Mandic I. (Inactive) Nsona K. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Moreirense: Michel (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Casa Pia: Oukili Y. (Injury)
    • In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1.5:2.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Moreirense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:6. (average 2:3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Moreirense - Casa Pia were as follows:
    15.02.2025 Moreirense - Casa Pia 3:2
    14.09.2024 Casa Pia - Moreirense 3:1
    12.05.2024 Casa Pia - Moreirense 0:1
    08.01.2024 Moreirense - Casa Pia 1:4
    Latest results of Moreirense
    Latest results of Casa Pia
    21.09.2025 Casa Pia - Famalicão 1:1
    14.09.2025 Arouca - Casa Pia 0:2
    30.08.2025 Casa Pia - Nacional 0:2
    24.08.2025 Porto - Casa Pia 4:0
    15.08.2025 AVS - Casa Pia 0:2
    Liga Portugal Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Sporting CP760119:41518
    2FC Porto660015:11418
    3Benfica752013:4917
    4Moreirense750210:8215
    5Gil Vicente74128:4413
    6Famalicao63217:3411
    7Braga723211:749
    8Santa Clara72235:8-38
    9Vitoria Guimaraes72237:11-48
    10Arouca62229:14-58
    11Estrela71426:607
    12Alverca72148:11-37
    13Nacional72146:10-47
    14Casa Pia72146:11-57
    15Estoril71248:11-35
    16Tondela71244:11-75
    17Rio Ave60428:13-54
    18AFS70164:17-131

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          Liga Portugal (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2

    Which TV channels are streaming of Moreirense - Casa Pia?
    It is being streamed on channel
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