Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer USL Championship Monterey Bay - Orange County SC
Result
2:1
11/07/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : USL Championship
Monterey Bay - Orange County SC - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.300.39
Ball Possession
41%59%
Total shots
127
Shots on target
44
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
75
Passes
81% (267/329)85% (409/481)
Yellow Cards
31
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.300.39
xG on target (xGOT)
1.931.30
Total shots
127
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
41
Blocked Shots
42
Shots inside the Box
107
Shots outside the Box
20
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
20
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
75
Touches in opposition box
1927
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
1415
Passes
81% (267/329)85% (409/481)
Long passes
34% (17/50)51% (27/53)
Passes in final third
64% (53/83)68% (94/138)
Crosses
37% (7/19)12% (2/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.070.74
Throw-ins
916
Fouls
1514
Tackles
71% (10/14)90% (9/10)
Duels won
4434
Clearances
2320
Interceptions
86
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
32
xGOT faced
1.301.93
Goals prevented
0.20-0.07

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 39', 1 - 0, Ivanovic L. , Robinson G. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Jamison B. , Hegardt C. ,
  • 51', 1 - 1, Benalcazar N. , Sylla O. (A),
  • 51', Malango M. , Gutierrez D. ,
  • 54', 2 - 1, Sojberg A. , Gutierrez D. (A),
  • 58', Fonguck W. 🟨,
  • 63', Ivanovic L. 🟨,
  • 65', Ivanovic L. , Larsson A. ,
  • 69', Kelly S. 🟥,
  • 73', Dunbar C. , War M. ,
  • 76', Gomez S. 🟨,
  • 78', Gordon N. , Lara A. ,
  • 78', Sojberg A. , Gnaulati X. ,
  • 82', Partida K. , Santos K. ,
  • 82', Doghman R. , Ciotta N. ,
  • 88', Benalcazar N. 🟨,
  • 89', Sylla O. , Kone C. ,

Official Live

Chances of winning


Monterey Bay
31.4%
Draw
28.6%
Orange County SC
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40.2% 28.7% 31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1% 27.9% 31.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Monterey Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Monterey Bay's form might have worsened.
  • Orange County SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orange County SC's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (+7.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monterey Bay, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (-8.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orange County SC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Monterey Bay - Orange County SC Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.95
    (2.29)
    3.24
    (3.2)
    2.31
    (2.97)
    8.1%
    (8.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • Preview Facts
    • This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 9).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 2.
    • Monterey Bay is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Orange County SC has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Orange County SC may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Orange County SC has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.3:1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Monterey Bay won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Monterey Bay - Orange County SC were as follows:
    31.05.2025 Monterey Bay - Orange County SC 3:2
    22.03.2025 Orange County SC - Monterey Bay 0:3
    21.09.2024 Monterey Bay - Orange County SC 0:0
    27.04.2024 Orange County SC - Monterey Bay 2:0
    14.10.2023 Monterey Bay - Orange County SC 0:1
    Latest results of Monterey Bay
    Latest results of Orange County SC
    USL Championship Table
    2025

    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Louisville City22156145:182751
    2Charleston22152545:232247
    3Loudoun22104835:34134
    4North Carolina22103934:32233
    5Hartford Athletic2285932:27529
    6Detroit2278725:25029
    7Pittsburgh2277821:21028
    8Indy Eleven22751035:40-526
    9Rhode Island22661016:23-724
    10Tampa Bay21631224:32-821
    11Birmingham2249928:37-921
    12Miami FC22551222:37-1520


    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1FC Tulsa22126437:251242
    2Sacramento Republic2197531:171434
    3El Paso2188536:30632
    4Lexington2387825:29-431
    5San Antonio2186726:27-130
    6Phoenix Rising2379738:40-230
    7Orange County SC2084832:29328
    8New Mexico2083926:30-427
    9Colorado Springs2176827:29-227
    10Oakland Roots21731125:32-724
    11Monterey Bay23661123:30-724
    12Las Vegas Lights23661118:39-2124

          Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )

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