Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer UEFA Europa League
Soccer UEFA Europa League Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao
Result
4:1
08/05/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Europa League - Play Offs - Semi-finals
  • Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)
Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.000.79
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
1111
Shots on target
51
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
02
Passes
78% (356/456)81% (328/405)
Yellow Cards
34
Expected Goals (xG)
2.000.79
xG on target (xGOT)
2.240.09
Total shots
1111
Shots on target
51
Shots off target
25
Blocked Shots
45
Shots inside the Box
74
Shots outside the Box
47
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
02
Touches in opposition box
2619
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
1710
Passes
78% (356/456)81% (328/405)
Long passes
35% (19/55)51% (28/55)
Passes in final third
67% (91/135)69% (75/108)
Crosses
60% (3/5)15% (4/26)
Expected assists (xA)
0.910.61
Throw-ins
1823
Fouls
1017
Tackles
71% (15/21)57% (8/14)
Duels won
7541
Clearances
3424
Interceptions
819
Errors leading to shot
20
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
01
xGOT faced
0.092.24
Goals prevented
-0.91-1.76

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 25', Mazraoui N. 🟨,
  • 31', 0 - 1, Jauregizar M. ⚽,
  • 39', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (4 - 0)
  • 59', Casemiro 🟨,
  • 61', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Prados Diaz B. ↑,
  • 62', Gorosabel A. ↓, de Marcos O. ↑,
  • 62', Djalo A. ↓, Olabarrieta A. ↑,
  • 62', Mazraoui N. ↓, Shaw L. ↑,
  • 62', Ugarte M. ↓, Mount M. ↑,
  • 62', Garnacho A. ↓, Diallo A. ↑,
  • 67', Gomez U. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
  • 72', 1 - 1, Mount M. ⚽, Yoro L. (A),
  • 73', Prados Diaz B. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
  • 78', Nunez U. 🟨,
  • 78', Berenguer A. 🟨,
  • 80', 2 - 1, Casemiro ⚽, Fernandes B. (A),
  • 81', Lindelof V. ↓, Amass H. ↑,
  • 81', Casemiro ↓, Mainoo K. ↑,
  • 85', 3 - 1, Hojlund R. ⚽, Diallo A. (A),
  • 89', Sannadi M. 🟨,
  • 90+1', Dorgu P. 🟨,
  • 90+1', 4 - 1, Mount M. ⚽,

Chances of winning


Manchester United
51%		Draw
26.4%		Athletic Bilbao
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
46.2% 26.4% 27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1% 26.9% 26.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)
  • Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+4.3%)
    •

    Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.89 ↓
    (2.08)    		 3.62 ↓
    (3.64)    		 4.22 ↑
    (3.51)    		 4.2%
    (4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    •
    What is the prediction for Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao?
  • Users Predictions: 91 users predict this event. Man Utd will win (votes: 37 - 40.7%). Athletic will win (votes: 37 - 40.7%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 18.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Man Utd: 30.6% – 50.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 17 high ROI users predict this event. Man Utd (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Athletic (votes: 10 - 58.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +0.25 - Athletic (votes: 4 - 100%).
    • AH +0.5 - Athletic (votes: 5 - 100%).
    • AH +1 - Athletic (votes: 5 - 100%).
    • AH +0.75 - Athletic (votes: 5 - 100%).
    • AH -0.25 - Athletic (votes: 5 - 100%).
    • AH -0.5 - Athletic (votes: 5 - 83.3%).
    • AH 0 - Athletic (votes: 9 - 100%).
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%).
    • BTS - yes (votes: 13 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • 1st leg result: 3-0. 2nd leg.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • Man Utd may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Man Utd might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Man Utd: Dalot D. (Calf Injury) Heaven A. (Ankle Injury) Martinez Li. (Knee Injury) Obi C. (Inactive) Zirkzee J. (Hamstring Injury)
    • There will not play in Athletic: Sancet O. (Muscle Injury) Vivian D. (Red Card) Williams I. (Muscle Injury) Williams N. (Pelvis Injury)
    • There are questionable in Man Utd: de Ligt M. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Man Utd won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Man Utd won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao were as follows:
    01.05.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United 0:3
    06.08.2023 Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao 1:1
    Latest results of Manchester United
    04.05.2025 Brentford - Manchester United 4:3 ✺
    01.05.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United 0:3 ✺
    27.04.2025 Bournemouth - Manchester United 1:1 ✺
    20.04.2025 Manchester United - Wolverhampton Wanderers 0:1 ✺
    17.04.2025 Manchester United - Lyon 5:4 ✺
    Latest results of Athletic Bilbao
    04.05.2025 Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao 0:0 ✺
    01.05.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United 0:3 ✺
    23.04.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Las Palmas 1:0 ✺
    20.04.2025 Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 1:0 ✺
    17.04.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Glasgow Rangers 2:0 ✺
    Draw
    2025/26

    1/8-finals
    1FredrikstadBye
    3MidtjyllandBye
    4ByeHibernian
    5PAOKBye
    8ByeWolfsberger AC
    9Sabah BakuCelje3 : 3, 2 : 3
    10AEK LarnacaPartizan2 : 2, 1 : 0
    11OstravaBye
    12LegiaAktobe1 : 0, 1 : 0
    13LuganoBye
    14PaksCFR Cluj0 : 3, 0 : 0
    15Levski SofiaH. Beer Sheva2 : 1, 0 : 0
    16ByeBraga
    19Sheriff TiraspolPrishtina1 : 2, 4 : 0
    20ByeUtrecht
    21AnderlechtBye
    22TrnavaHacken2 : 2, 0 : 1
    27BesiktasBye
    28Shakhtar DonetskIlves0 : 0, 6 : 0

    Quarter-finals
    1FredrikstadBye
    2MidtjyllandHibernian
    3PAOKBye
    4ByeWolfsberger AC
    5CeljeAEK Larnaca
    6OstravaLegia
    7LuganoCFR Cluj
    8Levski SofiaBraga
    10Sheriff TiraspolUtrecht
    11AnderlechtHacken
    14BesiktasShakhtar Donetsk

    Semi-finals
    1FredrikstadTBD #2
    2PAOKWolfsberger AC
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8
    5ByeTBD #10
    6TBD #11Bye
    7ByeTBD #14
    Which TV channels are streaming of Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao?
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