Mexico vs Ecuador, FIFA World Cup: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer FIFA World Cup
Result
2:0
30/06/2026 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : World Championship - Play Offs - 1/16-finals
  • Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)
Mexico - Ecuador - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
1.020.72
Ball possession
43%57%
Total shots
157
Shots on target
31
Big chances
21
Corner kicks
38
Passes
78% (249/319)84% (340/407)
Yellow cards
03
Red cards
01
Expected goals (xG)
1.020.72
xG on target (xGOT)
1.430.63
Total shots
157
Shots on target
31
Shots off target
95
Blocked shots
31
Shots inside the box
105
Shots outside the box
52
Hit the woodwork
01
Big chances
21
Corner kicks
38
Touches in opposition box
2019
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
01
Free kicks
1410
Passes
78% (249/319)84% (340/407)
Long passes
47% (28/59)31% (16/52)
Passes in final third
58% (60/103)67% (89/132)
Crosses
57% (4/7)12% (3/25)
Expected assists (xA)
0.750.58
Throw ins
1622
Fouls
1014
Tackles
50% (5/10)73% (8/11)
Duels won
4940
Clearances
3821
Interceptions
76
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper saves
11
xGOT faced
0.631.43
Goals prevented
0.63-0.57

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 22', 1 - 0, Quinones J. ⚽, Alvarado R. (A),
  • 31', 2 - 0, Jimenez R. ⚽, Quinones J. (A),
  • 45+1', Franco A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Franco A. ↓, Medina Y. ↑,
  • 46', Ordonez J. ↓, Preciado A. ↑,
  • 58', Mora G. ↓, Gutierrez B. ↑,
  • 59', Valencia E. ↓, Rodriguez K. ↑,
  • 73', Romo L. ↓, Vargas O. ↑,
  • 74', Jimenez R. ↓, Gimenez S. ↑,
  • 79', Yeboah J. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
  • 79', Angulo N. ↓, Paez K. ↑,
  • 80', Quinones J. ↓, Pineda O. ↑,
  • 80', Alvarado R. ↓, Reyes I. ↑,
  • 90+3', Paez K. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Hincapie P. 🟥,
  • 90+9', Caicedo M. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Mexico
42%		Draw
34.6%		Ecuador
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
43% 31.1% 26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2% 30.3% 25.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mexico has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)
  • Ecuador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mexico than the current prediction. (+2.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ecuador than the current prediction. (+1.9%)
    •

    Mexico - Ecuador Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.28 ↑
    (2.23)    		 2.78 ↓
    (3.08)    		 4.09 ↑
    (3.69)    		 4.3%
    (4.4%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
    What is the prediction for Mexico - Ecuador?
    • Users Predictions: 101 users predict this event. Mexico will win (votes: 64 - 63.4%). Ecuador will win (votes: 9 - 8.9%). It will Tie (votes: 28 - 27.7%).
      Confidence interval (95%) for Mexico: 54% – 72.8%. The data is statistically significant.
    • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Mexico (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
    • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
      • DC - Mexico (1.25) (votes: 2 - 50%) .
      • AH +0.25 - Ecuador (2.02) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
      • O/U 1.5 - over (1.66) (votes: 2 - 50%) .
      • DNB - Mexico (1.47) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
      • O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • TQ, OT - Mexico (1.54) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
      • O/U 1.75 - under (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • 1X2, 1st Half - draw (1.79) (votes: 0 - 0%) .
    • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Mexico (votes: 14 - 48.3%). Ecuador (votes: 10 - 34.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 17.2%).
      •
    • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
    Preview Facts
    • Mexico is ranked FIFA: 14. Ecuador is ranked FIFA: 23.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mexico won 1.
    • Mexico has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Ecuador is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Mexico could have a small edge in this match.
    • In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Mexico won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.4:1.1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mexico - Ecuador were as follows:
    14.10.2025 Mexico - Ecuador 1:1
    30.06.2024 Mexico - Ecuador 0:0
    Latest results of Mexico
    24.06.2026 Czech Republic - Mexico 0:3 ✺
    18.06.2026 Mexico - South Korea 1:0 ✺
    11.06.2026 Mexico - South Africa 2:0 ✺
    04.06.2026 Mexico - Serbia 5:1 ✺
    30.05.2026 Mexico - Australia 1:0 ✺
    Latest results of Ecuador
    25.06.2026 Ecuador - Germany 2:1 ✺
    20.06.2026 Ecuador - Curaçao 0:0 ✺
    14.06.2026 Ivory Coast - Ecuador 1:0 ✺
    07.06.2026 Ecuador - Guatemala 3:0 ✺
    30.05.2026 Ecuador - Saudi Arabia 2:1 ✺
    FIFA World Cup Table
    South America
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Argentina18122431:102138
    2Ecuador1888214:5929
    3Colombia1877428:181028
    4Uruguay1877422:121028
    5Brazil1884624:17728
    6Paraguay1877414:10428
    7Bolivia18621017:35-1820
    8Venezuela1846818:28-1018
    9Peru1826106:21-1512
    10Chile1825119:27-1811

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    Which TV channels are streaming of Mexico - Ecuador?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    afghanistanAfghanistanAriana
    africaAfricaAzam Sports 2, Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport PSL, ZAP
    albaniaAlbaniaKlani IM, SuperSport 2, TV Klan
    andorraAndorrabeIN Sports 1
    angolaAngolaZ Sports 1
    argentinaArgentinaDirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Flow Eventos
    armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
    asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 6, beIN Sports MENA Max 6, beIN Sports MENA Max 6
    australiaAustraliaSBS, SBS On Demand
    austriaAustriaORF On, Servus TV
    azerbaijanAzerbaijanIctimai TV
    bangladeshBangladeshToffee Live, T Sports
    belarusBelarusSport TV
    belgiumBelgiumBNT News App, RTBF Auvio Direct, RTBF Tipik, Sporza, Sporza, VRT 1
    boliviaBoliviaEntel Gol 56, ENTEL TV, Tigo Sports 1, Tigo Sports App
    bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1
    brazilBrazilCaze TV, Claro TV+, Disney+, Globoplay, Sky+, SporTV, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
    bulgariaBulgariaBNT 1, BNT 3
    canadaCanadaRDS App, RDS, TSN 1, TSN 3, TSN 4, TSN 5, TSN+
    chileChileDirecTV Sports
    chinaChinaMigu
    colombiaColombiaWin play, Win Sports
    costa-ricaCosta-ricaTDMAX, Teletica 7, Teletica
    croatiaCroatiaHRT 2, HRTi, MAXtv To Go
    cubaCubaTele Rebelde
    czech-republicCzech-republicNova Action, Oneplay
    denmarkDenmarkDR 1, TV2 Play
    dr-congoDr-congoRTNC
    ecuadorEcuadorDAZN, DirecTV Sports, Teleamazonas
    el-salvadorEl-salvadorCanal 4, TCS GO, Tigo Sports
    estoniaEstoniaGo3 Extra Sports
    faroe-islandsFaroe-islandsTelevarp
    fijiFijiFBC Sports
    finlandFinlandYLE Areena, YLE TV2
    franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, New World TV
    georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 1
    germanyGermanyMagenta Sport
    greeceGreeceERT 1
    guatemalaGuatemalaChapin, TeleOnce, Tigo Sports
    guineaGuineaRTG
    hong-kongHong-kongNow Player
    hungaryHungaryM4 Sport
    icelandIcelandRUV
    indiaIndiaZEE5
    iranIranPersiana Sports
    irelandIrelandRTE 2, RTE Player
    israelIsraelSport 1
    italyItalyDAZN Italia
    japanJapanDAZN Japan, NHK G TV
    kazakhstanKazakhstanQazsport
    kosovoKosovoArena Premium 1, Klan Kosova
    kyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanKTRK Sports
    lithuaniaLithuaniaGo3 Extra Sports
    malaysiaMalaysiaunifi playTV, Unifi TV
    maldivesMaldivesICE Xtra, Medianet, TVM, Yes
    maltaMaltaTVM Sport+
    mexicoMexicoAzteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Canal 5, FOX+, FOX Sports, Nu9ve, TUDN, VIX, ViX Premium
    montenegroMontenegroTVCG 2
    myanmarMyanmarCanal+ Myanmar
    netherlandsNetherlandsNPO 1, NPO Start, Ziggo Go
    new-zealandNew-zealandTVNZ+
    nicaraguaNicaraguaTigo Sports
    nigeriaNigeriaSuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport LaLiga, Supersport Maximo 1
    north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDirecTV Sports Caribbean, RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
    north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaTDM Desporto
    norwayNorwayTV2, TV2 Play
    pakistanPakistanPTV Sports, Tapmad
    panamaPanamaMedcom GO, RPC, Telemetro, Tigo Sports
    paraguayParaguayCanal Trece, GEN
    peruPeruDirecTV Sports
    philippinesPhilippinesCignal Play, Pilipinas Live, TapGO TV
    polandPolandsport.tvp.pl, TVP 1, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
    portugalPortugalSport TV5
    romaniaRomaniaAntenaPLAY, Antena
    russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 1, Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
    serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 1
    singaporeSingaporemeWATCH, Singtel TV GO
    slovakiaSlovakiaJOJ Play, STVR Sport
    sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 1, Slovenia TV2
    south-africaSouth-africaSuperSport Grandstand, Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport PSL
    south-americaSouth-americaDGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
    south-koreaSouth-koreaJTBC, KBS 2
    spainSpainDAZN Espana
    surinameSurinameSTVS
    swedenSwedenTV4 Play, TV4
    switzerlandSwitzerlandPlay RTS, Play RTS, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
    taiwanTaiwanELTA Sports 1
    turkeyTurkeyTabii, TRT 1
    ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
    united-kingdomUnited-kingdomBBC iPlayer, BBC Radio 5 Live, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport, ITV 1, ITV X, STV, STV Player, UTV
    uruguayUruguayAUFTV, DAZN, DirecTV Sports, DSports 310
    usaUsaFOX Network, FOX One, Fubo Sports Network, Futbol de Primera Radio, NBC Universo, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock, SiriusXM FC, Telemundo, TUDN
    uzbekistanUzbekistanFutbol TV, Zor TV
    venezuelaVenezuelaDAZN, DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter
    vietnamVietnamTV 360, VTV 3, VTV Go
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