Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Korda: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Tennis ATP Tokyo Marcos Giron - Sebastian Korda
Result
1:2
24/09/2025 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/16-finals
Marcos Giron - Sebastian Korda - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Aces
68
Double Faults
12
1st Serve Percentage
58%56%
1st Serve Points Won
70% (40/57)80% (48/60)
2nd Serve Points Won
59% (24/41)48% (23/48)
Break Points Saved
60% (3/5)83% (10/12)
1st Return Points Won
28% (17/60)30% (17/57)
2nd Return Points Won
52% (25/48)41% (17/41)
Break Points Converted
17% (2/12)40% (2/5)
Service Points Won
66% (64/97)66% (71/108)
Return Points Won
34% (37/108)34% (33/97)
Total Points Won
49% (101/205)51% (104/205)
Last 10 Balls
37
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
87% (13/15)88% (14/16)
Return Games Won
13% (2/16)13% (2/15)
Total Games Won
48% (15/31)52% (16/31)

Chances of winning


Marcos Giron
39.9%
Sebastian Korda
60.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
43.2% 56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4% 55.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Marcos Giron has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)
  • Sebastian Korda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marcos Giron than the current prediction. (+4.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Korda than the current prediction. (-4.5%)
  • Marcos Giron - Sebastian Korda Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.36
    (2.16)

    1.6
    (1.64)
    4.7%
    (7.4%)
    What is the prediction for Marcos Giron - Sebastian Korda?
  • Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Giron will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Korda will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Giron: 35.9%97.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Giron (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Giron is ranked ATP: 50. Korda is ranked ATP: 79.
    • Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.
    • Giron may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Korda will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Giron won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Marcos Giron - Sebastian Korda were as follows:
    19.10.2022 Marcos Giron - Sebastian Korda 1:2
    Latest results of Marcos Giron
    Latest results of Sebastian Korda
    25.08.2025 Cameron Norrie - Sebastian Korda Korda S. retired
    22.08.2025 Sebastian Korda - Marton Fucsovics Fucsovics M. walkover
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Baez S.2 : 0
    2Bergs Z.Tabilo A.2 : 1
    3Thompson J.Nakashima B.1 : 2
    4Fucsovics M. (Q)Tiafoe F. (8)2 : 1
    5Ruud C. (4)Mochizuki S. (WC)2 : 1
    6Munar J.Berrettini M.0 : 2
    7Dzumhur D.Vukic A. (Q)1 : 2
    8Altmaier D.Shapovalov D. (7)2 : 0
    9Humbert U. (6)Brooksby J. (PR)0 : 2
    10Nishioka Y. (WC)Darderi L.0 : 2
    11Michelsen A.Quinn E. (Q)0 : 2
    12Medjedovic H.Rune H. (3)0 : 2
    13Machac T. (5)Shimabukuro S. (Q)0 : 2
    14Giron M.Korda S.1 : 2
    15Watanuki Y. (WC)Borges N.1 : 2
    16Diallo G.Fritz T. (2)1 : 2

    1/8-finals
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Bergs Z.2 : 0
    2Nakashima B.Fucsovics M.2 : 0
    3Ruud C. (4)Berrettini M.2 : 0
    4Vukic A.Altmaier D.2 : 0
    5Brooksby J.Darderi L.2 : 0
    6Quinn E.Rune H. (3)0 : 2
    7Shimabukuro S.Korda S.0 : 2
    8Borges N.Fritz T. (2)0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Nakashima B.2 : 0
    2Ruud C. (4)Vukic A.2 : 0
    3Brooksby J.Rune H. (3)2 : 0
    4Korda S.Fritz T. (2)1 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Ruud C. (4)2 : 1
    2Brooksby J.Fritz T. (2)0 : 2

    Final
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Fritz T. (2)2 : 0
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