Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

08/05/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Old Trafford (Manchester).

: Europa League - Play Offs - Semi-finals
Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.00	0.79
Ball Possession
52%	48%
Total shots
11	11
Shots on target
5	1
Big Chances
2	0
Corner Kicks
0	2
Passes
78% (356/456)	81% (328/405)
Yellow Cards
3	4
Expected Goals (xG)
2.00	0.79
xG on target (xGOT)
2.24	0.09
Total shots
11	11
Shots on target
5	1
Shots off target
2	5
Blocked Shots
4	5
Shots inside the Box
7	4
Shots outside the Box
4	7
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
2	0
Corner Kicks
0	2
Touches in opposition box
26	19
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
2	0
Free Kicks
17	10
Passes
78% (356/456)	81% (328/405)
Long passes
35% (19/55)	51% (28/55)
Passes in final third
67% (91/135)	69% (75/108)
Crosses
60% (3/5)	15% (4/26)
Expected assists (xA)
0.91	0.61
Throw-ins
18	23
Fouls
10	17
Tackles
71% (15/21)	57% (8/14)
Duels won
75	41
Clearances
34	24
Interceptions
8	19
Errors leading to shot
2	0
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
0	1
xGOT faced
0.09	2.24
Goals prevented
-0.91	-1.76

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', Mazraoui N. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Jauregizar M. ⚽,
39', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
59', Casemiro 🟨,
61', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Prados Diaz B. ↑,
62', Gorosabel A. ↓, de Marcos O. ↑,
62', Djalo A. ↓, Olabarrieta A. ↑,
62', Mazraoui N. ↓, Shaw L. ↑,
62', Ugarte M. ↓, Mount M. ↑,
62', Garnacho A. ↓, Diallo A. ↑,
67', Gomez U. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Mount M. ⚽, Yoro L. (A),
73', Prados Diaz B. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
78', Nunez U. 🟨,
78', Berenguer A. 🟨,
80', 2 - 1, Casemiro ⚽, Fernandes B. (A),
81', Lindelof V. ↓, Amass H. ↑,
81', Casemiro ↓, Mainoo K. ↑,
85', 3 - 1, Hojlund R. ⚽, Diallo A. (A),
89', Sannadi M. 🟨,
90+1', Dorgu P. 🟨,
90+1', 4 - 1, Mount M. ⚽,

Chances of winning

Manchester United
51%

Draw
26.4%

Athletic Bilbao
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

26.4%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.08)	3.62 ↓ (3.64)	4.22 ↑ (3.51)	4.2% (4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao?

Users Predictions: 91 users predict this event. Man Utd will win (votes: 37 - 40.7%). Athletic will win (votes: 37 - 40.7%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 18.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man Utd: 30.6% – 50.8%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 17 high ROI users predict this event. Man Utd (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Athletic (votes: 10 - 58.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH +0.25 - Athletic (votes: 4 - 100%).

AH +0.5 - Athletic (votes: 5 - 100%).

AH +1 - Athletic (votes: 5 - 100%).

AH +0.75 - Athletic (votes: 5 - 100%).

AH -0.25 - Athletic (votes: 5 - 100%).

AH -0.5 - Athletic (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

AH 0 - Athletic (votes: 9 - 100%).

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%).

BTS - yes (votes: 13 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

1st leg result: 3-0. 2nd leg.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Man Utd may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Man Utd might have a minor edge in this game.
There will not play in Man Utd: Dalot D. (Calf Injury) Heaven A. (Ankle Injury) Martinez Li. (Knee Injury) Obi C. (Inactive) Zirkzee J. (Hamstring Injury)
There will not play in Athletic: Sancet O. (Muscle Injury) Vivian D. (Red Card) Williams I. (Muscle Injury) Williams N. (Pelvis Injury)
There are questionable in Man Utd: de Ligt M. (Knee Injury)
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Man Utd won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Man Utd won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

How many head-to-head matches has Manchester United won against Athletic Bilbao?

Manchester United has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Athletic Bilbao won against Manchester United?

Athletic Bilbao has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao were as follows:

01.05.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United 0:3

06.08.2023 Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao 1:1

Latest results of Manchester United

04.05.2025 Brentford - Manchester United 4:3 ✺

01.05.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United 0:3 ✺

27.04.2025 Bournemouth - Manchester United 1:1 ✺

20.04.2025 Manchester United - Wolverhampton Wanderers 0:1 ✺

17.04.2025 Manchester United - Lyon 5:4 ✺

Latest results of Athletic Bilbao

04.05.2025 Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao 0:0 ✺

01.05.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United 0:3 ✺

23.04.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Las Palmas 1:0 ✺

20.04.2025 Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 1:0 ✺

17.04.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Glasgow Rangers 2:0 ✺

Draw

2025/26

1/8-finals

1	Hamrun	Bye
4	Bye	Maccabi Tel Aviv
8	Bye	Dyn. Kyiv
9	Shkendija	Bye
16	Bye	Ludogorets
17	Slovan Bratislava	Bye
24	Bye	Young Boys
25	Malmo FF	Bye
32	Bye	Sigma Olomouc
33	Panathinaikos	Bye
35	Besiktas	Bye
36	Shakhtar Donetsk	Ilves	0 : 0, 6 : 0
40	Bye	Samsunspor
41	Aberdeen	Bye
45	FCSB	Bye
48	Bye	Drita
49	Lech Poznan	Bye
56	Bye	Genk
57	Fredrikstad	Bye
59	Midtjylland	Bye
60	Bye	Hibernian
61	RFS	Bye
64	Bye	KuPS
65	Lincoln Red Imps	Bye
68	Bye	Noah
69	Lugano	Bye
70	Paks	CFR Cluj	0 : 3, 0 : 0
71	Levski Sofia	H. Beer Sheva	2 : 1, 0 : 0
72	Bye	Braga
73	Zrinjski	Bye
76	Bye	Breidablik
77	Servette	Bye
79	Sheriff Tiraspol	Prishtina	1 : 2, 4 : 0
80	Bye	Utrecht
81	Anderlecht	Bye
82	Trnava	Hacken	2 : 2, 0 : 1
84	Bye	Brann
85	Sabah Baku	Celje	3 : 3, 2 : 3
86	AEK Larnaca	Partizan	2 : 2, 1 : 0
87	Ostrava	Bye
88	Legia	Aktobe	1 : 0, 1 : 0
89	Rijeka	Bye
92	Bye	Shelbourne
93	PAOK	Bye
96	Bye	Wolfsberger AC

Quarter-finals

1	Hamrun	Bye
2	Bye	Maccabi Tel Aviv
4	Bye	Dyn. Kyiv
5	Shkendija	Bye
8	Bye	Ludogorets
9	Slovan Bratislava	Bye
12	Bye	Young Boys
13	Malmo FF	Bye
16	Bye	Sigma Olomouc
17	Panathinaikos	Bye
18	Besiktas	Shakhtar Donetsk	0 : 2, 2 : 4
20	Bye	Samsunspor
21	Aberdeen	Bye
23	FCSB	Bye
24	Bye	Drita
25	Lech Poznan	Bye
28	Bye	Genk
29	Fredrikstad	Bye
30	Midtjylland	Hibernian	2 : 1, 1 : 1
31	RFS	Bye
32	Bye	KuPS
33	Lincoln Red Imps	Bye
34	Bye	Noah
35	Lugano	CFR Cluj	0 : 1, 0 : 0
36	Levski Sofia	Braga	0 : 1, 0 : 0
37	Zrinjski	Bye
38	Bye	Breidablik
39	Servette	Bye
40	Sheriff Tiraspol	Utrecht	1 : 4, 1 : 3
41	Anderlecht	Hacken	1 : 3, 1 : 0
42	Bye	Brann
43	Celje	AEK Larnaca	1 : 2, 1 : 1
44	Ostrava	Legia	1 : 2, 2 : 2
45	Rijeka	Bye
46	Bye	Shelbourne
47	PAOK	Bye
48	Bye	Wolfsberger AC

Semi-finals

1	Hamrun	Maccabi Tel Aviv	1 : 2
2	Bye	Dyn. Kyiv
3	Shkendija	Bye
4	Bye	Ludogorets
5	Slovan Bratislava	Bye
6	Bye	Young Boys
7	Malmo FF	Bye
8	Bye	Sigma Olomouc
9	Panathinaikos	Shakhtar Donetsk	0 : 0
10	Bye	Samsunspor
11	Aberdeen	Bye
12	FCSB	Drita	3 : 2
13	Lech Poznan	Bye
14	Bye	Genk
15	Fredrikstad	Midtjylland	1 : 3
16	RFS	KuPS	1 : 2
17	Lincoln Red Imps	Noah	1 : 1
18	CFR Cluj	Braga	1 : 2
19	Zrinjski	Breidablik	1 : 1
20	Servette	Utrecht	1 : 3
21	Hacken	Brann	0 : 2
22	AEK Larnaca	Legia	4 : 1
23	Rijeka	Shelbourne	3 : 1, 1 : 2
24	PAOK	Wolfsberger AC	0 : 0

Final

1	TBD #1	Dyn. Kyiv
2	Shkendija	Ludogorets
3	Slovan Bratislava	Young Boys
4	Malmo FF	Sigma Olomouc
5	TBD #9	Samsunspor
6	Aberdeen	TBD #12
7	Lech Poznan	Genk
8	TBD #15	TBD #16
9	TBD #17	TBD #18
10	TBD #19	TBD #20
11	TBD #21	TBD #22
12	Rijeka	TBD #24

Which TV channels are streaming of Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Afghanistan	Meraj Sport
Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, Q Arena Asia, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	RTL, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	Canvas, Play Sports 1, RTBF Tipik, VRT Canvas
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Cyprus	RIK 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, Free, New World TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Universal
Germany	RTL, RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 2
Hungary	M4 Sport
Iceland	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 3
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Ireland	Premier Sports 1 ROI
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	Wowow Prime
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	RTK 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	Claro Sports, Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Canal+, Sporza, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Papua-new-guinea	TVWan Sports
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-africa	SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, RTL, RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF 2, SRF 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii, TRT 1, TRT Spor
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+, Sport 24 At Sea, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Uzbekistan	Zor TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus, ON Sport, TV 360
World	VIX App