Eldense vs Málaga: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

11/05/2025 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat (Elda).

: LaLiga2 - Round 39
Referee: Galech I. (Esp)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.22	0.42
Ball Possession
55%	45%
Total shots
17	5
Shots on target
5	1
Big Chances
5	1
Corner Kicks
5	3
Passes
84% (319/382)	72% (241/336)
Yellow Cards
2	0
Red Cards
1	1
Expected Goals (xG)
2.22	0.42
xG on target (xGOT)
1.16	0.14
Total shots
17	5
Shots on target
5	1
Shots off target
9	3
Blocked Shots
3	1
Shots inside the Box
15	5
Shots outside the Box
2	0
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
5	1
Corner Kicks
5	3
Touches in opposition box
40	16
Accurate through passes
2	0
Offsides
2	2
Free Kicks
6	24
Passes
84% (319/382)	72% (241/336)
Long passes
50% (32/64)	34% (20/58)
Passes in final third
76% (115/151)	51% (41/81)
Crosses
23% (9/40)	33% (4/12)
Expected assists (xA)
1.92	0.55
Throw-ins
17	17
Fouls
24	6
Tackles
67% (10/15)	67% (10/15)
Duels won
42	55
Clearances
21	31
Interceptions
12	6
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	4
xGOT faced
0.14	1.16
Goals prevented
0.14	0.16

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Galilea E. 🟥,
31', Cordero A. ↓, Pastor A. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gamez F. ↓, Ortuno J. ↑,
61', Ortuno J. 🟨,
63', 1 - 0, Ortuno J. ⚽, Ortuno S. (A),
67', Lobete J. ↓, Dioni ↑,
67', Murillo D. ↓, Puga C. ↑,
68', Merino I. ↓, Molina M. ↑,
71', Collado D. ↓, Parra R. ↑,
79', Llabres J. ↓, Chapela I. ↑,
79', Gassama S. ↓, Fede ↑,
82', Ortuno S. 🟨,
85', Larrubia D. ↓, Rodriguez R. ↑,
88', Ortuno S. ↓, Bernal A. ↑,
90+7', Ortuno J. 🟥,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/58uhrcdw

Chances of winning

Eldense
47.1%

Draw
28%

Málaga
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

27.5%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

29.8%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Eldense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Eldense than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Eldense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Málaga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Eldense - Málaga Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.82)	3.35 ↓ (3.4)	3.8 ↓ (4.47)	6.2% (6.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Eldense - Málaga?

The most likely score is 1:0.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 15).
Recent form of Eldense has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Málaga's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Eldense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Eldense is seen as the favorite.
There will not play in Eldense: Mendez D. (Injury) Pina (Injury)
There will not play in Málaga: Abaida H. (Hamstring Injury) Enriquez R. (Knee Injury) Lorenzo D. (Inactive) Ochoa A. (Injury)
There are questionable in Eldense: Masca (Injury) Monsalve N. (Personal Reasons)
There are questionable in Málaga: Medina K. (Injury)
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Eldense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).

How many head-to-head matches has Eldense won against Málaga?

Eldense has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Málaga won against Eldense?

Málaga has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Eldense - Málaga were as follows:

18.12.2024 Málaga - Eldense 3:0

06.12.2023 Málaga - Eldense 1:0

Latest results of Eldense

04.05.2025 Almería - Eldense 5:0 ✺

26.04.2025 Eldense - Córdoba 1:1 ✺

19.04.2025 Ferrol - Eldense 1:0 ✺

13.04.2025 Eldense - Sporting de Gijón 1:2 ✺

05.04.2025 Cartagena - Eldense 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Málaga

03.05.2025 Málaga - Granada 1:0 ✺

27.04.2025 Málaga - Castellón 1:0 ✺

21.04.2025 Eibar - Málaga 2:2 ✺

14.04.2025 Huesca - Málaga 1:0 ✺

06.04.2025 Málaga - Córdoba 0:1 ✺

Spanish LaLiga2 Table

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Levante	42	22	13	7	69:42	27	79
2	Elche	42	22	11	9	59:34	25	77
3	R. Oviedo	42	21	12	9	56:42	14	75
4	Mirandes	42	22	9	11	59:40	19	75
5	Racing Santander	42	20	11	11	65:51	14	71
6	Almeria	42	19	12	11	72:55	17	69
7	Granada CF	42	18	11	13	65:54	11	65
8	Huesca	42	18	10	14	58:49	9	64
9	Eibar	42	15	13	14	44:41	3	58
10	Albacete	42	15	13	14	57:57	0	58
11	Gijon	42	14	14	14	57:54	3	56
12	Burgos CF	42	15	10	17	41:48	-7	55
13	Cadiz CF	42	14	13	15	55:53	2	55
14	Cordoba	42	14	13	15	59:63	-4	55
15	Dep. La Coruna	42	13	14	15	56:54	2	53
16	Malaga	42	12	17	13	42:46	-4	53
17	Castellon	42	14	11	17	65:63	2	53
18	Zaragoza	42	13	12	17	56:63	-7	51
19	Eldense	42	11	12	19	44:63	-19	45
20	Tenerife	42	8	12	22	35:55	-20	36
21	Racing Club Ferrol	42	6	12	24	22:64	-42	30
22	FC Cartagena SAD	42	6	5	31	33:78	-45	23

      Promotion ~ LaLiga
      Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Relegation

Which TV channels are streaming of Eldense - Málaga?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Argentina	Dsports 9
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 9
Ecuador	DSports 9
India	GXR World
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DSports 9
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, GolStadium, LaLiga Hypermotion, LaLiga TV Bar 3