Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

08/03/2025 at 15:40 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

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ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells (USA), hard - 1/32-finals

Match Stats


Aces
2	0
Double Faults
5	0
1st Serve Percentage
54%	43%
1st Serve Points Won
61% (20/33)	57% (17/30)
2nd Serve Points Won
36% (10/28)	55% (22/40)
Break Points Saved
40% (4/10)	64% (7/11)
1st Return Points Won
43% (13/30)	39% (13/33)
2nd Return Points Won
45% (18/40)	64% (18/28)
Break Points Converted
36% (4/11)	60% (6/10)
Winners
5	8
Unforced Errors
17	11
Net Points Won
80% (4/5)	67% (2/3)
Service Points Won
49% (30/61)	56% (39/70)
Return Points Won
44% (31/70)	51% (31/61)
Total Points Won
47% (61/131)	53% (70/131)
Last 10 Balls
3	7
Match Points Saved
0	0
Service Games Won
45% (5/11)	64% (7/11)
Return Games Won
36% (4/11)	55% (6/11)
Total Games Won
41% (9/22)	59% (13/22)

Chances of winning

Andrey Rublev
68.5%

Matteo Arnaldi
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.7%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrey Rublev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↑ (1.32)		3.02 ↓ (3.51)	5.2% (4.6%)

What is the prediction for Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi?

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Rublev will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rublev: 23.1% – 88.1%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

Rublev is ranked ATP: 8. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 35.
Two players are playing changeable.
Arnaldi could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
In this match Rublev is a favorite.
Last 4 head-to-head matches Rublev won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:5 (average 1:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Andrey Rublev won against Matteo Arnaldi?

Andrey Rublev has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Matteo Arnaldi won against Andrey Rublev?

Matteo Arnaldi has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi were as follows:

11.08.2024 Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi 2:0

31.05.2024 Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi 0:3

26.10.2023 Matteo Arnaldi - Andrey Rublev 0:2

Latest results of Andrey Rublev

25.02.2025 Quentin Halys - Andrey Rublev 2:1 ✺

22.02.2025 Jack Draper - Andrey Rublev 1:2 ✺

21.02.2025 Felix Aliassime-Auger - Andrey Rublev 1:2 ✺

20.02.2025 Andrey Rublev - Alex De Minaur 2:1 ✺

19.02.2025 Andrey Rublev - Nuno Borges 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Matteo Arnaldi

06.03.2025 Matteo Arnaldi - Aleksandar Kovacevic 2:1 ✺

25.02.2025 Alexander Zverev - Matteo Arnaldi 2:1 ✺

15.02.2025 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Arnaldi 2:0 ✺

14.02.2025 Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima 2:0 ✺

13.02.2025 Matteo Arnaldi - Learner Tien 2:1 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Bye
2	Kecmanovic M.	Griekspoor T.	1 : 2
3	Marozsan F.	Martinez P.	2 : 0
4	Bye	Mpetshi Perricard G. (29)
5	Machac T. (19)	Bye
6	Bublik A.	Watanuki Y. (Q)	1 : 2
7	Bautista-Agut R.	Dzumhur D. (Q)	1 : 2
8	Bye	Tiafoe F. (16)
9	Rune H. (12)	Bye
10	Moutet C.	Thompson J.	2 : 1
11	Munar J.	Nishikori K.	1 : 2
12	Bye	Humbert U. (18)
13	Berrettini M. (28)	Bye
14	Carballes Baena R.	O'Connell C.	1 : 2
15	Seyboth Wild T.	Muller A.	2 : 1
16	Bye	Tsitsipas S. (8)
17	Ruud C. (4)	Bye
18	Giron M.	Basilashvili N. (Q)	2 : 0
19	Bergs Z.	Quinn E. (Q)	2 : 0
20	Bye	Popyrin A. (26)
21	Fils A. (20)	Bye
22	Zhang Z.	Diallo G. (LL)	1 : 2
23	Safiullin R.	Opelka R. (WC)	2 : 0
24	Bye	Musetti L. (15)
25	Paul T. (10)	Bye
26	Boyer T. (WC)	Vukic A.	2 : 1
27	Norrie C.	Nardi L.	2 : 0
28	Bye	Lehecka J. (23)
29	Michelsen A. (31)	Bye
30	Smith C. (Q)	Cobolli F.	2 : 1
31	Bu Y.	Basavareddy N. (WC)	2 : 0
32	Bye	Medvedev D. (5)
33	Rublev A. (7)	Bye
34	Arnaldi M.	Kovacevic A.	2 : 1
35	Shevchenko A.	Hijikata R.	0 : 2
36	Bye	Nakashima B. (32)
37	Khachanov K. (22)	Bye
38	Etcheverry T. M.	Mensik J.	0 : 2
39	Navone M.	Tien L.	2 : 0
40	Bye	Shelton B. (11)
41	Draper J. (13)	Bye
42	Fearnley J.	Fonseca J. (WC)	1 : 2
43	Bonzi B.	Brooksby J. (PR)	1 : 2
44	Bye	Auger-Aliassime F. (17)
45	Tabilo A. (30)	Bye
46	Tu L. (Q)	Lajovic D.	0 : 2
47	Gigante M. (Q)	Baez S.	2 : 1
48	Bye	Fritz T. (3)
49	Djokovic N. (6)	Bye
50	Van De Zandschulp B. (LL)	Kyrgios N. (RET.) (PR)	1 : 0
51	McDonald M. (WC)	Davidovich Fokina A.	2 : 1
52	Bye	Cerundolo F. (25)
53	Hurkacz H. (21)	Bye
54	Darderi L.	Gaston H. (Q)	0 : 2
55	Goffin D.	Sonego L.	2 : 0
56	Bye	De Minaur A. (9)
57	Dimitrov G. (14)	Bye
58	Rinderknech A.	Borges N.	1 : 2
59	Struff J-L.	Monfils G.	0 : 2
60	Bye	Korda S. (24)
61	Shapovalov D. (27)	Bye
62	Zeppieri G. (Q)	Walton A. (Q)	0 : 2
63	Halys Q.	Carreno-Busta P. (Q)	2 : 0
64	Bye	Alcaraz C. (2)

1/32-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Griekspoor T.	1 : 2
2	Marozsan F. (RET.)	Mpetshi Perricard G. (29)	0 : 1
3	Machac T. (RET.) (19)	Watanuki Y.	1 : 0
4	Dzumhur D.	Tiafoe F. (16)	0 : 2
5	Rune H. (12)	Moutet C.	2 : 0
6	Nishikori K.	Humbert U. (18)	0 : 2
7	Berrettini M. (28)	O'Connell C.	2 : 0
8	Seyboth Wild T.	Tsitsipas S. (8)	0 : 2
9	Ruud C. (4)	Giron M.	1 : 2
10	Bergs Z.	Popyrin A. (26)	0 : 2
11	Fils A. (20)	Diallo G.	2 : 0
12	Safiullin R.	Musetti L. (15)	1 : 2
13	Paul T. (10)	Boyer T.	2 : 0
14	Norrie C.	Lehecka J. (23)	2 : 1
15	Michelsen A. (31)	Smith C.	2 : 0
16	Bu Y.	Medvedev D. (5)	0 : 2
17	Rublev A. (7)	Arnaldi M.	0 : 2
18	Hijikata R.	Nakashima B. (32)	0 : 2
19	Khachanov K. (22)	Mensik J.	2 : 1
20	Navone M.	Shelton B. (11)	0 : 2
21	Draper J. (13)	Fonseca J.	2 : 0
22	Brooksby J.	Auger-Aliassime F. (17)	2 : 0
23	Tabilo A. (30)	Lajovic D.	2 : 0
24	Gigante M.	Fritz T. (3)	0 : 2
25	Djokovic N. (6)	Van De Zandschulp B.	1 : 2
26	McDonald M.	Cerundolo F. (25)	1 : 2
27	Hurkacz H. (21)	Gaston H.	2 : 0
28	Goffin D.	De Minaur A. (9)	0 : 2
29	Dimitrov G. (14)	Borges N.	2 : 0
30	Monfils G.	Korda S. (24)	2 : 0
31	Shapovalov D. (27)	Walton A.	2 : 0
32	Halys Q.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Griekspoor T.	Mpetshi Perricard G. (29)	2 : 0
2	Watanuki Y.	Tiafoe F. (16)	2 : 0
3	Rune H. (12)	Humbert U. (18)	2 : 1
4	Berrettini M. (28)	Tsitsipas S. (8)	0 : 2
5	Giron M.	Popyrin A. (26)	2 : 1
6	Fils A. (20)	Musetti L. (15)	2 : 1
7	Paul T. (10)	Norrie C.	2 : 0
8	Michelsen A. (RET.) (31)	Medvedev D. (5)	0 : 0
9	Arnaldi M.	Nakashima B. (32)	0 : 2
10	Khachanov K. (22)	Shelton B. (11)	0 : 2
11	Draper J. (13)	Brooksby J.	2 : 0
12	Tabilo A. (30)	Fritz T. (3)	1 : 2
13	Van De Zandschulp B.	Cerundolo F. (25)	0 : 2
14	Hurkacz H. (21)	De Minaur A. (9)	0 : 2
15	Dimitrov G. (14)	Monfils G.	2 : 1
16	Shapovalov D. (27)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Griekspoor T.	Watanuki Y.	2 : 0
2	Rune H. (12)	Tsitsipas S. (8)	2 : 0
3	Giron M.	Fils A. (20)	1 : 2
4	Paul T. (10)	Medvedev D. (5)	0 : 2
5	Nakashima B. (32)	Shelton B. (11)	0 : 2
6	Draper J. (13)	Fritz T. (3)	2 : 0
7	Cerundolo F. (25)	De Minaur A. (9)	2 : 0
8	Dimitrov G. (14)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Griekspoor T.	Rune H. (12)	1 : 2
2	Fils A. (20)	Medvedev D. (5)	1 : 2
3	Shelton B. (11)	Draper J. (13)	0 : 2
4	Cerundolo F. (25)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 2

Semi-finals

1	Rune H. (12)	Medvedev D. (5)	2 : 0
2	Draper J. (13)	Alcaraz C. (2)	2 : 1

Final

1

Rune H. (12)

Draper J. (13)

0 : 2

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