Miguel Tobon vs Luca Castagnola: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Tennis Istanbul Challenger Men 2025 Miguel Tobon - Luca Castagnola
Result
2:0
31/08/2025 at 08:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Istanbul - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals
Miguel Tobon - Luca Castagnola - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Aces
21
Double Faults
03
1st Serve Percentage
58%54%
1st Serve Points Won
72% (21/29)68% (17/25)
2nd Serve Points Won
76% (16/21)57% (12/21)
Break Points Saved
100% (1/1)67% (6/9)
1st Return Points Won
40% (10/25)28% (8/29)
2nd Return Points Won
43% (9/21)24% (5/21)
Break Points Converted
33% (3/9)0% (0/1)
Service Points Won
74% (37/50)59% (27/46)
Return Points Won
41% (19/46)26% (13/50)
Total Points Won
58% (56/96)42% (40/96)
Last 10 Balls
73
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
100% (9/9)63% (5/8)
Return Games Won
38% (3/8)0% (0/9)
Total Games Won
71% (12/17)29% (5/17)

Chances of winning


Miguel Tobon
56%
Luca Castagnola
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
47.7% 52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7% 48.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Miguel Tobon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Miguel Tobon's performance.
  • Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luca Castagnola might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miguel Tobon than the current prediction. (-4.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+4.3%)
  • Miguel Tobon - Luca Castagnola Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.75
    (1.97)

    2.23
    (1.8)
    2.3%
    (6.5%)
    What is the prediction for Miguel Tobon - Luca Castagnola?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tobon (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Tobon is ranked ATP: 682. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 628.
    • Tobon has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Castagnola's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Castagnola may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.
    • Recently, the players have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Miguel Tobon
    26.08.2025 Miguel Tobon - Calvin Hemery Hemery C. retired
    13.08.2025 Arthur Fery - Miguel Tobon 2:0
    Latest results of Luca Castagnola
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