Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

03/06/2026 at 14:25 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Court Philippe-Chatrier (Paris).

ATP - SINGLES: French Open, clay - Quarter-finals

Match Stats


Aces
4	1
Double Faults
1	3
1st serve percentage
64%	66%
1st serve points won
59% (33/56)	65% (24/37)
2nd serve points won
35% (11/31)	58% (11/19)
Break Points Saved
10/15	0/3
1st return points won
35% (13/37)	41% (23/56)
2nd return points won
42% (8/19)	65% (20/31)
Break Points Converted
3/3	5/15
Winners
26	16
Unforced errors
37	16
Net points won
65% (15/23)	59% (10/17)
Service Points Won
51% (44/87)	63% (35/56)
Return Points Won
38% (21/56)	49% (43/87)
Total Points Won
45% (65/143)	55% (78/143)
Last 10 balls
2	8
Match points saved
0	0
Service games won
44% (4/9)	70% (7/10)
Return games won
30% (3/10)	56% (5/9)
Total games won
37% (7/19)	63% (12/19)

Chances of winning

Matteo Berrettini
62.6%

Matteo Arnaldi
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.9%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Berrettini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Matteo Berrettini - Matteo Arnaldi Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.58)		2.56 ↑ (2.44)	3.7% (4.4%)

What is the prediction for Matteo Berrettini - Matteo Arnaldi?

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Arnaldi (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Berrettini (1.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -4.5 Games - Arnaldi (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Matteo Berrettini will win (39 of 46 users predict this - 84.78%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.4% – 95.16%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Arnaldi (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:0.

Preview Facts

Berrettini is ranked ATP: 105. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 104.
Now, both players are in good form.
Berrettini might have a minor edge in this game.
The players have not played against each other recently.

How many head-to-head matches has Matteo Berrettini won against Matteo Arnaldi?

Matteo Berrettini has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Matteo Arnaldi won against Matteo Berrettini?

Matteo Arnaldi has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Matteo Berrettini - Matteo Arnaldi were as follows:

Latest results of Matteo Berrettini

01.06.2026 Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Matteo Berrettini 0:3 ✺

30.05.2026 Matteo Berrettini - Francisco Comesana 3:2 ✺

28.05.2026 Arthur Rinderknech - Matteo Berrettini 0:3 ✺

25.05.2026 Marton Fucsovics - Matteo Berrettini 1:3 ✺

14.05.2026 Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Matteo Berrettini 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Matteo Arnaldi

01.06.2026 Francis Tiafoe - Matteo Arnaldi 2:3 ✺

30.05.2026 Matteo Arnaldi - Raphael Collignon 3:2 ✺

28.05.2026 Matteo Arnaldi - Stefanos Tsitsipas 3:1 ✺

26.05.2026 Tallon Griekspoor - Matteo Arnaldi 1:3 ✺

10.05.2026 Matteo Arnaldi - Rafael Jodar 1:2 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Tabur C. (WC)	3 : 0
2	Fearnley J.	Cerundolo J. M.	0 : 3
3	Landaluce M.	Prado Angelo J. C. (Q)	3 : 2
4	Kopriva V.	Moutet C. (30)	3 : 2
5	Rinderknech A. (22)	Rodionov J. (Q)	3 : 0
6	Fucsovics M.	Berrettini M.	1 : 3
7	Quinn E.	Comesana F.	0 : 3
8	Ofner S.	Darderi L. (14)	0 : 3
9	Bublik A. (9)	Struff J-L.	1 : 3
10	Faria J. (Q)	Shapovalov D.	3 : 0
11	Munar J.	Hurkacz H.	1 : 3
12	Spizzirri E.	Tiafoe F. (19)	1 : 3
13	Griekspoor T. (29)	Arnaldi M.	1 : 3
14	Muller A. (RET.)	Tsitsipas S.	0 : 1
15	Collignon R.	Vukic A.	3 : 0
16	Merida Aguilar D.	Shelton B. (5)	0 : 3
17	Auger-Aliassime F. (4)	Altmaier D.	3 : 2
18	Baez S. (RET.)	Burruchaga R. A.	1 : 2
19	van Assche L.	Gaubas V. (LL)	3 : 1
20	Bautista-Agut R.	Nakashima B. (31)	0 : 3
21	Norrie C. (RET.) (20)	Vallejo D.	0 : 1
22	Cilic M.	Kouame M. (WC)	0 : 3
23	Tabilo A.	Majchrzak K.	3 : 0
24	Faurel T. (Q)	Vacherot V. (16)	1 : 3
25	Cobolli F. (10)	Pellegrino A. (Q)	3 : 0
26	Wu Y.	Giron M.	3 : 0
27	Diaz Acosta F. (Q)	Zhang Z.	3 : 0
28	Garin C.	Tien L. (18)	1 : 3
29	Cerundolo F. (25)	Van De Zandschulp B.	3 : 1
30	Gaston H. (WC)	Monfils G. (WC)	3 : 2
31	Popyrin A.	Svajda Z.	1 : 3
32	Walton A. (WC)	Medvedev D. (6)	3 : 2
33	De Minaur A. (8)	Samuel T. (Q)	3 : 0
34	Blockx A.	Wong C. (LL)	3 : 0
35	Navone M.	Brooksby J.	3 : 0
36	Droguet T. (WC)	Mensik J. (26)	0 : 3
37	Etcheverry T. M. (23)	Borges N.	0 : 3
38	Kecmanovic M.	Marozsan F.	3 : 0
39	Nava E. (Q)	Ugo Carabelli C.	0 : 3
40	Buse I.	Rublev A. (11)	1 : 3
41	Ruud C. (15)	Safiullin R. (Q)	3 : 2
42	Medjedovic H.	Hanfmann Y.	3 : 1
43	Sonego L.	Herbert P. (Q)	3 : 2
44	Hijikata R.	Paul T. (24)	1 : 3
45	Fonseca J. (28)	Pavlovic L. (Q)	3 : 0
46	Zheng M. (Q)	Prizmic D.	0 : 3
47	Dellien H. (Q)	Royer V.	0 : 3
48	Mpetshi Perricard G.	Djokovic N. (3)	1 : 3
49	Fritz T. (7)	Basavareddy N. (WC)	1 : 3
50	Shevchenko A.	Michelsen A.	0 : 3
51	Duckworth J.	Diallo G. (RET.)	1 : 0
52	Kovacevic A.	Jodar R. (27)	0 : 3
53	Davidovich Fokina A. (21)	Dzumhur D.	3 : 2
54	Llamas Ruiz P. (Q)	Tirante T. A.	1 : 3
55	Kokkinakis T.	Atmane T.	3 : 2
56	Carreno-Busta P.	Lehecka J. (12)	3 : 0
57	Khachanov K. (13)	Gea A. (WC)	3 : 0
58	Jacquet K. (Q)	Trungelliti M.	0 : 3
59	Cina F. (Q)	Opelka R.	3 : 2
60	Wawrinka S.	De Jong J. (LL)	1 : 3
61	Humbert U. (32)	Mannarino A.	3 : 0
62	Halys Q.	Bellucci M.	3 : 0
63	Machac T.	Bergs Z.	3 : 0
64	Bonzi B.	Zverev A. (2)	0 : 3

1/32-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Cerundolo J. M.	2 : 3
2	Landaluce M.	Kopriva V.	3 : 2
3	Rinderknech A. (22)	Berrettini M.	0 : 3
4	Comesana F.	Darderi L. (14)	3 : 2
5	Struff J-L.	Faria J.	0 : 3
6	Hurkacz H.	Tiafoe F. (19)	2 : 3
7	Arnaldi M.	Tsitsipas S.	3 : 1
8	Collignon R.	Shelton B. (5)	3 : 0
9	Auger-Aliassime F. (4)	Burruchaga R. A.	3 : 1
10	van Assche L.	Nakashima B. (31)	2 : 3
11	Vallejo D.	Kouame M.	2 : 3
12	Tabilo A. (WO.)	Vacherot V. (16)
13	Cobolli F. (10)	Wu Y.	3 : 0
14	Diaz Acosta F.	Tien L. (18)	2 : 3
15	Cerundolo F. (25)	Gaston H.	3 : 1
16	Svajda Z.	Walton A.	3 : 1
17	De Minaur A. (WO.) (8)	Blockx A.
18	Navone M.	Mensik J. (26)	2 : 3
19	Borges N.	Kecmanovic M.	3 : 1
20	Ugo Carabelli C.	Rublev A. (11)	1 : 3
21	Ruud C. (15)	Medjedovic H.	3 : 0
22	Sonego L.	Paul T. (24)	0 : 3
23	Fonseca J. (28)	Prizmic D.	3 : 2
24	Royer V.	Djokovic N. (3)	1 : 3
25	Basavareddy N.	Michelsen A.	1 : 3
26	Duckworth J.	Jodar R. (27)	1 : 3
27	Davidovich Fokina A. (21)	Tirante T. A.	1 : 3
28	Kokkinakis T. (RET.)	Carreno-Busta P.	1 : 1
29	Khachanov K. (13)	Trungelliti M.	3 : 1
30	Cina F.	De Jong J.	0 : 3
31	Humbert U. (32)	Halys Q.	0 : 3
32	Machac T.	Zverev A. (2)	0 : 3

1/16-finals

1	Cerundolo J. M.	Landaluce M.	3 : 2
2	Berrettini M.	Comesana F.	3 : 2
3	Faria J.	Tiafoe F. (19)	2 : 3
4	Arnaldi M.	Collignon R.	3 : 2
5	Auger-Aliassime F. (4)	Nakashima B. (31)	3 : 1
6	Kouame M.	Tabilo A.	1 : 3
7	Cobolli F. (10)	Tien L. (18)	3 : 0
8	Cerundolo F. (25)	Svajda Z.	2 : 3
9	De Minaur A. (8)	Mensik J. (26)	1 : 3
10	Borges N.	Rublev A. (11)	0 : 3
11	Ruud C. (15)	Paul T. (24)	3 : 2
12	Fonseca J. (28)	Djokovic N. (3)	3 : 2
13	Michelsen A.	Jodar R. (27)	2 : 3
14	Tirante T. A.	Carreno-Busta P.	1 : 3
15	Khachanov K. (13)	De Jong J.	2 : 3
16	Halys Q.	Zverev A. (2)	1 : 3

1/8-finals

1	Cerundolo J. M.	Berrettini M.	0 : 3
2	Tiafoe F. (19)	Arnaldi M.	2 : 3
3	Auger-Aliassime F. (4)	Tabilo A.	3 : 0
4	Cobolli F. (10)	Svajda Z.	3 : 1
5	Mensik J. (26)	Rublev A. (11)	3 : 2
6	Ruud C. (15)	Fonseca J. (28)	1 : 3
7	Jodar R. (27)	Carreno-Busta P.	3 : 2
8	De Jong J.	Zverev A. (2)	0 : 3

Quarter-finals

1	Berrettini M. (RET.)	Arnaldi M.	0 : 1
2	Auger-Aliassime F. (4)	Cobolli F. (10)	1 : 3
3	Mensik J. (26)	Fonseca J. (28)	3 : 0
4	Jodar R. (27)	Zverev A. (2)	0 : 3

Semi-finals

1	Arnaldi M.	Cobolli F. (WO.) (10)
2	Mensik J. (26)	Zverev A. (2)	1 : 3

Final

1

Cobolli F. (10)

Zverev A. (2)

2 : 3

Which TV channels are streaming of Matteo Berrettini - Matteo Arnaldi?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
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Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	HBO Max