Mainz vs Fiorentina: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

06/11/2025 at 12:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Mewa Arena (Mainz).

: Conference League - League phase - Round 3
Referee: Visser L. (Bel)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.66	1.56
Ball Possession
44%	56%
Total shots
13	12
Shots on target
4	4
Big Chances
3	4
Corner Kicks
3	2
Passes
72% (273/381)	78% (381/491)
Yellow Cards
3	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.66	1.56
xG on target (xGOT)
1.22	1.26
Total shots
13	12
Shots on target
4	4
Shots off target
6	5
Blocked Shots
3	3
Shots inside the Box
11	12
Shots outside the Box
2	0
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
3	4
Corner Kicks
3	2
Touches in opposition box
27	17
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	1
Free Kicks
12	19
Passes
72% (273/381)	78% (381/491)
Long passes
37% (22/60)	44% (21/48)
Passes in final third
56% (79/140)	61% (47/77)
Crosses
21% (3/14)	43% (3/7)
Expected assists (xA)
0.80	1.14
Throw-ins
20	21
Fouls
19	12
Tackles
47% (7/15)	67% (8/12)
Duels won
61	65
Clearances
10	33
Interceptions
17	10
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
1	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	2
xGOT faced
1.26	1.22
Goals prevented
0.26	-0.78

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Sohm S. ⚽, Piccoli R. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Mwene P. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
48', Maloney L. 🟨,
50', Ndour C. 🟨,
59', Ndour C. ↓, Mandragora R. ↑,
59', Piccoli R. ↓, Kean M. ↑,
60', Maloney L. ↓, Sano K. ↑,
60', Sieb A. ↓, Lee Jae-Sung ↑,
62', Nebel P. 🟨,
63', Mari P. 🟨,
65', Nebel P. ↓, Hollerbach B. ↑,
67', Amiri N. 🟨,
68', 1 - 1, Hollerbach B. ⚽, Lee Jae-Sung (A),
69', Mari P. ↓, Comuzzo P. ↑,
81', Amiri N. ↓, Boving W. ↑,
85', Sohm S. ↓, Fagioli N. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽, Sano K. (A),

Chances of winning

Mainz
43%

Draw
29.2%

Fiorentina
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

29.9%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

29.7%

31.1%

Mainz - Fiorentina Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.41)	3.27 ↑ (3.13)	3.41 ↑ (2.99)	4.8% (6.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Mainz - Fiorentina?

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 17 - 73.9%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 3 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 56% – 91.8%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

DC - Fiorentina (1.64) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Fiorentina (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 1 - 25%). Fiorentina (votes: 3 - 75%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Both teams are currently in poor form.
Recently, Mainz has had a series of home games.
Mainz could have a small edge in this match.
There will not play in Mainz: Bos K. (Inactive) Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Leitsch M. (Illness) Tauer N. (Inactive)
There will not play in Fiorentina: Gosens R. (Muscle Injury) Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Sabiri A. (Inactive)
Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Fiorentina?

Mainz has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Fiorentina won against Mainz?

Fiorentina has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Fiorentina were as follows:

Latest results of Mainz

01.11.2025 Mainz - Werder Bremen 1:1 ✺

29.10.2025 Mainz - Stuttgart 0:2 ✺

26.10.2025 Stuttgart - Mainz 2:1 ✺

23.10.2025 Mainz - Zrinjski Mostar 1:0 ✺

18.10.2025 Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen 3:4 ✺

Latest results of Fiorentina

02.11.2025 Fiorentina - Lecce 0:1 ✺

29.10.2025 Inter Milan - Fiorentina 3:0 ✺

26.10.2025 Fiorentina - Bologna 2:2 ✺

23.10.2025 Rapid Wien - Fiorentina 0:3 ✺

19.10.2025 Milan - Fiorentina 2:1 ✺

UEFA Europa Conference League Table

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Strasbourg	6	5	1	0	11:5	6	16
2	Rakow	6	4	2	0	9:2	7	14
3	AEK Athens	6	4	1	1	14:7	7	13
4	Sparta Prague	6	4	1	1	10:3	7	13
5	Rayo Vallecano	6	4	1	1	13:7	6	13
6	Shakhtar Donetsk	6	4	1	1	10:5	5	13
7	Mainz	6	4	1	1	7:3	4	13
8	AEK Larnaca	6	3	3	0	7:1	6	12
9	Lausanne	6	3	2	1	6:3	3	11
10	Crystal Palace	6	3	1	2	11:6	5	10
11	Lech Poznan	6	3	1	2	12:8	4	10
12	Samsunspor	6	3	1	2	10:6	4	10
13	Celje	6	3	1	2	8:7	1	10
14	AZ Alkmaar	6	3	1	2	7:7	0	10
15	Fiorentina	6	3	0	3	8:5	3	9
16	Rijeka	6	2	3	1	5:2	3	9
17	Jagiellonia	6	2	3	1	5:4	1	9
18	Omonia	6	2	2	2	5:4	1	8
19	Noah	6	2	2	2	6:7	-1	8
20	Drita	6	2	2	2	4:8	-4	8
21	KuPS	6	1	4	1	6:5	1	7
22	Shkendija	6	2	1	3	4:5	-1	7
23	Zrinjski	6	2	1	3	8:10	-2	7
24	Sigma Olomouc	6	2	1	3	7:9	-2	7
25	Univ. Craiova	6	2	1	3	6:8	-2	7
26	Lincoln Red Imps	6	2	1	3	7:15	-8	7
27	Dyn. Kyiv	6	2	0	4	9:9	0	6
28	Legia	6	2	0	4	8:8	0	6
29	Slovan Bratislava	6	2	0	4	5:9	-4	6
30	Breidablik	6	1	2	3	6:11	-5	5
31	Shamrock Rovers	6	1	1	4	7:13	-6	4
32	Hacken	6	0	3	3	5:8	-3	3
33	Hamrun	6	1	0	5	4:11	-7	3
34	Shelbourne	6	0	2	4	0:7	-7	2
35	Aberdeen	6	0	2	4	3:14	-11	2
36	SK Rapid	6	0	1	5	3:14	-11	1

Promotion ~ Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Promotion ~ Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

Which TV channels are streaming of Mainz - Fiorentina?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	New World Sport 7, New World Sport App
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 4
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech-republic	Sport 3
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 11
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 3
Germany	RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Iceland	SÝN Sport 2, Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	Disney+
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 11
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 15, Blue Sport 15
Thailand	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 6, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus